Twenty-one Reasons Why Bush Will Win

Just four days before the election, muckrakers uncovered a dirty little secret on their GOP rival. Twenty-four years earlier, George W. Bush was arrested for drunk driving. To make matters worse, he answered no when a reporter asked if he'd ever been arrested. It was the kind of bombshell that would have ruined his shot at the White House, except for the lead in the polls he had at the time. The effect of the report was evident later in exit polls. They indicated that a majority of people who made up their minds within three days of the election voted for Al Gore. Normally, undecideds break overwhelmingly to the candidate from the party out of the White House. In addition, an unknown number of voters who had been attracted to Bush's image of integrity were motivated to stay home. Without this perfectly-timed political hand grenade, Bush would have won the election with room to spare, and the blatant partisanship of the Supreme Court (of Florida, that is) would have remained local news. In all likelihood, Bush won't face a similar devastating revelation this year.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2000, Al Gore enjoyed a huge advantage going into the election season. He was the sitting vice president during a time when the country was enjoying an extended period of peace and prosperity. Even under those circumstances, the American people thought enough of George W. Bush to elect him anyway. All things being equal, Bush will benefit from being in the incumbent party this time around. (I can hear Democrats mumbling something about Gore's poor campaign strategy losing the election. Maybe that contributed, but, nevertheless, Bush did possess a certain degree of electability. Imagine John Kerry..er..or not.)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Special interests serving the Democratic party developed an intimidating get-out-the-vote machine during the 90's. That process culminated in an heroic effort in 2000. The result? Dubya took the best punch well-heeled civil rights activists and unions had to offer and still came out on top. Those Democratic special interests will be hard-pressed to match that performance and even less likely to exceed it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The United States of America was forever changed on that day in September when all of us were so violently ripped from of our mirage of security. Never again will peace be thought of as a given in American life. We are a nation at war. It is a war that will continue for a long time against a ruthless, unprincipled adversary bent on the merciless taking of civiflian life. They have stated their desire to kill us, each and every one, simply because we are Americans. In such times, we are instinctively drawn to leaders who show the determination to proactively confront and conquer the threats we face. Most of us understand that a co-existent relationship with these enemies cannot be negotiated; they must be subdued through absolute victory in the theater of war. Bush understands this, and Americans know it. I hesitate to bring politics into the War on Terror, but the facts are obvious. Our President and his party in general have shown themselves much more willing to implement the iron-fisted policies necessary to vanquish this insidious foe. Speaking loudly, while leaving the big stick in the closet, is not the trademark of this administration when it comes to terrorism. There can be no denying that George W. Bush is serious about actively protecting our people and our nation. The vast majority of voters, even those who may disagree with the path down which that action is taking us, take comfort, consiously or not, in the protection our military provides under the firm hand of our Commander-in-Chief. This sense of protection through vigilance will be a huge factor this November in polling booths across the country.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The recession of 2000 started very early in Bush's presidency. So early, in fact, that it is absurd to suggest Bush's policies had anything to do with it. The downturn was compounded by the disastrous economic effects of September 11. Bush understood that America needed to pour on the fuel to keep our economic engine from stalling. His tax cuts and immediate tax rebates provided a boost that helped avert a deeper, longer recession. The economy has since turned the corner and is picking up steam. If the current trends continue, and they should, by November the economic outlook held by the electorate should be much improved. And Bush will benefit considerably at the ballot box.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is an excellent point brought up by PoliPundit last November. Here's the meat of those thoughts (I paraphrase just a little): "The Democrats made a major blunder in the 2004 presidential race by choosing to hold their national convention on July 26 in Boston. The GOP will be holding its convention in the first week of September. I could go on endlessly about why this helps the GOP, but here are four concise reasons: 1. Bush will be able to continue spending his Primary money until September and use his general election money from September to November. The Democratic candidate, however, will be out of money by July, because of a tough Primary, and then have to make his general election funds last from July to November. This exaggerates Bush's already crushing money advantage. 2. 9/11 will be a few days after the GOP convention. 3. By holding the Democratic convention on July 26, the Democrats risk losing the post-convention bounce in the polls by election day. 4. The summer Olympics are between the two conventions and will suck the air out of the DNC message."

