Kerry, Edwards Lead Bush by Double Digits Among Likely Voters

Gallup News Service ^ | February 19, 2004 | David W. Moore

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[KQQL]

Kerry 55% - W 43%
W Approval @ 51%
USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup
MOE-/+3% (Likely voters) 02/16-17/04
---------------------

Kerry 46% - W 45%
W Approval @ ??%
University of Connecticut Poll
MOE-/+2.9% (Reg voters) 02/12-16/04
----------------------

Kerry 48% - W 43%
W Approval @ 50%
CBS Poll
MOE-/+3% (Reg Voters) 02/12-15/04
---------------------------

Kerry 52% - W 43%
W Approval @ 50%
ABC/WP Poll MOE-/+3% (Reg Voters) 02/10-11/04
------------------

W 50% - Kerry 48%
W Approval @ 54%
CNN/TIME Poll MOE-/+4.1% (Reg Voters) 02/05-06/04
-----------------

W 47% - kerry 43%
W Approval @ 53%
Fox News Poll MOE-/+3% (Reg Voters) 02/04-05/04

[Timesink]

Eek. I'm sooooo worried. Not.

[hobson]

This has been posted at least 3 times.

[GeronL]

what a joke. last week they were 'tied' and now Bush would lose by double digits.

WHAT a joke

[Eva]

Yes, this has been posted several times today, as well as the Rasmussen poll which has Bush leading Kerry.

[KQQL]

not from gallup's site/nor with the details

[RWR8189]

This is the release from Gallup that breaks down the data more clearly, and I think it provides better analysis.

[KQQL]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1080698/posts

[TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig]

Monkey's are flying out of my ass right now and typing epic poems without even using spell check.

No. Really.

[KQQL]

Bush Leads in Red States, Kerry Ahead in Blue States
Voters Hardened on the Economy, War, Gays Marriage

http://www.zogby.com/news/021804.html

[KQQL]

Election 2004



Kerry 44% Edwards 25% It's now one-on-one.

Bush 48% Kerry 43%

Congress: Dem 41% GOP 40%

Bush Job Approval: 54%

National Political Tracking Data Updated Daily by Noon Eastern
http://rasmussenreports.com/

[LdSentinal]

2004 Feb 6-8 (REGISTERED VOTERS)

John Kerry: 49%
George W. Bush: 48%

2004 Feb.6-8 (LIKELY VOTERS)

George W. Bush: 49%
John Kerry: 48%

The difference between registered and likely voters in this poll is a +2 increase for Bush.

2004 Feb 16-17 (REGISTERED VOTERS)

John Kerry: 51%
George W. Bush: 46%

2004 Feb 16-17 (LIKELY VOTERS)

John Kerry: 55%
George W. Bush: 43%

The difference between registered and likely voters in this poll is a +7 increase for Kerry.

Why the differences?

[Swordmaker]

Let's see... what determines a voter to be a member of the set of "likely voters?" They voted in the LAST ELECTION. And exactly what was the last election? Why the Democrat Primaries, of course!

[KellyAdmirer]

I don't think I've ever before seen such a useless and non-predictive group of polls like the ones in this thread.

[joyce11111]

And the Zogby poll is opposite!!!!

[Kirkwood]

Here's a reason I don't believe in these polls. They never report the number of people who hang up the phone. This is NOT the same as the number of no opinions / non-responders. Now, there is no way to know if the person that hangs up on the pollster will or will not vote, or how they will vote if they are voters. These hang-ups have to be a rather large number. I always hang up as soon as I learn it is a poll and I suspect conservative voters tend to hang up a LOT more than liberals. Liberals will tend to respond to the pollster because they want Bush out and want to push that poll number up. Conservatives have better things to do than answer questions and tend to not watch polls.

[Heatseeker]

I don't think I've ever before seen such a useless and non-predictive group of polls like the ones in this thread.

I agree, with the exception of the favor ability rating for President Bush. All of them have him at 50% or better in the polls KQQL reported. This after a not-very good 6 weeks, coinciding with an "all Dems, all the time" anti-Bush attack-fest.

But what speaks louder to me than any of these polls are the Wisconsin exit polling. With the Badger State allowing independents and Republicans to vote, and those groups making up about 40% of the vote, Kerry won but just barely.