{Democrat} Chandler Leads {Republican} Kerr in {KY}Sixth District Race Poll

Lexington, KY, Herald-Leader ^ | 02-12-04 | AP

[Theodore R.]

Chandler leads Kerr in Sixth District race poll

Associated Press

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Democrat Ben Chandler leads Republican Alice Forgy Kerr in their race to represent the 6th Congressional District, according to a newspaper poll.

In the Bluegrass Poll, published Thursday by The Courier-Journal, 49.4 percent said they supported Chandler compared with 39.6 percent for Kerr and 11 percent undecided.

The poll, which surveyed 466 self-described likely voters, has an error margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Thus, Chandler holds a slight lead when accounting for the error margin.

The vacancy was created in December when Republican Ernie Fletcher took office as Kentucky governor. The race has drawn state and national interest, partly because of Chandler's loss to Fletcher in the governor's race and because it is the first Democrat-Republican race of national impact in 2004.

The telephone survey was taken last Thursday through Monday.

The figures for Chandler and Kerr included voters who initially said they were undecided but were leaning toward a candidate. Without the leaners, the difference between Chandler and Kerr was within the error margin.

Kerr is in her sixth year as a state senator.

Kerr's campaign manager, Billy Piper, said the poll confirms the tightness of the contest. "We have always known that this will be an exceptionally close race, but the only poll that counts will be taken on Feb. 17. Between now and then, Sen. Kerr will do everything she can to take her positive message directly to central Kentucky's voters."

Chandler said the poll "is a reflection of my record of independence and always trying to do the right thing for Kentucky. ... I plan to campaign very aggressively in the final days, and I hope everyone votes on Feb. 17, regardless of the candidate they support."

The Bluegrass Poll also questioned 6th District voters about the race as part of its statewide survey Jan. 30 through Feb. 4. When those responses were added to the Feb. 5-9 polling, the numbers were about the same as the more recent results.

Information from: The Courier-Journal

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[DM1]

Great just bloody wonderful
with this loss and potential South Dakota Loss will we still be able maintain the majority in the house? Typically only about 12 house seats flip in any given year unless there is a tide of malcontent.

[JohnnyZ]

Bush doesn't care if we loose the house, IMHO. At least he doesn't act like it.

I still haven't heard you justify this claim. One more time?

[DM1]

Oh i dont know i think that he cares but with pol numbers the way they are now i am not sure if his intervention would be helpful or harmful in some races.
Delay did a good job at helping to give Texas some more GOP seats so i THINK that we will retain the house but one never knows

[JohnnyZ]

Because he could just as easily visit this seat and hand victory to Kerr.

She was given the choice of having a visit or not, and decided it would be prohibitively expensive.

[TheEaglehasLanded]

When's the election?

[TheEaglehasLanded]

I see Next Tuesday

[epow]

What part of KY is district 6? If it includes Loiusville I am surprised that any Republican even has a chance. When I lived in the Louisville area many years ago it was solid Democratic territory.

[Theodore R.]

District 6 includes Lexington and the Bluegrass Country. i think it also includes Frankfort.

[Theodore R.]

The Ky special election is Tuesday, when Howard Dean makes his final losing performance in liberal WI as well.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"District 6 includes Lexington and the Bluegrass Country. i think it also includes Frankfort."

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Yes, Frankfort is in the district.

[AuH2ORepublican]

The article said that if one takes out leaners, Chandler's lead is within the margin of error. More importantly, it is probably several percentage points below 49%, so he hasn't won this one yet.

Do we know if Fletcher has been campaigning for Kerr?

[JohnnyZ]

I dunno about her in-person campaigning.

There are ten days from the midpoint of this poll to election day. It seems pretty clear that the voters had not yet gained enough comfort with AFK at the time of the poll. It's a race against time . . . and turnout.

[Republican Wildcat]

No, it doesn't include Louisville. Louisville has been represented by Republican Anne Northup, who is currently in her 4th term.

Lexington is the most populous area in the 6th (Lexington is only 1/3 the size of Louisville, so the 6th contains a number of other counties than just Fayette)

[Republican Wildcat]

Without the leaners, the difference between Chandler and Kerr was within the error margin.

Oh please don't give us the actual numbers, AP. It might hide the fact you are trying to push some sort of an agenda.

[Republican Wildcat]

Chandler said the poll "is a reflection of my record of independence and always trying to do the right thing for Kentucky.

Gag.