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Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Eight
Various

Posted on 02/22/2004 2:32:30 PM PST by Dales

Edited on 02/22/2004 3:06:00 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this eighth installment, the random state generator presented me with Indiana, Arizona, South Dakota, New Jersey, and Connecticut.


Indiana
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Bush 57%
Gore 41%

Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
2/15/04 SurveyUSA Link 525 RV 4.2% Bush 51% 45%

Punditry: The SurveyUSA poll is surprisingly close to me. Given the Republican leaning of this state, I expect it to open up to be more along what happened in 2000, although Evan Bayh being Kerry's VP choice would complicate matters. Leans for Bush.


Arizona
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
7/18/03 Behavior Research Center Link 701 Adults 4.3% Bush 55% Unnamed Opponent 41%
1/11/04 Behavior Research Center Link 641 Adults 3.9% Bush 50% Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean) 38%
2/19/04 SurveyUSA Link RV 4.3% Bush 52% Kerry 44%

Punditry: The polls match the results from last time. Leans for Bush.


South Dakota
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Result
Bush 60%
Gore 38%

Background: Another state that only went for the Democrats with Johnson since FDR's second campaign. It has occasionally been close.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
2/5/03 Mason-Dixon NA LV 3.5% Bush 50% Unnamed Democrat 39%

Punditry: I do not anticipate any surprises in South Dakota. Strong Advantage for Bush.


New Jersey
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Gore 56%
Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
9/8/03 Rutgers Link 802 Adults 3.5% Bush 43% Unnamed Democrat 35%
9/15/03 Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind Link 600 RV 4% Bush 36% Unnamed Democrat 29%
1/11/04 Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind Link 600 RV 4% Bush 40% Unnamed Democrat 32%

Punditry: If I had to guess, the next New Jersey poll will show Kerry ahead of Bush. However, it has been very interesting how well Bush's numbers have fared here in the Garden State. While my gut tells me that this is going to change, the numbers indicate that it should as of now be in the Leans for Bush category. I want to see one more poll before I can do that though, given the Clinton/Gore margins. Slight Advantage for Bush.


Connecticut
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Gore 56%
Bush 38%

Background: 3-5-3 in the last 11, with Clinton's first being probably due to the Perot factor.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
3/11/03 Quinnipiac Link RV 3% Bush 37% Unnamed Democrat 51%
7/31/03 Quinnipiac Link RV 3% Bush 37% Unnamed Democrat 51%

Punditry: Compare how in the tri-state area, Bush's support has collapsed in Connecticut but remained high in New Jersey. I am not sure what to make of this, but it is very interesting. Strong Advantage for Democrats.


Summary Table
  Bush Democrat
  Safe Strong Lean Slight Tossup Slight Lean Strong Safe
  ND (3) CO (9) GA (15) NV (5) OR (7) NM (5) CA (55) NY (31) VT (3)
  AL (9) SC (8) NC (15) FL (27) WV (5) ME (4) - DE (3) MA (12)
  MT (3) KY (8) MO (11) NJ (15) - MI (17) - MD (10) DC (3)
  WY (3) KS (6) VA (13) - - PA (21) - WA (11) RI (4)
  UT (5) MS (6) OH (20) - - - - CT (7) HI (4)
  ID (4) SD (3) IN (11) - - - - - -
  AK (3) - AZ (10) - - - - - -
  NE (5) - - - - - - - -
Designation
Total:
35 40 95 47 12 47 55 59 26
Candidate
Total:
175 106 143
Undesignated electoral votes: 114


Next installment: Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Arizona; US: Connecticut; US: Indiana; US: New Jersey; US: South Dakota
KEYWORDS: dales; ecb; electionpresident; electoralcollege; gwb2004
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To: Texas_Dawg
Thank you very much for going through and telling me the states that I had yet to get to.

I don't quite understand why people are disagreeing with the NJ analysis. What I said was that the poll numbers are very surprising to me, and I will be very surprised if the next time I get a poll I don't end up moving NJ over to the Kerry camp.

I guess people either don't remember how I did this last time, or weren't around for it. While my gut plays into things to a small degree (such as putting NJ in the "Slight" column instead of the "Lean" as would be indicated by just the polls), the overwhelming factor in the placement of any state in my analysis is where the state is according to its polls.

