Electoral College Breakdown, Installment One

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For the first installment, the random state generator presented me with North Dakota, Maine, Alabama, New Mexico, and Vermont.

North Dakota

Electoral Votes: 3

2000 Result

Bush 61%

Gore 33%

Background: North Dakota is always a problematic state for my poll tracking, in that it is so rarely, if ever, polled. There are good reasons for this. It is a very small state, with only three electoral votes. It also is rarely competitive. The last time the Democrats won in North Dakota was when Lyndon Johnson trounced Barry Goldwater in 1964. Since then, Republican candidates have carried North Dakota by margins from a low of 7 points (Bob Dole against Bill Clinton) to a high of 38 points (Reagan against Carter). Obviously, George W. Bush had little problem with Al Gore last election cycle.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: There is zero chance that North Dakota will be a factor in this election. If the election is close nationwide, North Dakota will not be, and if North Dakota is then the nationwide election won't be. Safe Bush

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Maine

Electoral Votes: 4

2000 Result

Gore 49%

Bush 44%

Background: Despite having only a single more electoral vote than tiny North Dakota, Maine gets a bit more attention due to its proximity to the media hotbeds in New England. However, it is rarely listed as a swing state for the coming election, which is a mistake. Bush lost to Gore by only 5 points last time, and over the past 10 elections it has split evenly between the parties. The best way to describe Maine is streaky, as those elections have been Democrats for two straight, Republicans for five straight, and now Democrats for the last three. Perhaps it is because Nader picked up 5% that people assume that Maine will be less competitive this time.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
3/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	36%
9/12-26/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	45%

Punditry: Maine has been tracking the nationwide polls regarding Bush for quite some time now, generally with him lagging by a point or two here. If the election is close nationwide, expect this state to stay close, particularly if Kerry is the nominee. Despite being a New England state, Maine tends to vote for Democrats who are centrist and reject those who are perceived to be liberal. Slight Advantage Democrat.

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Alabama

Electoral Votes: 9

2000 Result

Bush 56%

Gore 42%

Background: Alabama has been a reliable GOP state, only straying twice since 1960; both times it went for a southerner. Jimmy Carter carried the state, as did George Wallace.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
4/27/03	USA Polling Group	Link	RV	5%	Bush	60%	Unnamed Democrat	30

Punditry: This is another state, like North Dakota, which falls into the category of "if this one is close, the election is not". Bush will carry Alabama comfortably. Safe Bush.

---

New Mexico

Electoral Votes: 5

2000 Result

Gore 48%

Bush 48%

Background: No state, not even Florida, was closer in the last election than New Mexico. Prior to Clinton breaking through, the Republicans had carried the state for 6 consecutive elections, often by significant margins. Both times that Clinton carried New Mexico, the Perot vote played a significant factor. The strong showing Perot made here suggests that this is a state concerned with Mexico, both from an immigration perspective and from a jobs perspective.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
9/12/03	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque	Link	400 RV	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	43%

Punditry: Simply on the basis of the close election results in 2000, New Mexico is going to be a state to keep an eye on, and the poll from last September indicates that it will still be a battle. I sense, however, that this state will be less friendly to the President this time around due to NAFTA, his immigration proposal, and the popularity of Democrat governor Bill Richardson. Slight Advantage Democrat.

---

Vermont

Electoral Votes: 3

2000 Result

Gore 51%

Bush 41%

Background: Vermont went for Lyndon Johnson, then not for another Democrat until Bill Clinton. It has gone Democrat the last three elections (by 16, 22, and 10 points). Third party candidates are a factor in Vermont, even if they do not generally swing the state.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
10/02	Research 2000	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	38%	Dean	50%
10/28/03	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Dean	34%

Punditry: Vermont has changed dramatically since the days when Ronald Reagan had been carrying the state. The Republican voters there are loyal, but they are simply outnumbered. Safe Democrat.

---

Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	-	-	-	-	NM (5)	-	-	VT (3)
	AL (9)	-	-	-	-	ME (4)	-	-	-
Designation Total:	12	-	-	-	-	9	-	-	3
Candidate Total:	12				-	12
Undesignated electoral votes: 514

Next installment: Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Montana, Massachusetts

Historical election data and graphics are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

[Krodg]

Add me. Please.

[beaureguard]

Put me on ping list also!

Thanks

[So Cal Rocket]

Maine assigns their 4 electoral votes by giving 2 to the winner of the statewide popular vote, 1 to the winner of the vote in Congressional District 1, and 1 to the winner of Congressional District 2. IIRC, Bush was VERY close to Gore in District 2 in 2000.

It is a distinct possibility that Maine's electoral votes will be split this time: 3 to the Dems, 1 to Bush.

[chimera]

Thanks for the hard work. Very informative.

[KC_Conspirator]

I remember your work from 2000. You ought to consider selling your services, they are pretty darned good.

[CIApilot]

Please add me to the ping list.

[headsonpikes]

This is great stuff, Dales!

Put me on the ping list please, Neets.

[Tall_Texan]

Please add me to the Dales ping list.

Does anyone have a chart that shows migration of electoral votes from 2000 to 2004? That would be helpful in tracking the EV contest since the last one was so close and I'm not expecting too many states to change.

[Wolfstar]

Dales, thank you VERY much for your superb work in helping to teach and inform us about polls, election trends, and related material. I look forward to your continued reports throughout this election season.

[scan58]

I would like to be on the ping list, too. Thanks.

[DallasMike]

Funny, I was thinking of you just this morning. Would you like me to make graphs for you like the last election? I have better tools than I did 4 years ago and we can do some neater things, like linking to webpages stored on my ISP's server. We can also do some data mining and analysis that we weren't able to do back in 2000.

[JohnnyZ]

It is a distinct possibility that Maine's electoral votes will be split this time: 3 to the Dems, 1 to Bush.

Or vice versa.

[nevergiveup]

Welcome back Dales, your work is much appreciated.

Neets, please add me to the ping list.

[Dales]

If you would like. I am actually in the middle of some development work on my own which should allow a lot more of the in-depth toying with data that we all enjoy so much. So in other words, I am pretty tied up with my own efforts, but anything you want to do that will bring more insight to folks I am all for!

[Freedom of Speech Wins]

Suggestion here: Make the Republicans Red and the Democrats Blue. That is what the news services have been doing. It also is what was done in the last presidential election on a map that people stared at for long periods of time.

[scan58]

I was just going to reply that I was glad to see the Republicans *back* to the blue that I remember them being for so many years. RED is definitely more fitting of the dems.
My thoughts are the media stole blue from us in 2000.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Please add me to your ping list. Thank you.

[GiveEmDubya]

I may (MAY) be going to college in Maine, so hopefully the GOP organizations up there aren't so anemic that they aren't willing to do some grassroots campaigning. Even if we push the 2nd district over the top, that's 1 electoral vote. Every little bit helps.

[Galatians513]

ping me, please!

[AuH2ORepublican]

I think it's too early to say Maine and New Mexico lean slightly to the Democrat candidate. I would put them both as toss-ups, although if I was forced to choose which way they leaned, I would say NM is a slight lean for Bush and Maine a slight lean to Kerry. At the end of the day, I don't think Kerry (who supported NAFTA, BTW) will be able to carry NM unless he picks Richardson as his running mate (and Richardson publicly has said no on several occasions), since Bush will increase his share of the Hispanic vote there and since this time there shouldn't be a snowstorm in the southern (and Republican) part of the state.