The two months between September's Republican National Convention and Election Day will be a great time to be Republican. I can't wait!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The weakness of this crop of Democratic contenders has been well documented. Suffice it to say that whoever emerges with the opporunity to face Bush will be no Al Gore, as if that were a boast.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With the rulings handed down by the Supreme Court of Massachusetts and a law in Ohio banning gay marriage, we are on a collision course with this issue that will force it into the political spotlight this year. The country is largely opposed to gay marriage, generally ambivalent toward civil unions, and mostly against a Constitutional amendment defining marriage as a joining of one man with one woman. That is the national consensus. However, if we look deeper into the intensity of each group on these issues, we see a much different picture. A few supporters of gay marriage are adamant in their views. They will mostly vote against Bush regardless of his stance, notwithstanding log cabin Republicans. However, most people who support gay marriages and civil unions, and thus oppose an amendment, do not hold that position with a great degree of fervor. By and large, they will not be motivated to take their votes away from Bush or to make sure they get out and vote against him when they would otherwise stay home. It's simply not that big an issue with them. It is an entirely different thing for a large portion of those who support the amendment. Their opposition to changing the traditional definition of marriage runs deep and strong. It is a big deal to them. Bush's stand on this issue will directly create votes for him among those whose intense feelings on this issue will overwhelm their general indifference to the political process.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Possibly the most significant development in the American election process since 2000 is the unbelievable strides the GOP has made in terms of volunteerism and organization. Once a domain dominated by Democratic special interests, get-out-the-vote is now practically a wash, and GOP operatives are frenetically working to increase the breadth and depth of grass-roots support structures all over the country. This is an amazing turnaround from 2000. It, alone, will turn many a close state into a comfortable Bush victory, while moving some comfortable Gore states within striking distance for the President.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A startling event took place in 2002. It was startling both in its circumstances and in the lack of focus it received. That event was the Florida gubernatorial election. What happened there, when taken in the context of the voting debacle two years earlier, was truly phenomenal. I'll recap it for you:

In 2002, Terry McAuliffe pledged that Jeb Bush, the president's own brother, would be defeated in his re-election bid. In fact, the DNC made the Florida governor's race their number one priority of the 2002 election cycle. Moreover, only two years removed from the spectacle of 2000, emotions and energy should have been be running extremely high among Democrats. Did we see massive Democratic turnout? Did Terry's threats come true, for once? Nope! What transpired was not a humiliating GOP defeat, but a Bush-brother victory by a count that exceeded Jeb's first election margin. He won by an amazing 13 points! It was a complete and utter repudiation of the revenge factor and clearly showed the strength of the GOP in that state. Without Florida as an obvious pickup target, the Democrats' options to gain ground shrink considerably.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

President Bush has gained a small yet concrete advantage heading into the elections this year. Red states in 2000 netted Bush 271 electoral votes. This year those same states would give him 278. In other words, he could lose a state like New Hampshire, Nevada or West Virginia and win anyway. Even losing a larger state such as Louisiana or Colorado would produce a 269-269 tie.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Despite his forays into fiscal liberalism - Medicare, immigration, education - the President maintains phenomenal support among Republicans. A poll in late January by the American Research Group found only 10% of GOPers disapprove of the job he is doing. Eighty-six percent approve. In addition, the vocal displeasure at his aforementioned transgressions has apparently not fallen on deaf ears. Recently he has offered peace offerings to the GOP faithful, such as a spending freeze on non-defense spending. Finally, his rock-solid conservative stands on abortion, judicial appointments, taxes, gay marriage, and National Security are sure to bring out a sizeable elephant stampede in November.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Can we trust a privileged businessman who has served but 6 years in elected office to handle the affairs of the most powerful nation on earth? In 2000, voters put their faith in an untested George W Bush. Four years later, his courageous, principled, and steadfast leadership have led this country through some of its most trying times. Even those who dislike and disagree with President Bush would be hard-pressed to deny the resolve of his leadership. He provided and continues to provide a steady hand when we need it most. Voters will feel eminently more confident to put their trust in him again this year.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Florida and New Hampshire were the two states that Ralph Nader's candidacy lost for Al Gore. I've already addressed the current situation in Florida. New Hampshires is not much different. Voters there have now elected two Republican senators, a Republican governor, and two Republican representatives. The GOP has a 3 to 1 advantage in the state senate and better than a 2 to 1 advantage in the state house. A Democratic victory here will be quite a feat, indeed.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pew research conducted a nationwide poll last summer to measure changes in party affiliation since the tragedy of September 11. Minnesota and Iowa have been trending Republican of late, and these shifts were quantified in that poll. They present yet another headache for McAuliffe's bunch. Now they have to row against the current in states that Al Gore won.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

