Bush Gains, Horse Race a Dead Heat (Kerry down by 7 points since last week - Gallup)

GALLUP ^ | 02-10-04 | David W. Moore

[veronica]

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds a hypothetical presidential contest between President George W. Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry a dead heat. Bush receives 49% support among likely voters and Kerry 48%. Last week, Kerry led Bush by 7 points, 53% to 46%, but a month ago -- before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary -- Bush led Kerry by 12 points, 55% to 43%.

Bush also does slightly better this week than last against the other three major Democratic candidates.

While Bush trailed North Carolina Sen. John Edwards by one point last week, the president leads by four points now. Bush leads retired Gen. Wesley Clark by five points now, compared with three points last week. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean trails Bush by 10 points in the current poll, compared with 7 points last week. Changes since last week in the relative electoral strength of Bush vs. each of the candidates, Edwards, Clark, and Dean, are all within the poll's margin of error. Still, Bush's improvement against each of the candidates is consistent with the significant improvement in Bush's standing against Kerry.

The poll results show that the political landscape has changed dramatically since the beginning of January, when Bush enjoyed double-digit leads over the Democratic candidates. Still, it is not as positive for Democrats as it was last week, when Kerry led Bush by seven points. The change from last week could be related to a decline in the positive publicity Kerry received in the wake of his dramatic victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Whether the political landscape continues to move back in Bush's favor or stabilizes at a more competitive level remains to be seen.

Bush Approval Up to 52%

Bush's job approval is now at 52%, compared with 49% a week ago, and 59% a month ago.

GRAPHS, MORE, HERE

[dano1]

Another excellent commercial might be to point how how Kerry is "two faced", showing both his pre and post-botox images along with the completely different policy stands he has taken on issues.

Kerry's quick fall in the polls may be due to the obvious transparent dupicity of his recent statements. For example, making an issue of whether President Bush fullfilled his required days of miltary service. W enlisted to become a fighter pilot at the height of the war, and the jerk calls him a "deserter", and without any evidence to boot! Kerry takes completely opposite positions on WMD and other issues. That kind of childishness nonsense and self-serving hindsight reflects much more negatively on the Kerry himself than on the President Bush. as far as the voters are concerned.

[reformedliberal]

Just a hand check. They haven't even started, yet.

[Quilla]

Fred on Everything! Great reading, I'll put him on my list of regulars.

[cake_crumb]

"Kerry's already wearing a bit thin, while Bush is just gearing up. :)"

Oh no, no, we can't have that.

Kerry is obviously not getting his message out strongly enough. He should tout his military experience more and stop being so modest! He should continue saying that the National Guard is not real military! He should continue telling us how the president is a DISMAL failure because his tax cuts only benefit the richest 1%! How he'll raise taxes to reduce the deficit! C'mon, John, people just aren't hearing you!

[cake_crumb]

"Joe Wilson – member of the National Security Council under Clinton"

...And author of Wilson/Plame microminigate.

Whadda coinkydink.

[FlipWilson]

I meant ten. . the remaining five will be for punishment. Rope a dope is a strategy whereby you let your opponent punch himself out and then. . . boom!!!

[GiveEmDubya]

""but this picture, taken Feb. 7 looks NOTHING like pictures of Kerry the previous week.""

I also noticed when his lines started coming back. Honestly, it did look like he got un-Botoxed (if at all possible) about a week after everyone started speculating about it.

[KantianBurke]

Alabama - R
Alaska - R
Arizona - R
Arkansas - R
California - D
Colorado - R
Connecticut - D
Delaware - D
District of Columbia - D
Florida - R
Georgia - R
Hawaii - D
Idaho - R
Illinois - D
Indiana - R
Iowa - D
Kansas - R
Kentucky - R
Louisiana - R
Maine - D
Maryland - D
Massachusetts - D
Michigan - D
Minnesota - D
Mississippi - R
Missouri - D
Montana - R
Nebraska - R
Nevada - R
New Hampshire - R
New Jersey - D
New Mexico - D
New York - D
North Carolina - R
North Dakota - R
Ohio - D
Oklahoma - R
Oregon - D
Pennsylvania - D
Rhode Island - D
South Carolina - R
South Dakota - R
Tennessee - R
Texas - R
Utah - R
Vermont - D
Virginia - R
Washington - D
West Virginia - R
Wisconsin - D
Wyoming - R

Electoral Totals: Rat gets 291, Bush gets 247. If Dubya signs the AWB and Kerry picks Gephardt (who brings in OH and MO) for VP, this result coming to pass becomes quite possible.