21 posted on 02/22/2004 2:56:33 PM PST by Dales
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To: Dales
I live in NJ and most NJ'ians, even the ones who claim to be or lean Republican, don't like GW much. I think it's going to come down to whether or not Rove can make them dislike Kerry more, that's the only way the Republican base (as it exists in NJ) will even come out to vote.
22 posted on 02/22/2004 2:57:41 PM PST by AM2000
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To: nbenyo
I doubt Bush wins NJ. However if you look it isnt that Bush is doing so well in NJ, it is that the DEM is doing so badly. Thus I think it is caused by McGreevey's unpopularity. thus as the election approaches, the DEM will improve in their poll standings, I think
23 posted on 02/22/2004 2:57:41 PM PST by raloxk
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To: Wheee The People
There are things yet to come.

After I go through each of the 50 states, then I am going to do a more detailed look at each of the states that will make up the battleground according to my perceptions. I was already planning on providing additional information in them.

And then after that is done, all there will be for quite a number of months will be updates as new polls come out. Then around summertime, I plug things into my "toy" which tries to make a guess as to how things will turn out based on the way things stand and the way things have been going.

And then the updates will continue right up until the end.

24 posted on 02/22/2004 2:59:48 PM PST by Dales
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To: Dales
Ping!!

;-)
25 posted on 02/22/2004 3:01:04 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: All
To those questioning NJ, I would argue that the "Slight" columns are so uncertain at this point it's really not worth the effort. What is of more interest is determining the "base" of each candidate and then figuring out which of the slight and tossup states need to fall to Bush in order to win.

The next step should be an analysis that would include a listing of issues critical to those slight/tossup states and discussion regarding whether the administration is likely to deliver on said issues.

26 posted on 02/22/2004 3:02:44 PM PST by NittanyLion
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To: Dales
I can't see Jersey even being close, although I'll respect the gutsy call.

The main reason is the leftist shift there, as well as all the infighting in the state party there. After the Lostenberg/Torturecelli fiasco, there's slim to none chance IMO. In fact, I think Connecticutt, and even New Yawk will be closer than Jersey(60% dem wouldn't suprise me here.) If Jersey is in play, than this will be Dukakis II.

Agree on the rest, but Arizona scares me quite a bit with all the immigration and senior migration out there.

27 posted on 02/22/2004 3:13:56 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)
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To: Dan from Michigan
ARIZONA

County - Gore Votes - Bush Votes - Nader - LP/RP/CP - Total - Gore% Bush% Nader % Right % Apache (St Johns) 13025 5947 245 201 19418 67% 31% 1% 1%
Santa Cruz (Nogales) 5233 3344 217 85 8879 59% 38% 2% 1% Pima (Tuscon) 147688 124579 12355 2777 287399 51% 43% 4% 1%
Coconino (Flagstaff) 20280 17562 2478 496 40816 50% 43% 6% 1%
Pinal (Florence) 19650 20122 904 578 41254 48% 49% 2% 1%
Navajo (Holbrook) 11794 12386 517 422 25119 47% 49% 2% 2%
Gila (Globe) 7700 9158 497 356 17711 43% 52% 3% 2%
Maricopa (Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale) 386683 479967 22465 10141 899256 43% 53% 2% 1%
Yuma (Yuma) 12055 15708 495 373 28631 42% 55% 2% 1%
Greenlee (Clifton) 1216 1619 68 57 2960 41% 55% 2% 2%
Cochise (Tombstone) 13360 18180 1113 514 33167 40% 55% 3% 2%
Mohave (Kingman) 17470 24386 1323 913 44092 40% 55% 3% 2%
La Paz (Parker) 1769 2543 91 77 4480 39% 57% 2% 2%
Yavupai (Prescott) 24063 40144 2733 1010 67950 35% 59% 4% 1%
Graham (Thatcher) 3385 6007 144 151 9687 35% 62% 1% 2%

28 posted on 02/22/2004 3:19:36 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)
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To: Azzurri; Dales
I agree with Azzurri. The national GOP ought to write this state off completely, especially when you consider the kind of dopey, half-@sses Republicans who are successful in winning state-wide races here.
29 posted on 02/22/2004 3:39:48 PM PST by Alberta's Child (Alberta -- the TRUE North strong and free.)
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To: Dales
I don't quite understand why people are disagreeing with the NJ analysis.

I know... I just think it has to do with the fact that NJ is pretty liberal and the last poll was over a month ago and was against an unnamed Democrat. Against Kerry now, it is probably a Dem lean, imho.

