Posted on 02/22/2004 2:32:30 PM PST by Dales
Edited on 02/22/2004 3:06:00 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this eighth installment, the random state generator presented me with Indiana, Arizona, South Dakota, New Jersey, and Connecticut.
Indiana |
---|
Electoral Votes: 11 |
2000 Result |
Bush 57% |
Gore 41% |
Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/15/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 525 RV | 4.2% | Bush | 51% | 45% |
Punditry: The SurveyUSA poll is surprisingly close to me. Given the Republican leaning of this state, I expect it to open up to be more along what happened in 2000, although Evan Bayh being Kerry's VP choice would complicate matters. Leans for Bush.
Arizona |
---|
Electoral Votes: 10 |
2000 Result |
Bush 51% |
Gore 45% |
Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7/18/03 | Behavior Research Center | Link | 701 Adults | 4.3% | Bush | 55% | Unnamed Opponent | 41% |
1/11/04 | Behavior Research Center | Link | 641 Adults | 3.9% | Bush | 50% | Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean) | 38% |
2/19/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | RV | 4.3% | Bush | 52% | Kerry | 44% |
Punditry: The polls match the results from last time. Leans for Bush.
South Dakota |
---|
Electoral Votes: 3 |
2000 Result |
Bush 60% |
Gore 38% |
Background: Another state that only went for the Democrats with Johnson since FDR's second campaign. It has occasionally been close.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/5/03 | Mason-Dixon | NA | LV | 3.5% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 39% |
Punditry: I do not anticipate any surprises in South Dakota. Strong Advantage for Bush.
New Jersey |
---|
Electoral Votes: 15 |
2000 Result |
Gore 56% |
Bush 40% |
Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/8/03 | Rutgers | Link | 802 Adults | 3.5% | Bush | 43% | Unnamed Democrat | 35% |
9/15/03 | Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind | Link | 600 RV | 4% | Bush | 36% | Unnamed Democrat | 29% |
1/11/04 | Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind | Link | 600 RV | 4% | Bush | 40% | Unnamed Democrat | 32% |
Punditry: If I had to guess, the next New Jersey poll will show Kerry ahead of Bush. However, it has been very interesting how well Bush's numbers have fared here in the Garden State. While my gut tells me that this is going to change, the numbers indicate that it should as of now be in the Leans for Bush category. I want to see one more poll before I can do that though, given the Clinton/Gore margins. Slight Advantage for Bush.
Connecticut |
---|
Electoral Votes: 7 |
2000 Result |
Gore 56% |
Bush 38% |
Background: 3-5-3 in the last 11, with Clinton's first being probably due to the Perot factor.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3/11/03 | Quinnipiac | Link | RV | 3% | Bush | 37% | Unnamed Democrat | 51% |
7/31/03 | Quinnipiac | Link | RV | 3% | Bush | 37% | Unnamed Democrat | 51% |
Punditry: Compare how in the tri-state area, Bush's support has collapsed in Connecticut but remained high in New Jersey. I am not sure what to make of this, but it is very interesting. Strong Advantage for Democrats.
Summary Table | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bush | Democrat | ||||||||
Safe | Strong | Lean | Slight | Tossup | Slight | Lean | Strong | Safe | |
ND (3) | CO (9) | GA (15) | NV (5) | OR (7) | NM (5) | CA (55) | NY (31) | VT (3) | |
AL (9) | SC (8) | NC (15) | FL (27) | WV (5) | ME (4) | - | DE (3) | MA (12) | |
MT (3) | KY (8) | MO (11) | NJ (15) | - | MI (17) | - | MD (10) | DC (3) | |
WY (3) | KS (6) | VA (13) | - | - | PA (21) | - | WA (11) | RI (4) | |
UT (5) | MS (6) | OH (20) | - | - | - | - | CT (7) | HI (4) | |
ID (4) | SD (3) | IN (11) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
AK (3) | - | AZ (10) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
NE (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Designation Total: |
35 | 40 | 95 | 47 | 12 | 47 | 55 | 59 | 26 |
Candidate Total: |
175 | 106 | 143 | ||||||
Undesignated electoral votes: 114 |
Next installment: Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
I don't quite understand why people are disagreeing with the NJ analysis. What I said was that the poll numbers are very surprising to me, and I will be very surprised if the next time I get a poll I don't end up moving NJ over to the Kerry camp.
