Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Six

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this sixth installment, the random state generator presented me with Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Mississippi.

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Kansas

Electoral Votes: 6

2000 Result

Bush 58%

Gore 37%

Background: Kansas has been a clean sweep for the GOP since Johnson beat Goldwater.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
2/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	500 RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%

Punditry: Currently an 8 point lead for Bush at a time where Kerry is riding high in the polls in a state that always goes Republican and last time was well into the double digits? Sounds like a Strong Advantage for Bush.

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Ohio

Electoral Votes: 20

2000 Result

Bush 50%

Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%

Punditry: Many Democrat second guessers think that Gore would be President today had he concentrated on Ohio rather than Florida. Given how the rest of the rust belt voted, this is a tempting analysis. However, the history of Ohio's Presidential votes shows that it was an understandable decision to go elsewhere, as Republicans have dominated the Buckeye state. While Bush only won by five points last time, the polls to date show that he has solidified his standing here. I cannot be as bullish as the polls would indicate, but I still have Ohio as Leaning for Bush.

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Pennsylvania

Electoral Votes: 21

2000 Result

Gore 51%

Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%

Punditry: Bush lost Pennsylvania by five points, and he currently trails in the polls here by five points. Earlier polls showed him doing better than that, and Pennsylvania is a state which has been winnable by either party for quite some time (as shown by it having two Republican senators while having gone Democrat the last three elections). This is going to be a battleground state, and right now it rates a Slight Advantage for the Democrats.

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Maryland

Electoral Votes: 10

2000 Result

Gore 57%

Bush 40%

Background: Since the 1960 election, the only Republicans to carry Maryland were Nixon for his re-elect, Reagan for his re-elect, and George H. W. Bush during his first campaign. Clinton did not need Perot to win here either time. This is a Democrat state.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
1/12/04	Potomac, Inc	Link	1,200 LV	2.8%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	51%

Punditry: There will be many interesting states this election. Maryland is not one of them. This state has a Strong Advantage for the Democrats.

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Mississippi

Electoral Votes: 6

2000 Result

Bush 58%

Gore 41%

Background: Mississippi is a southern state first, second, and last. JFK finished behind Henry Byrd here. George Wallace won the state by more than a 2-1 margin over the second place finisher. The only Democrat to win since 1956? Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford-- and Carter came very close to beating Reagan here. But as the Democrats have moved left, Mississippi has been willing to cast votes for Yankee Republicans, as Clinton lost both times here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
12/22/03	Associated Press	Link	RV	4%	Bush	49%	Unnamed Democrat	29%

Punditry: The same comment I made for Maryland applies here, only for the other side. Strong Advantage for Bush.

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Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	CO (9)	GA (15)	NV (5)	-	NM (5)	CA (55)	NY (31)	VT (3)
	AL (9)	SC (8)	NC (15)	FL (27)	-	ME (4)	-	DE (3)	MA (12)
	MT (3)	KY (8)	MO (11)	-	-	MI (17)	-	MD (10)	DC (3)
	WY (3)	KS (6)	VA (13)	-	-	PA (21)	-	-	RI (4)
	UT (5)	MS (6)	OH (20)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	ID (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	AK (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Designation Total:	30	37	74	32	-	47	55	41	22
Candidate Total:	146			79			121
Undesignated electoral votes: 192

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Next installment: Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, North Dakota, and West Virginia.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five

[Kuksool]

Installment Six

[Lyford]

Great stuff bump...

[Galtoid]

Dales, I don't know who you are or what you do for a living, but your posts are excellent, intelligent, and quite informative. Keep up the good work!

[Molly Pitcher]

Thanks for these sanity-savers, Dales. I just know we're going to need them by the end of October, if not long before.

And thanks to Nita for doing the pings.

[Swanks]

Useful stuff to Karl Rove. As a man who's job is equal to a husband figuring exactly how much he can cheat on his wife without her leaving him, he can use the data to figure his cheating habits state by state.

[Dales]

Neets mailed me the ping list on Friday. I just forgot!

[Clintonfatigued]

Your analysis is teriffic, I wish I had thought of this. Some notes: Carter made a strong (though losing) showing in Kansas in 1976, even though Bob Dole was the Vice Presidential candidate. Maryland's support for President Bush in 1988 was a fluke. Willie Horton (remember him?) committed his crimes on furlough in Maryland. In Mississippi, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1996 came close to winning, mainly by making inroads in the state capitol of Jackson.

Important history in Ohio: No Republican has been elected Presdient without winning Ohio.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Subscribe me to the bump list, please.

[Miss Marple]

Interesting comment about Maryland. It would behoove the GOP to find something that would ignite voters to go GOP.

[Dan from Michigan]

Ohio is about 2-3% to the right of Michigan because of Detroit/Flint/Saginaw having more people than Cleveland/Toledo/Dayton/Youngstown.

Otherwise, I'd say there is a LOT of similarities between them.

[dakine]

Maryland will not vote for Bush in '04...this state is as far left as Mass., excluding the extreme rural West end...

[Miss Marple]

True, unless there is alocal issue that draws voters away from the GOP.

A slim hope, but one which has a bit of possiblity.

[Miss Marple]

I meant rawing voters TO the GOP. Sorry.

[JohnnyZ]

About Ohio, the job situation there is worrisome. In most states, unemployment peaked around July 2003 and has been declining since. However, in Ohio, the last data point in not good:

June 6.3%
July 6.3%
August 5.8%
September 5.8%
October 5.6%
November 5.7%
December 6.0%

[LS]

I live in Dayton. I think the December number, as it was throughout most of the U.S., was high due to weather. For ex, my bro-in-law filed his first unemployment claim in late Jan due to the weather, but it has broken, and he (and many others) are back at work.

[onyx]

Excellent work, Dale.

Hey Neets, he even pinged the list!

[ryanjb2]

I live in Pennsylvania, Erie county to be exact. This place is heavily Democrat, despite the people being fairly socially Conservative. The unemployement is high and the downtown in filled with abandoned factories. Until that changes they will keep electing Dems.

However, like much of PA, once you get away from the big citie it is just like the South.

[JLS]

Can I get added to a ping list for these?

[chimera]

I'd have to put Ohio in the tossup category for now. It's just based on some on-the-ground observations. The job loss issue is in the forefront and trumps all others. Bush needs to show some leadership on that issue and tell people like John Snow and Elaine Chao and most of all Gregory Mankiw to STFU already!

Demographic shifts have also been noticeable. Quite a few immigrants in areas that are normally "safe" for Republicans. My county (Franklin) went "blue" the last time and this has in the past been a conservative area.

Anecdotal data: quite a few "Kerry for President" bumper stickers have been cropping up, nothing yet for Bush. Just anecdotal, but it shows the Rats are getting organized and energized quite early in the run. Bush and the Republicans shouldn't let them get too far ahead, because catch-up is often a difficult task.