30 posted on 02/22/2004 3:50:58 PM PST by Texas_Dawg (A vote for the Constitution Party is a vote for Paul Krugman and Al Qaeda.)
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To: Vigilanteman
NJ is not an easy state for Republicans. This is a very pro-gun control and abortion rights state. The independents - the key to win the elections in NJ - are fiscally conservative, afraid of guns and pro abortion rights. Hard to see Bush get over 45-47% in NJ (if Bush can win 46-47% in NJ, he will definitely win in PA).

Some issues that may tip the NJ balance a bit towards Bush this fall -

1) Drug reimportation - all the hoopla on cheap Canadian drugs - NJ is the state with the largest employment in Pharma countrywide - all the R&D centers and corporate HQs of Merck, J&J, Pfizer, Hoffman, Bristol-Myers, Novartis blah blah - there are thousands of jobs could be threatened here if the dims push too hard on the drug issue,

2) Smoot-Hawley type of protectionism policy - NJ is a state with major seaports, most moderates see trade is a plus not a negative, then there is the wallstreet crowd, a smoot-hawley type of protectionist will crater the stock market, so goes the budding financial centers along the shore of the Hudson, and

3) NJ govn. is very unpopular, think the last poll he has is the mid 30s in approval, this could dim the hopes of the dems a bit.

I can see Bush get into the mid/upper 40s if the stars are aligned well (sorta like the votes Forrester, Franks got in the 02,04 senate races). If Bush can pull in the mid upper 40s in NJ, he could make the dems real nervous and need to spend some $$ in NJ. Advertising in NJ is very expensive.
31 posted on 02/22/2004 3:56:24 PM PST by FRgal4u
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To: Dales
You have not yet discussed those five states - Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.

The last five states would then be: New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin.

Keep 'em coming!
32 posted on 02/22/2004 3:59:04 PM PST by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero, something's gonna happen..)
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To: AntiGuv
Texas should be a no brainer, but with the offshoring hitting here so bad, we'll see. Bush better throw out something to combat it, or else he's in for a fight.
33 posted on 02/22/2004 4:01:22 PM PST by Monty22
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To: Texas_Dawg
Like I said, I will be surprised if Bush is holding his lead by the next NJ poll.

But until I see it, I go with what I have.

34 posted on 02/22/2004 4:20:13 PM PST by Dales
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To: FRgal4u
Indeed in the 1980's, Pennsylvania leaned Dem and Jersey leaned Rep. Reagan and Bush Sr. barely won Pennsylvania all three times. In those days people like Mondale appealed to Southwestern PA Democrats.

However now the two states have flipped. New Jersey has grown more like New York.
35 posted on 02/22/2004 4:21:30 PM PST by republicanwizard
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To: Dales
Glad you're back doing these state-by-state poll analyses. I'd appreciate being on your ping list. Thanks.
36 posted on 02/22/2004 4:34:40 PM PST by Quicksilver ([Liberals] aren't liberal at all when it comes to freedom; they want control over everything. --Rush)
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To: Quicksilver
you are on the list!
37 posted on 02/22/2004 4:36:59 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: Dales
AS an ex-patriot Jerseyan, I'll have to throw my vote with those who say it's a likely Kerry state, sorry to say. When I was growing up there, a lot of the electorate was like my parents, white, middle class, first and second-generation immigrants who believed in working hard in the hopes of building a better life for your kids. Relatively few fresh immigrants (although my schools always had a sizable Puerto Rican population, and fairly small influx from NY.

Demographics have changed. Quite a few New Yorkers have moved in, plus a huge influx of immigrants. The downstate Republican votes cannot offset the Rat advantage in North Jersey and Trenton/Camden. Scratch NJ as a Bush pickup.

38 posted on 02/22/2004 4:43:27 PM PST by chimera
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To: Dales
Unlike some of the other FReepers on this thread, I think NJ may be close. It comes down to 9/11 and remembering. Those in New Jersey can't forget. Every time they look at NYC, there are two large buildings missing.
39 posted on 02/22/2004 4:46:20 PM PST by WinOne4TheGipper (I make no guarantee that the above post was written by by a sane person.)
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To: WinOne4TheGipper
Unlike some of the other FReepers on this thread, I think NJ may be close. It comes down to 9/11 and remembering. Those in New Jersey can't forget. Every time they look at NYC, there are two large buildings missing.

I know what you mean. I live in suburban Philadelphia and travel the Jersey turnpike past NYC on the way to New England often. Pre 9/11, the first thing you saw south of the Newark airport were those 2 towers sticking up and nothing else. It is so strange for them to be gone now.

Never forget!

MoodyBlu

40 posted on 02/22/2004 5:45:42 PM PST by MoodyBlu
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