Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Six
Various

Posted on 02/22/2004 10:35:52 AM PST by Dales

Edited on 02/22/2004 12:46:17 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this sixth installment, the random state generator presented me with Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Mississippi.


Kansas
Electoral Votes: 6
2000 Result
Bush 58%
Gore 37%

Background: Kansas has been a clean sweep for the GOP since Johnson beat Goldwater.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
2/9/04 SurveyUSA Link 500 RV 4.3% Bush 52% Kerry 44%

Punditry: Currently an 8 point lead for Bush at a time where Kerry is riding high in the polls in a state that always goes Republican and last time was well into the double digits? Sounds like a Strong Advantage for Bush.


Ohio
Electoral Votes: 20
2000 Result
Bush 50%
Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
2/7/03 Ohio Poll Link RV 4% Bush 59% Unnamed Democrat 36%
9/19/03 Ohio Poll Link RV 4% Bush 57% Kerry 38%

Punditry: Many Democrat second guessers think that Gore would be President today had he concentrated on Ohio rather than Florida. Given how the rest of the rust belt voted, this is a tempting analysis. However, the history of Ohio's Presidential votes shows that it was an understandable decision to go elsewhere, as Republicans have dominated the Buckeye state. While Bush only won by five points last time, the polls to date show that he has solidified his standing here. I cannot be as bullish as the polls would indicate, but I still have Ohio as Leaning for Bush.


Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
5/13/03 Quinnipiac Link 952 RV 3.2% Bush 56% Kerry 34%
10/9/03 Quinnipiac Link 1,116 RV 3% Bush 50% Kerry 43%
11/23/03 Muhlenberg College Link 430 RV 4.7% Bush 47% Kerry 40%
12/14/03 Quinnipiac Link 1,092 RV 3% Bush 50% Kerry 42%
2/18/04 Quinnipiac Ling 1,356 RV 2.7% Bush 45% Kerry 50%

Punditry: Bush lost Pennsylvania by five points, and he currently trails in the polls here by five points. Earlier polls showed him doing better than that, and Pennsylvania is a state which has been winnable by either party for quite some time (as shown by it having two Republican senators while having gone Democrat the last three elections). This is going to be a battleground state, and right now it rates a Slight Advantage for the Democrats.


Maryland
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 57%
Bush 40%

Background: Since the 1960 election, the only Republicans to carry Maryland were Nixon for his re-elect, Reagan for his re-elect, and George H. W. Bush during his first campaign. Clinton did not need Perot to win here either time. This is a Democrat state.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
1/12/04 Potomac, Inc Link 1,200 LV 2.8% Bush 41% Unnamed Democrat 51%

Punditry: There will be many interesting states this election. Maryland is not one of them. This state has a Strong Advantage for the Democrats.


Mississippi
Electoral Votes: 6
2000 Result
Bush 58%
Gore 41%

Background: Mississippi is a southern state first, second, and last. JFK finished behind Henry Byrd here. George Wallace won the state by more than a 2-1 margin over the second place finisher. The only Democrat to win since 1956? Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford-- and Carter came very close to beating Reagan here. But as the Democrats have moved left, Mississippi has been willing to cast votes for Yankee Republicans, as Clinton lost both times here.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
12/22/03 Associated Press Link RV 4% Bush 49% Unnamed Democrat 29%

Punditry: The same comment I made for Maryland applies here, only for the other side. Strong Advantage for Bush.


Summary Table
  Bush Democrat
  Safe Strong Lean Slight Tossup Slight Lean Strong Safe
  ND (3) CO (9) GA (15) NV (5) - NM (5) CA (55) NY (31) VT (3)
  AL (9) SC (8) NC (15) FL (27) - ME (4) - DE (3) MA (12)
  MT (3) KY (8) MO (11) - - MI (17) - MD (10) DC (3)
  WY (3) KS (6) VA (13) - - PA (21) - - RI (4)
  UT (5) MS (6) OH (20) - - - - - -
  ID (4) - - - - - - - -
  AK (3) - - - - - - - -
Designation
Total:
30 37 74 32 - 47 55 41 22
Candidate
Total:
146 79 121
Undesignated electoral votes: 192


Next installment: Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, North Dakota, and West Virginia.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Kansas; US: Maryland; US: Mississippi; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2004; dales; ecb; electionpresident; electoralcollege; gwb2004
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-27 last
To: Dales
I agree with your ratings for the other states, but must disagree with your assessment of PA as "slightly leans Dem." PA is a pure toss-up right now, and I think will more likely than not end up in Bush's column. The Pittsburgh suburbs are much more Republican nowadays than in the past, turning Western PA from a heavily RAT area to a swing area. And I think the Philly suburbs will swing back to the GOP because of national security issues (see my comments re: Delaware in your 4th installment).
21 posted on 02/23/2004 1:08:05 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Swanks
Are you implying that Karl Rove is any way connected with cheating/fixing elections?
22 posted on 02/23/2004 1:18:56 PM PST by BlueNgold (Feed the Tree .....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: BlueNgold
No I imply Rove could care less about the conservative base only to the point of getting them to vote Republican every four years. The admin outspends Clintoon, supports open borders and welfare to anyone who can make it across, lays down on fed. judgeships, etc.

Someone here on FR used the cheating husband analogy which bares repeating. That Rove will cheat on his base but only enough not to force them to leave.

23 posted on 02/23/2004 1:31:42 PM PST by Swanks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Swanks
Thanks for taking the time to explain.
You had me worried...
24 posted on 02/23/2004 2:01:09 PM PST by BlueNgold (Feed the Tree .....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: BlueNgold
Let me rephrase it better: Karl Rove has the morals of a cheating husband; who calculates exactly how much wife-cheating he can get away with; without her leaving him for good.

Giving money to the RNC is like sending Rove out on a night on the town to do what I described above.

25 posted on 02/23/2004 2:15:46 PM PST by Swanks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Swanks
I think I see your frustration, but not sure I agree.
I want a win in Nov. This counry cannot currently afford a lib in the CinC chair.
26 posted on 02/23/2004 2:19:43 PM PST by BlueNgold (Feed the Tree .....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: BlueNgold
True but we will never get representation because we trained them to do this every cycle. If the cycle is broken once it'll get their attention. Rove brings you to the dance, disappears for four hours, then reappears because he needs the ride home. Time for a few successes with 3rd and 4th party candidates (both sides) to create a breech in this two party cartel.

Others, save me the standard answer: But a 3rd party vote is a throw away vote, stay with Bush this one time and we'll fix it next time (and next time, and next time...)

27 posted on 02/23/2004 2:32:56 PM PST by Swanks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-27 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson