The Bush Administration’s stances on China

Since coming into office the Bush Administration has had relatively interesting stances on China. In many ways Bush policies are in contrast to historical realities of US-China relations, the main difference being straight forwardness and clarity to an unprecedented level. In other ways the Bush Administration’s policies are rooted in history. This seeming contrast is not due to a change in policy by this Administration, but by other Administration’s deviance from US-China historical relations and the often time waffling on issues. In this article I wish to discuss and describe many of the factors, actions, reasons, and reasoning behind this Administration’s mode of operations.

The first thing to point out is a solid belief in a historical standard regarding China. In previous Administrations, including, but not limited to the Clinton Administration, China fell into a fuzzy area of foreign policy. In essence China was almost a tool of convenience and the basis for relations with China were not fundamental, nor based on background. In the Bush Administration this was done away with. The powers that be actually began to make use of a large and talented pool of actual experts to make decisions. This was not limited to the Administration, but included Congress also.

One of the main strengths of the current policies, and even the underlying process for making policy, is the use of real experts who understand the intricacies of history, but who refuse to be drawn into the many side tracked debates made about China. Before, there was the “red team” and the “blue team”. You were either for China, or you hated China. Being ‘for’ often ultimately meant and resulted in excusing all sorts of bad behavior from China. Being against meant China could never do anything right. Not only the Bush Administration, but Congress also has done a lot to break this bad cycle.

The Clinton years could easily be considered the most unprincipled years of US China relations. Many decisions were made on a sheer political level without much consideration given to history. It was that low point, combined with dangerous outbursts from China, the Cox Report, China’s emergence on the world economic stage, accusations of spying, biased “intelligence” reporting, and whole host of issues that inspired Congress to create the US China Commission. The reforms instituted largely tried to de-politicize internal dealings regarding China. In recent years it has gone from a personal attack fest to much more of an academic debate. In that professionally conducted academic debate there is strength.

The second point is the Bush Administration has refused to try to ‘differentiate’ itself from previous Administrations in sheer political means. It is operating fundamentally differently, much of which is mentioned above, which that speaks volumes in and of, and for itself.

What I refer to is the Bush Administration has refrained from falling into ‘other politicians did this, so we have to do that’ type of differentiation, or rather disagreeing or changing just for the sake of political purposes. Decisions are made using a much more academic methodology. Again, there has been a systematic and recognizable effort to make our dealings with China seamless, historically consistent, and based on academics.

Doing things in this manner allows us to really tackle the meat and potatoes issues with China. Engagement of this sort means real engagement. One government official said ‘engagement no longer means just drinking tea and playing ping pong’. Before hard issues were not met head on and hence relations were actually rather weak. Everyone was in essence walking on egg shells on both sides of the Pacific. The Bush Administration has succeeded in getting a lot of things previously off limits up and out on the table. Of course that came from shaking up the box. Nothing was considered fragile, not even the fragile feelings of the Chinese. We quite simply ‘let ‘em have it’. The airplane collision aided in this process and galvanized many in Washington for a much more firm stance on China. Politicians and Intelligence officials were forced out of their ideological shells with that one incident. In short, currently the US is dealing with China in a much more forthright manner. Admittedly some of it was an in your face ‘discussion’ often accompanied by threats of one sort or another—from the US. Rightfully though, much of it was not joking. It was serious and taken as such.

Because of those developments China has been much more behaved. In the last couple of years China has been a much more civil and less prone to vile rhetoric. Now in the post 9-11 American mind—and China and the Bush Administration are both very aware of this—America will not be threatened. Because of this the Administration is taking care not to let things spiral downward. Both sides are realizing that we have relations and long term interests in mind. The Bush Administration, while employing the new form of ‘engagement’ is taking the long view of trying to maintain good relations. Mostly they are trying to be civil as of late. This is why the Administration is not taking an ultra hard line on China. They are trying to remain reasonable where many others would not.

One of the issues currently being tackled is regarding currency. While many do not see progress, there in fact has been much. The fact that they are even discussing this in real official talks is progress, but it goes far beyond that. However, the Bush Administration is being realistic, but is also results oriented on this issue. China will reform its system as a direct result of American pressure. Period. Technical talks on how to reform have just been concluded. It is not, nor ever will be a one shot deal, but change is on the way. The Bush Administration is being realistic in recognizing that China cannot turn on a dime. The US is not merely pressuring and demanding, but assisting in technical issues for the ultimate goal to take place. To the layman it might look like nothing is happening, but to the trained eye they are going well into uncharted territory. China knows if they don’t there will be serious consequences.

In short though, the Bush Administration is currently resisting taking too hard of a line on China. For the time being things are cordial. They are doing this in order to prevent a serious downward spiral in relations. This includes issues regarding Taiwan. The Bush Administration is being very aggressive, but is taking pains not to be overly aggressive. They are doing so with relatively short term goals in mind (Korea, currency, war) as well as to maintain a basis for long term relations. In brief, America has taken the role of a mean SOB asshole, but with goals in mind, but also while taking care not to push too far and to have China realize the goals are in their interests too.

