Kerry, Edwards Lead Bush by Double Digits Among Likely Voters

Gallup News Service ^ | February 19, 2004 | David W. Moore

[RWR8189]

Support stimulated by especially high interest among Democrats

PRINCETON, NJ -- In a hypothetical presidential contest, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads President George W. Bush by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 55% to 43%, while North Carolina Sen. John Edwards leads Bush by 10 points, 54% to 44%. According to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, these figures represent a significant improvement in the Democratic candidates' strength from 10 days ago, when Bush had a one-point lead over Kerry and a four-point lead over Edwards. At the end of January, Kerry enjoyed a seven-point lead and Edwards a one-point lead.

	Kerry	Bush
Likely Voters	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17	55	43
2004 Feb 6-8	48	49
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	53	46
	Edwards	Bush
Likely Voters	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17	54	44
2004 Feb 6-8	46	50
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	49	48

The current poll, conducted Feb. 16-17, finds a much smaller change among registered than among likely voters. Kerry's current lead among registered voters is five percentage points, 51% to 46%, up from one point 10 days ago, but identical to the lead measured at the end of last month. A CBS News poll conducted Feb.12-15 also found a five-point lead among registered voters, 48% for Kerry to 43% for Bush. An ABC News/Washington Post poll of registered voters conducted Feb. 10-11 found Kerry leading Bush by nine points, 52% to 43%. These results suggest little change in registered voters' preferences between Kerry and Bush over the past several weeks.

Similarly, Edwards and Bush are essentially tied in the current poll among registered voters, as they were in a late January poll. Ten days ago, Bush enjoyed a six-point lead over Edwards among registered voters.

	Kerry	Bush
Registered Voters	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17	51	46
2004 Feb 6-8	49	48
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	51	46
	Edwards	Bush
Registered Voters	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17	49	48
2004 Feb 6-8	45	51
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	48	48

The larger fluctuation Gallup found among likely voters probably reflects the ebb and flow of news stories about the Democratic primaries, which in turn can affect the relative number of Democrats or Republicans in the "likely voter" pool at any given point in time. During a period of intense coverage of Democratic primaries and caucuses, as occurred during the New Hampshire primary and more recently in anticipation of the Wisconsin primary, Democrats become especially interested in following the campaign -- a measure that boosts their chances of being included in the Gallup "likely voter" model.

This is an unusual situation. Republicans are disproportionately likely to be likely voters in most situations, which has historically given them an advantage on Election Day. It will be important to see if the Democrats maintain their current level of intense interest in the campaign, and thus a higher probability of voting, after the primary season is over and a nominee has been firmly determined.

Over the same period of time -- between the New Hampshire and Wisconsin primaries -- Bush's job approval rating has remained essentially stable, ranging between 49% and 52%. Thus, the changes in the horse-race figures would appear to reflect more the changing likelihood of Democrats turning out to vote than a fundamental change in the public's perceptions of Bush.

Kerry Holds Overwhelming Lead Among Democrats

The poll confirms the front-runner status of Kerry over all of his Democratic opponents, as he receives support from 65% of registered Democrats nationally (including those who lean to the Democratic Party). Edwards receives just 19% support and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean 8%.

Democratic Challenger Trial Heat
Among Registered Democrats

The current poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday, and was thus completed for the most part before results of the Wisconsin primary were known. It is possible that Edwards' unexpectedly strong second-place finish in Wisconsin may change the dynamics of the race, but he obviously has a long way to go to overcome Kerry's lead nationally. Even among Democratic voters living in the nine Super Tuesday states holding primaries on March 2, the poll shows Kerry leading with an average of 63% support, followed by Edwards (9%), Dean (7%), civil rights activist Al Sharpton (4%), and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%).

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 16-17, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 568 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 898 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 426 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

	Kerry	Bush	NEITHER (vol.)	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Likely Voters
2004 Feb 16-17	55	43	1	*	1
2004 Feb 6-8	48	49	1	*	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	53	46	*	--	1
2004 Jan 9-11	43	55	1	*	1
Registered Voters
2004 Feb 16-17	51	46	2	*	1
2004 Feb 6-8	49	48	1	*	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	51	46	1	--	2
2004 Jan 9-11	40	57	2	--	1
2003 Nov 10-12	46	52	1	--	1
2003 Sep 19-21	48	47	2	1	2
National Adults
2004 Feb 16-17	51	44	3	*	2
2004 Feb 6-8	48	48	2	*	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	52	44	2	--	2
2004 Jan 9-11	40	57	2	--	1
2003 Nov 10-12	44	53	1	--	2
2003 Sep 19-21	47	48	2	1	2
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response

3. If North Carolina Senator John Edwards were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Edwards, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

3A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Edwards, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

	Edwards	Bush	NEITHER (vol.)	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Likely Voters
2004 Feb 16-17	54	44	1	*	1
2004 Feb 6-8	46	50	2	--	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	49	48	2	--	1
Registered Voters
2004 Feb 16-17	49	48	1	*	2
2004 Feb 6-8	45	51	1	--	3
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	48	48	2	--	2
National Adults
2004 Feb 16-17	49	48	1	*	2
2004 Feb 6-8	45	50	2	--	3
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	49	47	2	--	2
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response

5. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED:Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich]

BASED ON 426 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE

		Kerry	Ed- wards	Dean	Kuc- inich	Sharp- ton	Clark	Lieb- erman	Gep- hardt	Braun	Gra- ham	None/ other/ no opin.
		%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17		65	19	8	2	*	--	--	--	--	--	6
2004 Feb 6-8		52	13	14	1	4	10	--	--	--	--	6
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1		49	13	14	2	3	9	5	--	--	--	5
2004 Jan 9-11		9	7	26	1	3	20	9	7	4	--	14
2004 Jan 2-5		11	6	24	2	2	20	10	9	3	--	15
2003 Dec 15-16		7	6	27	2	6	12	12	7	3	--	18
2003 Dec 11-14		10	4	31	1	5	10	13	8	3	--	15
2003 Dec 5-7		7	7	25	2	3	17	10	14	5	--	10
2003 Nov 14-16		9	6	17	3	5	17	13	13	4	--	13
2003 Nov 10-12		10	7	17	3	3	14	15	12	4	--	15
2003 Oct 24-26		10	6	16	1	6	15	12	12	4	--	18
2003 Oct 10-12		11	6	13	3	6	18	13	10	5	--	15
2003 Oct 6-8 ^		13	2	16	2	6	21	13	8	4	--	15
2003 Sep 19-21		11	4	13	2	4	22	10	11	3	4	16
2003 Sep 8-10		12	5	14	2	2	10	13	16	4	5	17
2003 Aug 25-26		10	5	12	1	4	2	23	13	5	4	21
2003 Aug 4-6		12	5	15	2	4	--	18	15	5	5	19
2003 Jul 25-27		15	6	11	2	5	--	21	16	6	4	14
2003 Jun 12-18		13	6	7	1	6	--	21	17	5	7	17
2003 May 31-Jun 1		17	6	5	2	7	--	20	14	4	4	21
2003 Apr 22-23		18	8	6	3	3	--	22	16	4	5	15
	NOTE: Wesley Clark dropped out of the race on Feb. 11, Joe Lieberman dropped out of the race on Feb. 3, Dick Gephardt dropped out of the race on Jan. 20, and Carol Moseley Braun dropped out of the race on Jan. 15.
^	NOTE: Bob Graham dropped out of race on Oct. 6, his name was removed from question for Oct. 7-8 interviewing and in subsequent polls; "Graham" responses from Oct. 6 included in "other" category.
* Less than 0.5%

[MagnusMaximus1]

Sounds good to me, however, unrealistic in the short-run. ;-)

[Swordmaker]

Actually....no.. When doing a poll of this sort, a likely voter is a registered voter who is called and self-identifies his or herself as likely to vote.

They ask: "Did you vote in the last election?" "Do you intend to vote in the next General Election?" This is one of the ways they determine who is a "likely voter." A respondent just self-identifying as a "likely voter" is too easy to give false positives.

[chimera]

IMHO, in those more industrial "swing states" like yours, the swing voters will either give the issue of JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, the highest prority OR it will come down to the social issues of GOD, GAYS, GUNS and ABORTION, especially given the large number of gun owning, Catholic, union members in your state and certain others!

No question that the GGGA issues will be important with some segments of the population. Jobs and the economy will likely have a broader appeal. Bush and the Republicans need to find a way to blunt the Rat attacks on this front. In places like Kucinich country and a few others, the salient issue will be, as always, "free money from da gummint", and there isn't much we can do in terms of rational debate to reach people who hold that as their central value.

I was having a discussion the other day with some women from my parish about the abortion thing. There seems to be a continuing disconnect between practicing Catholics who claim to adhere to the teachings of the church, and their support of political leaders who push a pro-abortion agenda. Both of these ladies are smart and highly educated (one is a Ph.D. in theology from Loyola). We were talking about the political issue of abortion and I mentioned that the Rat candidates all support unlimited abortion on demand, while Republicans generally take a pro-life position. The one lady then stated something like, "Well, yes, but that really isn't too important for a President, because it's the Supreme Court that interprets the law in those cases." Then I pointed out, "Yes, and who gets to decide who sits on the Supreme Court?" She thought a minute, and then said, "Well, I think the Senate votes on nominees made by...", and then, with seemingly dawning astonishment, said, "...the President...". It was like, bingo, the light came on.

I really find it amazing that I have to teach supposedly educated people things that I can remember learning in high school government classes.

[Constitution Day]

Indexing to Edwards Watch...

[Tailback]

I thought that after the 2000 census that red states gained electoral votes while the blues lost? That would mean that if Bush just carried the same states as in 2000 his electoral margin of victory would be even larger. Florida won't be as close and a couple other states like Oregon or New Mexico that were close in 2000 might swing to Bush.