Will Kentucky Special Bring an Early Jolt of Bad News for GOP?

rollcall.com ^ | February 9, 2004 | Stuart Rothenberg

[KQQL]

Unless voters in Kentucky’s 6th district suddenly have a change of heart, the Republicans are headed for a rocky Feb. 17 special election in the Lexington-area House district. Former two-term state Attorney General Ben Chandler (D), not state Rep. Alice Forgy Kerr (R), has the advantage in the final days before the election.

[KQQL]

DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR FORGY KERR !

WAS Chandler Name ID too big for Kerr, or is she running a a bad campaign or o KY Rats are feeling sorry for Chandler?

[KQQL]

KY REG numbers:

RATS: 1,571,541
GOP: 908,031
Others: 169,512

[GraniteStateConservative]

Will Kentucky Special Bring an Early Jolt of Bad News for GOP?

Ask Again Later
Better Not Tell You Now
Concentrate and Ask Again
Don't Count on It
It Is Certain
Most Likely
My Reply is No
My Sources Say No
No
Outlook Good
Outlook Not So Good
Reply Hazy, Try Again
Signs Point to Yes
Yes
Yes, Definitely
You May Rely On It

[KQQL]

here is the only Public (SurveyUSA) poll for this race so far:


U.S. House, KY 6th District
1/27/2004

Chandler (D)
54%

Kerr (R)
44%

Other/Undecided
2%

Data Collected
1/24/04 - 1/26/04

Geography
KY 6th Cong. District

Sample Population
572 Certain Voters

Margin of Error
4.2%

[TheBigB]

What does he mean by Chandler "having the advantage?" In money? Endorsements? Poll numbers? What?

[oceanview]

well for sure, Chandler has the advanatage of the media trying to shape their desired outcome through the "news" and the polls.

[KQQL]

Probably POLLS, and MEdia

[toddst]

DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR FORGY KERR !

Who are you trying to demoralize? I live in Lexington and I see it very different. Ms. Kerr is running a good campaign and taking the high road when possible.

Mr. Chandler chose not to even appear at a debate held by the farming community. He made no friends with that stunt. I look for Ms. Kerr to win this. All Chandler has is name recognition.

[JohnnyZ]

I think Alice Forgy Kerr is in good shape. I think it's a tossup, but I would bet on her winning.

[KQQL]

All Chandler has is name recognition

Well, from what I hear she's behind in the polls and name recognition at this point.(02/09/04). Week is a long time in politics and hopefully she can pull a win....

[KQQL]

I hope you are right!

[ambrose]

Bush isn't going to the district... but neither is any of the dwarves. I think this is a case of "all politics are local"/

Party in power also historically does poorly in off year elections- 2002 was the exception.

[KQQL]

so was 1998

[JohnnyZ]

I like Better Not Tell You Now

Republicans around the state and country are really rallying around Kerr. She's gotten lots of $ from congressional PACs and whatnot, and some Geoff Davis volunteers are down helping out AFK.

Turnout, turnout, turnout! She's in the game, it's all about who votes.

[Pubbie]

Hey! - Fergy is running a good campaign!

And even if she doesn't win, there is always the rematch in November.

Calm down chicken little...

:)

[KQQL]

I am calm, but if the RAT wins , we will hear blah blah blah from the rats and media from feb 17 till the SD race,,,,

[Keith]

WE are gonna hear blah blah blah no matter what...

just remember...6 weeks ago, Howard Dean was the Democratic Party's nominee...

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Sample Population
572 Certain Voters"

---

As I've stated before, that has got to be the phoniest poll I've ever seen. Only 2% undecided? And only "certain" (as in 100% sure they'll vote) voters included? What about all of those Bush and Fletcher voters who still hadn't heard of Kerr when the poll was taken over two weeks ago---were they not "certain" voters and thus kept off the sample? Let's wait until a more conventional poll comes out, or else wait until the vote. I'm with Johnny on this one---I think Kerr will pull this one out.

And as for losing the seat being an early jolt of bad news for the GOP, remember how the KY gubernatorial race last year was supposed to be a referendum on the Bush economy, how Chandler was poised to win and how it would be a harbinger for Bush's defeat in 2004? Well, the pollsters tried to keep it close, but it was clear to those of us who were paying attention that Fletcher was running away with it and he wound up winning huge. One more week of ads by Kerr about how she will work with President Bush on national security and how Chandler would be beholden to Nancy Pelosi in the House and we can put this one to bed.

[JohnnyZ]

There are results for certain and probable voters combined, too -- I think it was 50-46 Chandler. But it sounds like private polling since then may still be showing Chandler in the lead.

I assume SurveyUSA will be doing another poll in the coming days.