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

[lawnguy]

Here's the commercial:

Kerry Morphs into Lardass Kennedy, while a voice over explains every Kerry vote and position on military and cultural issues.

He will not carry a single southern state,(he'll hope for Florida) Where can he win in the west? Oregon? Washington? I'm conceding California, but I wouldn't be shocked if GWB sneaks in and steals California.

Kerry has no prayer IMHO. Is there any film footage of his baby killer testimony to congress?

Please let there be footage of this :)

[thesummerwind]

Rope a dope is a strategy whereby you let your opponent punch himself out

I hear you, but listen, darling.

I saw that Foreman/Ali fight when it happened.

Let me just suggest to you that Ali has physical problems today that I believe are not disconnected from that rope-a-dope strategy from that incredible fight. I hope you are understanding this.

There was damage done to Ali in that fight, and it breaks my heart to see him as he is today because of it.

Anyhow, Bush, IMO, has to STOP the rope-a-dope relatively soon, or he will be damaged, damaged to the point where he cannot respond.

We'll be alright, but rope-a dope can be a very bad thing for a very healthy fellow.

IT IS TIME TO GET OFF THE ROPES!

What do you think?

[thesummerwind]

Boom Boom.........-- yeh, that was gross.

I remember seeing a guy, known in boxing as Benny the "Kid" Paret, who died in New York City on April 3, 1962 as a result of injuries sustained in a fight with Emile Griffith. (Benny, after being hit a few times, got his arms all tied up in the ropes, and the Ref just let Griffith hit him in the head about 30 times in a row. It was sickening.) Benny slumped to the canvass, never to move again. Sickening!

I say, if things can't be settled in 10 or 12 rounds, then lets forget about it to start with, and just go have a few beers and not fight at all.

[ambrose]

Some horse race. The horses haven't left the stables yet.

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winnuh!

[FlipWilson]

Ali's problems were more from the Thrilla in Manilla than the Rumble in the Jungle, in my opinion. I think that as long as Bush can hold his own, i.e. stay at around 50% approval rating and tied with Kerry, he should continue to let Kerry play out his hand. By the time July rolls around, everyone is going to be tired of the "Vietnam Vet./Bush went AWOL" schtick.

Then is when Bush can start hacking. Now, if Bush starts to fall badly, then I agree it is time to come off of the ropes.

[thesummerwind]

YOU 'da MAN!!!!!!

Great summation!

[spacewarp]

I've heard that tripe for 3 1/2 years now. I'm just wondering if the Democraps really believe the lie that Bush was selected not elected. If so, there's a real quick way to get them to shut up when they drop that line. "Well, if he was selected, not elected, then, since the law says a man can only be elected twice, does that mean we can get 8 more years of Bush?" Never fails. They either shut up, or get furious and march off.

Paul

[spacewarp]

Greg Craig – former director of policy planning, State Department

Any relation to Jenny???

William Perry – secretary of defense under Clinton

Wasn't he the Refrigerator of Defense for the Chicago Bears??

[raloxk]

Why do people think Gephart can deliver MO when he never ran a statewide race?

Gepharts poor showing in Iowa should tell people he cant deliver the union vote in PA, MI, OH

[KantianBurke]

In a crowded Presidential primary yes. But as the VP touting job security for unions and other workers who are still hit hard, it might be just the note to turn the tide. Other posters have commented that MI goes rat if the AWB is signed in that state's case as well. Bush should be focusing on this.

[raloxk]

Gephart has never been tested statewide. His district in South St Louis is not like the rest of the state. He could deliver MO, bit I dont automatically give it to him just because he is from MO. I think it is a mistake ot do so.