California's fiscal health is the inevitable result of a steady diet of liberal policies. Last year, voters in this very blue state decided to switch chefs between meals. They settled on a Republican. In fact, over 60% of them voted for a GOP candidate. Does this mean 60% will vote for Bush? Not a chance. However, with this clear rejection of liberal economics and with the structural advantage that comes with control of the Governor's mansion, Republicans have a shot at competing for the biggest electoral prize in the nation. Regardless of the eventual winner, a competitive GOP in California would require Democrats to funnel precious resources to protect their most valuable bastion.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since Florida and New Hampshire are no longer the targets they once were for the DNC, Ohio becomes the challenge of choice. On the surface, Bush's narrow victory there in 2000 would give Democrats hope of taking it from the GOP in 2004. However, the political winds are blowing in the GOP's favor this year. Ohio's recent passage of a ban on gay marriage highlights their socially conservative lean. The impending battle in the gay marriage debate will solidify and motivate social conservatives in this crucial state, resulting in a more difficult obstacle for the Democrats to overcome.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Former Vermont governor Howard Dean has been a veritable political highlight reel. Never before in my memory has a candidate followed a path similar to the one of this eccentric politician. In the race for the Democratic nomination, it has been thoroughly entertaining to see this man so flamboyantly hurtle himself to the front of the pack only to relegate himself to also-ran status through clumsy mis-steps and childish outbursts, all in a period of a few months. But, even though he's finished as a viable choice, his candidacy will have far-reaching effects on the election in November. What Dean did was to identify and add fuel to a smoldering fire within a segment of the Democratic party. These liberal Bush-haters haven't broken their engagement with him. They understand that he "feels their anger" - the same anger that will now compel them vote for a third party candidate rather than betray their man by voting for the victorious Democratic foe. This group won't be huge, but it will be enough to give Bush another advantage.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I had to add this one. Bush has made a career out of having his opponents "misunderestimate" him. They show no signs of realizing that they really aren't dealing with a moron. How many more times will the Democrats ponder, "How did he do that?"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As I've mentioned above, national security will be paramount in voters' minds this election season. After Bush, no one personifies the triumph of American resolve in the aftermath of September 11 more than Rudy Giuliani. In the time since, he has shown himself to be a willing advocate for Bush and other Republicans on the campaign trail. His active presence can only help Bush's standing in November.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

An issue that, if used wisely, can be very effective in wooing conservatives and moderates alike, is the heavy-handed, partisan tactics of Democratic senators. Never before have a president's judicial nominees been subjected to filibusters with the reckless abandon employed by this group of liberal lawmakers. Democrats have charted virgin territory in their quest to stall Bush's vision for a balanced, non-activist federal judiciary. The GOP has an opportunity to wield this obstructionist track record to attract more moderate voters and win a larger portion of the hispanic vote - read this.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm sure there are more reasons for optimism. I'm also sure my counterparts on the left could come up with their own list of reasons for them to be hopeful. But the point has been made: President Bush is going to be one tough hombre to dislodge from that thar White House. When you Bushies out there are discouraged by the spin and disappointed by the polls, just read this list again and stop your fretting. But don't stop donating and volunteering. That will play a most critical part in making this view become a reality. He is certainly not assured of re-election, but, with our continued support and hard work, all signs point to a second term for George W. Bush, the 43rd President of the United States.

I do not understand my fellow conservatives. You do not want expanded government. You attack Bush for expanding Govt i.e the Patriot Act, and you blast him for too much spending. But you want Bush to regulate your companies business decisions and to subsidize private business like the farm industry to protect their jobs. Point of Fact, workers i.e. you and I are commodities. We market ourselves and our skill sets, companies that need those skills hire us at a cost commensurate with the value of our skills. If at any point we produce less and/or cost more, WE WILL BE OUT SOURCED! How is that Bush's fault?

A Counterpoint to #1.

