Kerry edging out Bush (PA: Kerry 47% - W 46%)

TRIBUNE-REVIEW ^ | Wednesday, February 25, 2004 | Debra Erdley

[KQQL]

Pennsylvanians worried about their wallets are giving President Bush cause to worry about their votes. A statewide Keystone Poll released today showed Pennsylvanians increasingly nervous about the economy are boosting the hopes of Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry.

If the election were held tomorrow, 47 percent said they'd vote for Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, and 46 percent for Bush. The remaining 8 percent said they were undecided. The numbers total 101 percent because of rounding.

[Future Useless Eater]

And now that Dean has given up, Kucinich is BREAKING OUT!

In Hawaii, with 99% of the precincts reported, Edwards was in a DISTANT THIRD PLACE, just barely ahead of Howard Dean!

Kerry      46%
Kucinich   30%
Edwards    13%
Dean 	    9%

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Getting out the alienated vote***"You try to find whatever appeals to (young voters) -- like music -- and use that to go after them," said Dan Glickman, director of Harvard University's Institute of Politics. Mainstream Democrats are taking notice. Earlier this month, the buzz over Punkvoter got Burkett invited to a ritzy New York fund-raiser -- he dressed in a powder-blue leisure suit, white shoes and spiked hair -- where he hobnobbed with Democratic fund-raiser George Soros and filmmaker Michael Moore. "I think people were kind of scared to talk to me at first," he said.

But they noticed that Punkvoter.com is getting 8 million hits a month, a following built largely through a below-the-mainstream-radar network and Burkett's curt motto: "We're trying to anger as many people as possible. That's what takes away apathy."

Music for America is hoping to convince young people who were marching in anti-war demonstrations a year ago that "activism by itself won't get anything done," said Josh Koenig, 24, one of the organization's leaders.

"There were hundreds of thousands of people in the streets, and they (the Bush administration) didn't listen," Koenig said. "You have to go through presidential politics to get anything done." ***

[FRgal4u]

If PA, OH, FL is in W's column, this race is over. One PA can withstood a lost in OH. But if PA goes W, I doubt OH will go Ketchup 57.

[reformedliberal]

Is this why Rendell is showing up on FNC in support of Kerry?
My impressions (I have not been following PA) are that Rendell is not that popular. Is that correct?

[reformedliberal]

I agree, but the media manages to induce fear hourly. People are working, their friends and families are working, they have more disposable income,small businesses are doing well, but the perception is of insecurity.

The Dems are trying to sell Kerry on the perception.

[SamAdams76]

This is good news for Bush despite how the Democrats want to spin it. This is a state that Bush lost by several points in 2000. The fact that he is statistically tied with Kerry before his campaign has even started bodes well for him at this point. Pennsylvania is Bush's to lose.

[Ramcat]

"My impressions (I have not been following PA) are that Rendell is not that popular. Is that correct?"

Correct!
He raised taxes and promised a property tax reduction that he's now tying to gambling becoming legal. Not too popular.

For W to be close in PA is great news. In SW PA where I live I saw a sign the other day for a local election that said "Vote Republican, It's Legal"

I wanted to take a picture but by the time I got back somebody tore it down.

[Petronski]

The Keystone Poll was conducted Feb. 19-22 and surveyed 532 of the state's adults, including 398 people who identified themselves as registered voters. The poll was sponsored by the Tribune-Review and several other news organizations statewide.

In other words, it contains no predictive value whatsoever.

[Coop]

I actually think this is good news for Bush.

Very good news, indeed.

[JohnnyZ]

I'm just curious to hear why you are so sure FL will be different in 04 than in 00.

The Jeb factor, for one. In 2000 they'd just passed One Florida, and that probably helped drive the unusually high black turnout. But now people have had time to see that, hey, it wasn't so bad, and realized they didn't have to be scared of life under the Bushes.

[JohnnyZ]

But Gephardt is from MO

Nah, Gep is from St. Louis.

[JohnnyZ]

My impressions (I have not been following PA) are that Rendell is not that popular. Is that correct?

Rendell's job-performance rating has declined steadily from 46 percent last April to 37 percent this month, according to the Keystone Poll by Franklin and Marshall College.

(PA Dem Gov)Rendell's job-approval rating (PLUMMETS)slips, poll shows

[Owen]

If PA is in play, Kerry is in trouble. But he will be in no trouble in any battleground state unless we GOTV. We must insist W's cash not be spent on campaign staff inflated salarys but on GOTV.

Volunteer to drive a rented van in Philly and Pittsburgh, even if you life in Maryland or Ohio. If you live in state that is safe in one direction of the other, volunteer to help in a battleground state. Rent those vans. Deny them to the Dems.

[finnman69]

great news for Bush...he can take PA. The Rats can't win w/o PA.

[finnman69]

real clear politcs has a running tabulation of state poll matchups between Kerry & Bush.

