Posted on 03/13/2004 10:26:14 AM PST by Dog
President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.
The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.
In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.
A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.
now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.
Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.
In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.
"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.
Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.
The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.
Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."
In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.
In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided.
In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.
Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.
"Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur.
The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.
We may see it that way, but most American's aren't hearing about the real John Kerry. The Bush message got out for the first time this week and was disseminated mainly in battleground/tossup states. I think people are reacting to these initial Bush ads that correct the multiitude of misperceptions built up by the librat primary campaign. The media conglomerate of ABCNNBCBSMSNBC isn't telling the true facts about John Kerry's politics. Outside of a few supporters of Bush`s in the media and of course the numerous pro-Bush internet news websites, just how have the people been shown the real John Kerry? Fox News deserves some credit, but not all of America is watching Your World, Special Report, The Factor and Hannity and Colmes. $10 million in Bush campaign ads made a big difference. It's important for the Bush campaign to keep up the pressure. They'll get no help from Peter, Tom and Captain Dan.
HA! .. what will the do about Nader .. if he has 6% now .. you know it's only going to grow later
Exactly
Given the facts and circumstances of the day, it is just plain negative or delusional thinking that Kerry could beat Bush.
God bless the USA, and keep His watchful and protective hand on our leaders, soldiers and citizens.
I expect nothing except what you described. The media is mostly spin and lies. Heap ridicule on them, for the media is but a propaganda ministry.
That is the kind of maneuver that got us Clinton in 1990 -- people sending "messages" to President Bush I. The only message you send is one of discouragement to our President and encouragement to his (and the nation's) enemies.
I'll concede "eye opener," but the media has never been objective. And, I don't hold it to be so -- what irks me is their lie that they are objective, or that they have some obligation to be objective. They ought to all come out of the closet and "declare" they are advocates for a particular point of view, and leave it to the people to sort out. That's the "old way."
Most of the mental pygmies that were polled during Kept Poodle Boy's televised primary wins actually thought he had won the presidency.
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