Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Eight

Various

[Dales]

Thank you very much for going through and telling me the states that I had yet to get to.

I don't quite understand why people are disagreeing with the NJ analysis. What I said was that the poll numbers are very surprising to me, and I will be very surprised if the next time I get a poll I don't end up moving NJ over to the Kerry camp.

I guess people either don't remember how I did this last time, or weren't around for it. While my gut plays into things to a small degree (such as putting NJ in the "Slight" column instead of the "Lean" as would be indicated by just the polls), the overwhelming factor in the placement of any state in my analysis is where the state is according to its polls.

[AM2000]

I live in NJ and most NJ'ians, even the ones who claim to be or lean Republican, don't like GW much. I think it's going to come down to whether or not Rove can make them dislike Kerry more, that's the only way the Republican base (as it exists in NJ) will even come out to vote.

[raloxk]

I doubt Bush wins NJ. However if you look it isnt that Bush is doing so well in NJ, it is that the DEM is doing so badly. Thus I think it is caused by McGreevey's unpopularity. thus as the election approaches, the DEM will improve in their poll standings, I think

[Dales]

There are things yet to come.

After I go through each of the 50 states, then I am going to do a more detailed look at each of the states that will make up the battleground according to my perceptions. I was already planning on providing additional information in them.

And then after that is done, all there will be for quite a number of months will be updates as new polls come out. Then around summertime, I plug things into my "toy" which tries to make a guess as to how things will turn out based on the way things stand and the way things have been going.

And then the updates will continue right up until the end.

[Neets]

Ping!!

;-)

[NittanyLion]

To those questioning NJ, I would argue that the "Slight" columns are so uncertain at this point it's really not worth the effort. What is of more interest is determining the "base" of each candidate and then figuring out which of the slight and tossup states need to fall to Bush in order to win.

The next step should be an analysis that would include a listing of issues critical to those slight/tossup states and discussion regarding whether the administration is likely to deliver on said issues.

[Dan from Michigan]

I can't see Jersey even being close, although I'll respect the gutsy call.

The main reason is the leftist shift there, as well as all the infighting in the state party there. After the Lostenberg/Torturecelli fiasco, there's slim to none chance IMO. In fact, I think Connecticutt, and even New Yawk will be closer than Jersey(60% dem wouldn't suprise me here.) If Jersey is in play, than this will be Dukakis II.

Agree on the rest, but Arizona scares me quite a bit with all the immigration and senior migration out there.

[Dan from Michigan]

ARIZONA

County - Gore Votes - Bush Votes - Nader - LP/RP/CP - Total - Gore% Bush% Nader % Right % Apache (St Johns) 13025 5947 245 201 19418 67% 31% 1% 1%
Santa Cruz (Nogales) 5233 3344 217 85 8879 59% 38% 2% 1% Pima (Tuscon) 147688 124579 12355 2777 287399 51% 43% 4% 1%
Coconino (Flagstaff) 20280 17562 2478 496 40816 50% 43% 6% 1%
Pinal (Florence) 19650 20122 904 578 41254 48% 49% 2% 1%
Navajo (Holbrook) 11794 12386 517 422 25119 47% 49% 2% 2%
Gila (Globe) 7700 9158 497 356 17711 43% 52% 3% 2%
Maricopa (Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale) 386683 479967 22465 10141 899256 43% 53% 2% 1%
Yuma (Yuma) 12055 15708 495 373 28631 42% 55% 2% 1%
Greenlee (Clifton) 1216 1619 68 57 2960 41% 55% 2% 2%
Cochise (Tombstone) 13360 18180 1113 514 33167 40% 55% 3% 2%
Mohave (Kingman) 17470 24386 1323 913 44092 40% 55% 3% 2%
La Paz (Parker) 1769 2543 91 77 4480 39% 57% 2% 2%
Yavupai (Prescott) 24063 40144 2733 1010 67950 35% 59% 4% 1%
Graham (Thatcher) 3385 6007 144 151 9687 35% 62% 1% 2%

[Alberta's Child]

I agree with Azzurri. The national GOP ought to write this state off completely, especially when you consider the kind of dopey, half-@sses Republicans who are successful in winning state-wide races here.

