Posted on 03/13/2004 8:46:43 AM PST by ken5050
Umagine, if you will, the front page of the NY Times the day after the election:
Bush defeats Kerry. Margin greater than polls indicated.
Sen Clinton seen as favorite for 2008 nomination.
Sadly, welcome to the 24/7/4 year presdiential election cycle. Yes, we're all focused on this fall's race, but a good chess player, and political strategist, thinks many moves ahead. That's why a close examination of the tea leaves tells us that Hillary will NOT run for re-election in 2006. Indeed, it woulod be a huge surprise if she did. Here's why...
However, there's the small problem of her re-election to the Senate. She'd have to announce her candidacy for the Senate BEFORE running for the presidency. Yet if she says she's running for re-election, the FIRST question she will be asked is "Will you serve out your term/will you run for President?" One can't assume that even NY's would swallow that much duplicity.
Thus, one might expect her to announce her re-election, and delay any mention of the Presidency till after the '06 election. Problem is, that's an impossibility. It can't be done. And, if Rudy does decide to enter the race, if Hillary is going to bail out of the Senate, the announcement, and the rationale, has to be made well in advance of Rudy's candidacy. Even if he has no intention of really running, he can drive her nuts just by pretending to think about getting in, for if he were to run against her, a defeat would finish her politically. Indeed, even if she won a close race, it would prove that she doesn't have a chance to win on a national ticket.
Thus, unless she acts soon after the election, she'll lose the chance to define and shape the time line, to control the issue. And the Clintons have always been about control, remember.
Another "plus", if you will, for Hillary. The expected GOP gain of Senate seats this fall will make it much easier for her not to run, and indeed, to resign her Senate seat shortly after the '04 election. It won't effect control of the Senate. Govenor Pataki will appoint a Republican to fill the seat (Pataki probably would love to resign as Governor, and have himself appointed as senator, but that's just way too obvious. He'd never hold the seat in '06. He knows it. So, he'll appoint Rudy.)
OK, there you have it. The plot outline. What we need is the why, the rationale to be sold to the public, and how it can be used to help Hillary. And, my friends, if you know anything about the Clintons, it's really easy to figure out....the layers of deceit and desception are really transparent.
Much has been made of the fact that Bubba's memoirs are due to be published this fall, thus interjecting him back into the election, and distracting attention from Kerry. True, obviously, but there's another parallel result. It's going to reopen a lot of old wounds, and get folks talking about Slick's philandering...and you can bet that since he left the White House in 2002, he hasn't really kept it zipped inside his pants. He's been discrete since then, and he's gotten a pass from the media so far, but look for the many women to start to surface for their 15 minutes of fame, and maybe a Playboy centerfold. And, of course, the attendant shame an embarassment for Hillary.
What few have commented upon, to date, is the undercurrent sense in the American public that whatever they think of Hillary, the idea of letting Bill back into the White House is repugnant. Would President Hillary install a new sink next to the Oval Office? Would first-spouse Bill be allowed to keep a humidor in his bedroom? The list goes on and on..the hits just keep on coming. See, many in America opposed impeachment..they felt he was elected, it wasn't grounds for removel, but the idea of choosing to put him BACK into the White House will NOT go over well witht he majority of Americans. They won't knowingly allow themselves to let the Clintons turn the White House into a 4 year long comedy club and soap opera. Nope, if Hillary goes back to the WH, she goes solo. Indeed, she's realized this for years.
So, how does it play out?
Well, Kerry loses, the GOP gains a few seats int he Senate, the world is talking about Bill's book, and the women start to suface, and Katie Couric is crying endlessly about how Hillary is being shamed and besmirched. So, I'd say, about March 2005, she announces that she and the ex-President have separated, and she hopes that the American people will respect their privacy during this difficult time. (BTW, look for Bubba to do a "Rudy" one better, and move into either Donald Trump's or Derek Jeter's apartment for a few months..he could go to California and bunk with David Geffen, but the Dems already have the gay vote locked up. Rosie will also offer a spare bedroom. And were he to go to California, would Babs boot Brolin?)
Saint Haillary will now go into selcusion, refuse all interviews, and make no comments for a few months, when, ta da..jus before summer 2005, she'll go off to Martha's Vineyard, and announce that she will NOT seek re-election to her Senate seat, because she needs time to reassess her life and her priorities. Indeed, because she can't devote all her time and energy to the needs of her constituents, she's resigning from the Senate.
Can anyone say "penultimate media circus?" ten million times?..
OK, so how do we then re-inroduce Hillary back tot he American people in a favorable light?..well, aside from a basket full of puppies, what's more appealing than...a WEDDING!!!!! not hers!!
Righto, sportsfans..look for Chelsea and Ian to get engaged, and another media frenzy to errupt. And Hillary to throw herself into the whirlwind of planning for the wedding. And maybe, by this time, Martha Stewart will be out of prison, and looking for a position as a fledgling wedding consultant. And, of course, the million $$$ question, how will Bill and Hill behave at the wedding, on the reception line, and will Bill bring a date?Millions of trees will die to feed the tabloid presses.