In conclusion the US China relationship is currently the most open, and forthright, and productive as it ever has been since normalization. It took carrying a big stick to get there, but the relationship is there and it is producing results.

I believe that the PRC are still behaving very badly in a number of ways. On the subtle side, they continue to displace Western influence in ASEAN, to build superhighways to connect with it (easily convertible to use by tanks, TELs, etc), and, to move Asia away from being dollar oriented. They are a large holder of US debt and the reasons may go far beyond the financial. On the front of overt conflict, they continue their massive esopionage operations and have thousands of front companies in the US. Similarly, by using the Sun Tzu technique of creating a seemingly safe pocket into which to lure an opponent, they have lured US businesses to the PRC where we hire locals and afford even easier ingress of espionage. It is war in the dimensions of espionage and economic power. On the military side, the war preparations continue at a pace only the Chinese truly appreciate, they are so slow that few in the West notice them. I guess I am just a natural pessimist, given thousands of years of history demonstrating the point which international relations always lead to.

In conclusion the US China relationship is currently the most open, and forthright, and productive as it ever has been since normalization.

I would revise this sentence to read:

In conclusion, the US China relationship is currently more open, forthright, and productive than it has ever been since normalization.

Otherwise I find nothing to argue with in it.

WELL done and spot on target!

I believe that the PRC are still behaving very badly in a number of ways.

I don't disagree at all. In fact I know they are acting bad in a whole number of ways. That includes human rights, Hong Kong especially, Taiwan, espionage, etc...

That though isn't my point really. I am far from arguing that China has completely reformed and gone the other way. I am not so much talking about China's changes, but rather ours.

Thanks.

I think you are spot on. Progress is being made (admittedly, there is still much to do). I would take Poohbah's advice (post #12) and place some more examples in you piece (I think that is what tallhappy wants as well).

Thank goodness we didn't get Algore! Its also time to make sure we don't get Kerry.

I understand where Poohbah is coming from. Its a point taken.

Tallhappy on the other hand, unless we march the army from Hong Kong to Beijing and remove the CCP from power, its not considered progress. Everything except that to him is considered a miserable failure.

Since President Bush took office China has changed its tune about hosting N. Korean talks. They have participated in multilateral talks on that issue a number of times. Before, they didn't want to participate, much less host.

China's tone and tune has gone from shrill to not nearly so towards the US and others in their neighborhood. Under Clinton China would have massive outbursts against Japan and everyone else. They even shot missiles over Taiwan. You think they would do that with President Bush?

Much of their vitriolic outburts have been contained at least.

On economic fronts the President has been engaging China more than ever before on its WTO committments among other things. There is a lot of optimism currently about China revaluing the yuan. Not to mention China had a $45 billion bail out.

If we did not push and force China to abide by its agreements they would never do it.

I am not at all saying that China did nothing wrong or especially now ceases to do things wrong.

There are still many outstanding issues. The way that we have been engaging them now though is showing promising signs. If its not enough for some of you, thats just a testament to how little we ever did before. As a comparison to previous times though, we are getting a lot more done with China than ever before.

What's this? You mention results and I ask which you are referring to. You then do answer, but also come up with this cheap shot totally unfair and distorted comment.

Nasty with no reason.

Why are you saying things like this?

I don't think China would have changed a thing if Jiang had remained in power

China hasn't changed a thing since Hu and Wen became the top figureheads.

Everything Mauii mentions was also taking place under Jiang.

It was all also taking place under Clinton.

‘The US China relationship is currently the most open, and forthright, and productive as it has ever been since normalization’.
I’d love this to be true. China is still terra incognita for us. Their whole mindset is absolutely different from ours. We shouldn’t overestimate some visible results for they are mostly well faked illusions. China continues to be a closed society for us while vigorously penetrating America to its benefit. The Chinese lobby and community are almost the most influential here. How about our lobby in China?
I’m being both optimistic and realistic relating China. Here I side with nicollo. Sure they don’t want their economy to be dollar-oriented, and they don’t want Western influence in the ASEAN. In military and economic matters they tend to look more westwards to neighboring Russia. And this makes sense indeed bearing in mind Russia’s huge resources.

There has been much ado about that one line. Keep in mind this is just a rough draft. If I could edit it, I probably would word it differently.

I am far from arguing that China has turned around and became our best friends. They do want us out of Asia, totally. They believe in a 'multi-polar world'. They are screwing with Hong Kong and Taiwan...

I know all of this.

I am not talking about singular issues. Rather I am talking in broader terms. Think regional security. Believe it or not I am not really praising China...other than saying when we force them they are more friendly. That could be brought about via NMD or other means.

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