I guess people either don't remember how I did this last time, or weren't around for it. While my gut plays into things to a small degree (such as putting NJ in the "Slight" column instead of the "Lean" as would be indicated by just the polls), the overwhelming factor in the placement of any state in my analysis is where the state is according to its polls.
After I go through each of the 50 states, then I am going to do a more detailed look at each of the states that will make up the battleground according to my perceptions. I was already planning on providing additional information in them.
And then after that is done, all there will be for quite a number of months will be updates as new polls come out. Then around summertime, I plug things into my "toy" which tries to make a guess as to how things will turn out based on the way things stand and the way things have been going.
And then the updates will continue right up until the end.
The next step should be an analysis that would include a listing of issues critical to those slight/tossup states and discussion regarding whether the administration is likely to deliver on said issues.
The main reason is the leftist shift there, as well as all the infighting in the state party there. After the Lostenberg/Torturecelli fiasco, there's slim to none chance IMO. In fact, I think Connecticutt, and even New Yawk will be closer than Jersey(60% dem wouldn't suprise me here.) If Jersey is in play, than this will be Dukakis II.
Agree on the rest, but Arizona scares me quite a bit with all the immigration and senior migration out there.
County - Gore Votes - Bush Votes - Nader - LP/RP/CP - Total - Gore% Bush% Nader % Right % Apache (St Johns) 13025 5947 245 201 19418 67% 31% 1% 1%
Santa Cruz (Nogales) 5233 3344 217 85 8879 59% 38% 2% 1% Pima (Tuscon) 147688 124579 12355 2777 287399 51% 43% 4% 1%
Coconino (Flagstaff) 20280 17562 2478 496 40816 50% 43% 6% 1%
Pinal (Florence) 19650 20122 904 578 41254 48% 49% 2% 1%
Navajo (Holbrook) 11794 12386 517 422 25119 47% 49% 2% 2%
Gila (Globe) 7700 9158 497 356 17711 43% 52% 3% 2%
Maricopa (Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale) 386683 479967 22465 10141 899256 43% 53% 2% 1%
Yuma (Yuma) 12055 15708 495 373 28631 42% 55% 2% 1%
Greenlee (Clifton) 1216 1619 68 57 2960 41% 55% 2% 2%
Cochise (Tombstone) 13360 18180 1113 514 33167 40% 55% 3% 2%
Mohave (Kingman) 17470 24386 1323 913 44092 40% 55% 3% 2%
La Paz (Parker) 1769 2543 91 77 4480 39% 57% 2% 2%
Yavupai (Prescott) 24063 40144 2733 1010 67950 35% 59% 4% 1%
Graham (Thatcher) 3385 6007 144 151 9687 35% 62% 1% 2%
I know... I just think it has to do with the fact that NJ is pretty liberal and the last poll was over a month ago and was against an unnamed Democrat. Against Kerry now, it is probably a Dem lean, imho.
But until I see it, I go with what I have.
Demographics have changed. Quite a few New Yorkers have moved in, plus a huge influx of immigrants. The downstate Republican votes cannot offset the Rat advantage in North Jersey and Trenton/Camden. Scratch NJ as a Bush pickup.
I know what you mean. I live in suburban Philadelphia and travel the Jersey turnpike past NYC on the way to New England often. Pre 9/11, the first thing you saw south of the Newark airport were those 2 towers sticking up and nothing else. It is so strange for them to be gone now.
Never forget!
MoodyBlu
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