Now here's where the timing is crucial. Depending upon how active John Edwards has been ( and more about him below )Hillary will at some time feel "compelled" to return to the public eye and speak out on some issue, either a real one, or a contrived issue, because "no one else " is effectively doing so..
And from there, it's an easy segue to another carefully stagemanaged national "listening" tour, as Hilalry responds to an ever-growing demand that she return to public life and seek the presidency in 2008. And look for Chelsea to babble that she's more than willing to defer her wedding to work on her Mom's campaign, and oh yeah, it'd be waaaay cool to be married in the White House, dontcha think?
And of course, the beauty of this scenario is that it allows for the greatest Dem politican of the time to return to the fold, and help his soon to be ex-wife. Bill Clinton announces publicly, in the biggest "mea maxima culpa" of all time, on a primetime TV interview, that he was wrong, he cheated and hurt his wife, they're getting an amicable divorce, but the American people must not, and should not, and are way to decent to blame Hillary for his sins, and that she's the smartest woman in the world, and would make a wonderful president, and the best thing the American people could do woudl be to vote for her, and if they'll allow him, he's going to devote all his energy and time in the coming year to campaing for her all over the country, and agin, the American people are fair and decent and shouldn't blame her for his mistakes and failures....
And thus, any issues relating to anything that occured prior to 2004 are off the table, and any efforts to invoke, or discuss them, can be dismissed as "old-hat, tired politics of personal destruction".
OK, about this time, you're either rolling on the floor with laughter, or pounding your keyboard, but if you think this story strange or in any way improbable, just look at what the Clintons have done in the past. Heck, this one's a piece of cake by comparison.
And to just sum it all up, here's why the pieces all fit together. First, to recall the obvious, in 2008, it's an OPEN SEAT..no imcumbent, and the Dems don't have any political stars on the horizon. Which is why Edwards has run a brilliant campaign this time out. He knew he couldn't get the nomination now, heck, he didn't want it, because he knew that Bush couldn't be beaten. So what did he accomplish?
1. He avoided a senate race in 2004, which he probably would have lost, and thus been finished politically.
2. Even if he held his seat, all he'd have to look forward to is 4 years in the minority, and having to be the point man in the Senate Judiciary committee, opposing a whole bunch of judicial nomination. And the coming vacancies on the Supreme Court wil make the prior hearings seem like child's play. Who need its?
3. As W. successfully wages war on Terrorism, Edwards, out of the Senate, can avoid all those pesky votes, not to mention those on the cultural issues, like gay marriage, that the Senate will face. He can hide in plain sight, so to speak.
4. Most importantly, he can run for the WH in 2008 not by confronting Hillary, which he knows is impossibly to do, but rather by letting others point out the obvious. The Dems ran Kerry, a northeast liberal in 2004, and lost, as well as losing more seats in the House and Senate. So can the party reqlly afford to go down that road again. If you want an alternative, I'm it. Indeed, he's the only southern Dem with any national name recognition. That's what he got in this primary season. A national image. Lots of exposure. Remember his best campaign line. "I can beat George Bush. I speak like him. If you nominate me I'll give you the White House." Maybe the Dems, especially the Super delegates, will decide to listen next time out. He can't fight Hillary in the primaries. He'd lose, and indeed, she doesn't want to go the primary route.
So, the obvious conclusion. It's Hillary/Edwards, in '08, probably locked up before tghe '06 midterm elections. They'll both be running from OUTSIDE the Beltway, or try to anyways. And if Hillary doesn't play well and poll well, and of course that depends in part on the GOP nominee, then look for her to step aside, and Edwards to take the top spot. And want his VP nominee...Congressman Harold Ford. in 2008, he'll be old enough to run.
Wesley Pruden did a little speculating in yesterday's column, as well (excerpted):
... The 2004 election is pivotal in the ambitions of the Clintons, who have successfully embedded sleeper agents across the party landscape. If Hillary has ambitions to recover the White House for the fun couple, it's necessary to make sure there is no Kerry presidency — unless she is a part of it. If she is a part of it, as the putative vice president, she will allow Monsieur Kerry only a share of the limelight.
If she is not a part of the "Love-bug ticket" — emulating the tiny Gulf coastal marshflies (Plecia nearctica) who fly locked in permanent embrace, the smaller male backward with the larger, stronger female in control of the flight plan — there probably won't be a Kerry presidency. There might not be one even with her help. Life can be unfair, flying backward.
The controlling arithmetic is simple and cast in iron. Hillary is 57 now. Four years hence she will be 61, moving swiftly past the shady side of prime for Hollywood leading ladies, high-fashion consultants and female presidential candidates.
If Monsieur Kerry runs without her, and wins, that leaves her on the sidelines cruising toward 65 and becoming eligible for Social Security in 2012, when the second Kerry term ends. ... link
Quel horreur!
Save this post for 2008:
If hillary clinton runs for president she will lose...big...but only after one of the most ridiculously vicious and partisan campaigns known in the history of electorial politics.
Good point. We cannot act as if she's already won. If she runs, instead of wringing our hands, we should be doing everything necessary to ensure her defeat.
Which wiil be a mighty task indeed since the entire elite media establishment will attempt to make us believe that holding an election is not necessary since any other candidate pales in comparison to the amazing Hillary!.
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