[Texas_Dawg]

I don't quite understand why people are disagreeing with the NJ analysis.

I know... I just think it has to do with the fact that NJ is pretty liberal and the last poll was over a month ago and was against an unnamed Democrat. Against Kerry now, it is probably a Dem lean, imho.

[FRgal4u]

NJ is not an easy state for Republicans. This is a very pro-gun control and abortion rights state. The independents - the key to win the elections in NJ - are fiscally conservative, afraid of guns and pro abortion rights. Hard to see Bush get over 45-47% in NJ (if Bush can win 46-47% in NJ, he will definitely win in PA).

Some issues that may tip the NJ balance a bit towards Bush this fall -

1) Drug reimportation - all the hoopla on cheap Canadian drugs - NJ is the state with the largest employment in Pharma countrywide - all the R&D centers and corporate HQs of Merck, J&J, Pfizer, Hoffman, Bristol-Myers, Novartis blah blah - there are thousands of jobs could be threatened here if the dims push too hard on the drug issue,

2) Smoot-Hawley type of protectionism policy - NJ is a state with major seaports, most moderates see trade is a plus not a negative, then there is the wallstreet crowd, a smoot-hawley type of protectionist will crater the stock market, so goes the budding financial centers along the shore of the Hudson, and

3) NJ govn. is very unpopular, think the last poll he has is the mid 30s in approval, this could dim the hopes of the dems a bit.

I can see Bush get into the mid/upper 40s if the stars are aligned well (sorta like the votes Forrester, Franks got in the 02,04 senate races). If Bush can pull in the mid upper 40s in NJ, he could make the dems real nervous and need to spend some $$ in NJ. Advertising in NJ is very expensive.

[AntiGuv]

You have not yet discussed those five states - Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.

The last five states would then be: New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin.

Keep 'em coming!

[Monty22]

Texas should be a no brainer, but with the offshoring hitting here so bad, we'll see. Bush better throw out something to combat it, or else he's in for a fight.

[Dales]

Like I said, I will be surprised if Bush is holding his lead by the next NJ poll.

But until I see it, I go with what I have.

[republicanwizard]

Indeed in the 1980's, Pennsylvania leaned Dem and Jersey leaned Rep. Reagan and Bush Sr. barely won Pennsylvania all three times. In those days people like Mondale appealed to Southwestern PA Democrats.

However now the two states have flipped. New Jersey has grown more like New York.

[Quicksilver]

Glad you're back doing these state-by-state poll analyses. I'd appreciate being on your ping list. Thanks.

[Neets]

you are on the list!

[chimera]

AS an ex-patriot Jerseyan, I'll have to throw my vote with those who say it's a likely Kerry state, sorry to say. When I was growing up there, a lot of the electorate was like my parents, white, middle class, first and second-generation immigrants who believed in working hard in the hopes of building a better life for your kids. Relatively few fresh immigrants (although my schools always had a sizable Puerto Rican population, and fairly small influx from NY.

Demographics have changed. Quite a few New Yorkers have moved in, plus a huge influx of immigrants. The downstate Republican votes cannot offset the Rat advantage in North Jersey and Trenton/Camden. Scratch NJ as a Bush pickup.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Unlike some of the other FReepers on this thread, I think NJ may be close. It comes down to 9/11 and remembering. Those in New Jersey can't forget. Every time they look at NYC, there are two large buildings missing.

[MoodyBlu]

Unlike some of the other FReepers on this thread, I think NJ may be close. It comes down to 9/11 and remembering. Those in New Jersey can't forget. Every time they look at NYC, there are two large buildings missing.

I know what you mean. I live in suburban Philadelphia and travel the Jersey turnpike past NYC on the way to New England often. Pre 9/11, the first thing you saw south of the Newark airport were those 2 towers sticking up and nothing else. It is so strange for them to be gone now.

Never forget!

MoodyBlu