Kerry vs. Bush state matchups

President George Bush vs. Senator John Kerry
Head-to-Head Matchup By State

State	EC Votes	Poll/Date	Bush	Kerry	Spread	2000 Vote
Arizona	10	SUSA (2/18-19)	52%	44%	Bush +8	Bush +6
California	55	LA Times (2/18-22)	40%	53%	Kerry +13	Gore +11
Illinois	21	Rasmussen (2/19)	41%	53%	Kerry +12	Gore +12
-	-	Chicago Trib (2/11-2/17)	38%	52%	Kerry +14	-
Indiana	11	SUSA (2/15-17)	51%	45%	Bush +6	Bush +16
Kansas	6	SUSA (2/9-10)	52%	44%	Bush +8	Bush +21
Kentucky	8	SUSA (2/14-16)	57%	41%	Bush +16	Bush +16
-	-	Bluegrass (1/30-2/4)	55%	38%	Bush +17	-
Michigan	17	SUSA (1/31-2/2)	46%	51%	Kerry +5	Gore +5
New Hampshire	4	Granite State (2/4-12)	38%	53%	Kerry +15	Bush +1
Nevada	5	SUSA (2/11-12)	49%	48%	Bush +1	Bush +4
Pennsylvania	21	Quinnipiac (2/10-16)	45%	50%	Kerry +5	Gore +5
Washington	11	SUSA (2/4-5)	43%	55%	Kerry +12	Gore +5

[AuH2ORepublican]

"he has to win PA + NH + WV"

---

Actually, that would give Kerry 269 EVs, which is not a majority and would throw the election to the House. Go to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1083413/posts?page=55#55 to see why Bush is pretty much a lock to be elected by the House in case no one gets an Electoral College majority.

[fawn796]

"....surveyed 532 of the state's adults, including 398 people who identified themselves as registered voters...."

I always wonder who they ask? No one I know has ever been "surveyed."

[finnman69]

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/prezapp_021804_Final.pdf

THE OHIO POLL*
FOR RELEASE
By: Eric W. Rademacher, Ph.D. February 18, 2004
Kimberly Downing, Ph.D.
Institute for Policy Research
(513) 556-3304
BUSH APPROVAL DROPS TO NEW LOW

Cincinnati, OH--President George W. Bush’s approval rating in Ohio has dipped below 50 percent for the
first time in his presidency.

These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the
University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. The Poll was
conducted between January 30 and February 10, 2004.

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL AT 49 PERCENT
The latest Ohio Poll finds President Bush’s approval rating remains well below the ratings he received in
the early months of 2003. Forty-nine percent of Ohioans approve of the president’s performance, 49
percent disapprove and two percent neither approve nor disapprove.

The president’s approval rating in Ohio continues to be in close proximity to the rating he receives from
the nation as a whole. The most recent national survey conducted by The Gallup Organization placed the
president’s approval rating at 51 percent.
Presidents Reagan and Clinton dipped below the 50 percent approval line multiple times during their
presidencies. President Reagan’s lowest approval rating (46%) was recorded in December 1982.
President Clinton’s lowest approval rating (45%) was recorded in September 1994.

FOR THE FIRST TIME, MAJORITIES DISAPPROVE OF THE
PRESIDENT’S PERFORMANCE IN BOTH FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND THE ECONOMY

In the period between November 2001 and April 2003, President Bush received, on average, the approval
of more than six of ten Ohioans for his performance in foreign affairs (73%) and the economy (64%).
President Bush’s current ratings in these areas fall well below that average. In the latest Ohio Poll,
47 percent of Ohioans approve of the way Bush is handling foreign affairs. Forty percent of state residents
approve of the president’s handling of the economy.
Ohioans’ ratings of the president’s handling of foreign affairs and the economy are now the lowest of his
presidency.

Ohio Poll Methodology
These findings are based on the most recent Ohio Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati from January 30 to February 10, 2004.
A random sample of 842 adults from throughout the state was interviewed by telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.4 percent.

[FReethesheeples]

Nasty John the Waffling French Undertaker, who is behind the atatacks on GWB's 9/11 ad, per NewsMax & the American Spectator & now the NY Post.

Kerry, who is personally endorsed by Yasser Arafat, Haiti's Aristide, Iran's Mullahs, Traitor "Red Jane" Fonda, Kim Jong Il, (& Kim Il Jong), Mugabe, Marxist thug Chavez of Venezuela, Castro of Cuba, & France's Jacques Chirac, is a weapon of mass economic destruction.

He'll destroy the troops in Iraq, the War on Terrorism,

& the U.S. stock market with all his negative talk and whiny-leftist-liberal sour-puss troop-bashing, Bush-bashing, America-bashing talk & self-aggrandizing, ultra-negative sourpuss whiny elitist personality.

[Fresh Wind]

It's interesting that Kerry is already threatening a repeat of the Florida debacle. He is getting his army of lawyers ready for the day after, and is even talking about preemptive actions. The rats must be very worried about Florida.