Latest PresidentElect 2004 Electoral Vote Analysis-- Bush 286, Kerry 252

PresidentElect.org ^ | 2/10/04 | WoodlandsTXFreeper

[WoodlandsTXFreeper]

Article can be found at http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html

President Elect 2004 Electoral College Analysis (2/10/2004)

President Elect's fifth analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George W. Bush against the probable Democratic nominee, John Kerry, shows that if the election were today Bush would be the first popular vote losing president to win a second term. President Elect predicts that President Bush would win 286 electoral votes and Kerry would win 252 (Down from 307-231 in September).

For several months of there has been continuous coverage of the Democratic caucuses and primaries, with little coverage of Republican re-election efforts. As expected, the Democratic nominee's poll numbers have started to reflect the bounce historically received by the party getting the lion's share of the coverage when the incumbent does not have to campaign to win his party's nomination.

However, Kerry's support is strengthening because rank and file Democrats have been yearning to get behind a single person who would lead the charge against Bush. The SOLID KERRY states are solidifying behind him, while the LEANING BUSH and LEANING KERRY states are moving more in that direction.

In our last analysis, one of Bush's problems was that his LEANING states weren't traditionally Republican friendly. With Massachusetts Senator Kerry as the probable Democratic nominee that problem may even out. He may lose LEANING states north of the Mason-Dixon Line but those south of it will start leaning back Bush's way.

This analysis is just a starting point, since it is the first to seriously consider Kerry as the nominee. Now that President Elect 2004 is in full swing, we will update this analysis every other month until summer when updates will come more often.

BTW - for those curious: This analysis was delayed in the hopes that a Democratic frontrunner would emerge so we wouldn't have to guess or do another generic assessment. However, just to be ready, preliminary analyses were done of several other candidates. For curiosity's sake, here are how those prelim numbers were looking.

BUSH: ~273 EDWARDS: ~265

BUSH:~302 DEAN~236

BUSH:~320 CLARK:~218

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Interesting that NM is listed as solid Bush. Gore barely won there in 2000. This map looks about right, maybe with the exception of NH in the NE.

Is NM the only state that Bush failed to carry in 2000 that is in his column right now?

[NeoCaveman]

Interesting that NM is listed as solid Bush. Gore barely won there in 2000. This map looks about right, maybe with the exception of NH in the NE.

2000 map

Iowa was Gore's (leaning Bush) and New Hampshire was Bush's (leaning Kerry).

MN, WI, and OR? were the very close ones that went Gore's way

[DestroytheDemocrats]

"Kerry will NEVER have a chance to win this electon. The Clintons will not allow it. A Kerry win will end Hillary's quest for a return to the White House."

Not if she is his running mate. I bet anything she will be. Then what? It will be even more of an uphill battle.

[Keith]

Each state has the right to apportion it's electoral votes as it chooses...Maine and Nebraska have system somewhat like what you are talking about...

BTW, should Shrillary run, what is the New York law...does she have to resign her seat? IF so, no way she runs...too risky...

[Keith]

Also, remember, if each side won the same states as last time, he wins by 7 more votes because of reapportionment.

And there is NO WAY he loses Florida this time...hope he gets Koch to campaign for him in the Condos in the south...

[WoodlandsTXFreeper]

If the TV networks hadn't given (GIVEN!) Florida to Gore in 2000, Bush would have won Florida pulling away. I really don't think it will be that close in Florida this time around.

[raloxk]

the election will be decided by probably 5 states:

PA, FL, OH, MI, MO (thats probably it)

[raloxk]

i agree

[mystery-ak]

I heard a report tonight on Fox that the DNC would like to see all of the drop out so they can concentrate on Kerry's election...

[Exit148]

"Kerry will NEVER have a chance to win this electon. The Clintons will not allow it. A Kerry win will end Hillary's quest for a return to the White House." ~~~~~~~~~~" Not if she is his running mate. I bet anything she will be. Then what? It will be even more of an uphill battle."

Would she wait another 8 years? If I were Kerry, I'd be looking over my shoulder. (but the thought of going after her, in a campaign, is delicious. Two birds with one stone.)

[Republican Wildcat]

New Mexico "solid" for Bush?

[nutmeg]

ping!

Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent ‘miscellaneous’ ping list.

[Howlin]

FYI.

[JayNorth]

once Kerry gets under the microscope, he's goping to look pretty bad

I believe you are correct. It isn't wishful thinking, Kerry just has incredible negatives when you take a real look. I hope the Republican leadership is keeping their powder dry.

[Sabertooth]

President Elect predicts that President Bush would win 286 electoral votes
and Kerry would win 252 (Down from 307-231 in September).

Well, this calls for overconfidence.

Onward, Freepers! Fly Harpies! House-trolls belch forth!

We shall show them such a purge!

We shall ban them to LP, repel them to DU, stifle all logic, bait every malcontent, and antagonize any unappeasable constituency that is insufficiently "like-minded."

We don't need no stinking coalition.

Where the heck else are those poor sods gonna go?

[Travis McGee]

Too many unknown variables to make any meaningful predictions at this point.

[Mo1]

Huh???

[My2Cents]

Where the heck else are those poor sods gonna go?

They can all go to hell, as far as I'm concerned. If Bush has to cow-tow to the Disgruntled Caucus to win, we might as well let the whole nation go to hell.

[Sir Gawain]

If Bush has to cow-tow to the Disgruntled Caucus to win, we might as well let the whole nation go to hell.

But you're quite happy that he "cow-tows" to liberals in order to win, huh? That doesn't bother you one bit.

[Ramtek57]