At the very time that this report on Bush's previous arrest came out, there was a report that the emails on Gore's computers and others in the White House showed definitively that Gore KNEW he was attending a fund raiser at that Buddhist temple.

In fact, I posted a thread on it.

But the Dimbocrats loud bashing of the candidate Bush completely drowned out this revealing piece of information about the VP who was trying to become President.

It depresses me that the media/press are so Leftist, that the truth about BOTH sides cannot be made public and capture any attention. Only damaging information about Republicans are carried and pounded on, over and over and over.

Not even Fox News works very hard to keep up the drumbeat against Socialist lies.

But for Free Republic, I think I would have given up long ago.

"I would far rather lose my job and have the discomfort of re-tooling than to put a liberal anti-American DemocRAT such as Kerry in the office of President

In General I would agree. However, for me, if Pres. Bush doesn't put up a fight over the courts, then it doesn't matter what big spender is in office. His token recess appoint isn't gonna fire up the base, IMO.
"
Bush offered recess appoints to all the judges he has nominated, some refused. Bush has to hold back, he cannot fight all the judgeship battle and he knows he must be ready to fight for at least two Supreme Court Justices.

>>I do not understand my fellow conservatives. You do not want expanded government. You attack Bush for expanding Govt i.e the Patriot Act, and you blast him for too much spending.

>>But you want Bush to regulate your companies business decisions and to subsidize private business like the farm industry to protect their jobs.

The gov't already regulates business decisions. There is nothing wrong with that.

As far as subsidies goes, food needs to be grown for strategic purposes. If the world ever breaks out in world war again, we can't be dependant on foreign countries for food.

Think of farm subsidies as the strategic food reserve, much like the strategic oil reserve. (Tobacco included -- our soldiers need cigars to smoke!)

>>Point of Fact, workers i.e. you and I are commodities.

Thats your first mistake. Humans are not commodities. Commodities are used, abuse, and destroyed. Do you think any corporation can kill (destroy) someone? By your reasoning, they can, just like a lab rat which has outlived it's usefulness.

>>We market ourselves and our skill sets, companies that need those skills hire us at a cost commensurate with the value of our skills.

Nobody is arguing about that.

>>If at any point we produce less and/or cost more, WE WILL BE OUT SOURCED!

This is true, but typically happens is companies relocate within the country to areas where wages are lower. At least then the money is kept within our economy.

>>How is that Bush's fault?

How? A lack of leadership on this issue. A lack of asking Congress for legislation to prevent outsourcing. That's how.

The 13 Keys are:

1. Incumbent-party mandate: in the last congressional election, the incumbent party increased its seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

2. Nomination-contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third-part challenge.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession.

6. Long-term economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth is improving.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

12. The Base is solid...

I want to share with you - that's anyone who gives a crap - a poorly written e-mail that I sent to The RNC. I know that I could have done a better job on this e-mail but I didn't want to put any more time into it than what they've put into their "questionnaire for the mentally challenged". I read this piece of garbage and got angry thinking that they thought I was stupid enough to fall for it. Did anyone else get one of these Party Census Documents?

Copy of e-mail:

Grand Ol' Party Staff,

Please be rest assured that I am a registered and active voter who votes for conservatives.

I recently received the Party Census Document allowing me to relay to you my tastes and preferences for or against the policies of the party. It even had a convenient request for monetary contributions so that we could afford to mail out more. Let me first say that the format of the questionnaire was terrible and I wouldn't want to support mailing out any more of them. All the responses that you're going to get are going to be answered just the way you wish them to be. If one were to mail a questionnaire to a conservative that one knows lean conservative, then a more intellectual idea would be to mail a questionnaire that had a preference rating scale (of say 1-5). Unless of course one were not really going to do anything with the data and the true purpose was to solicit money.

For the record, I am no longer giving political contributions directly to the party. I feel that my contributions to the conservative cause are better left to the likes of "think tanks" - like the Heritage Foundation & Club for Growth - that do a much better job of selling the message. If I really followed my feelings, I would refuse to vote for the president in this upcoming election in order to send a strong message regarding his spending agenda, fortunately for him the Supreme Court and our national security are too important to be left up to ANY Democrat.

I do however have an idea that you may want to pass on to Chairman Gillespie...

I realize I live in one of the most liberal regions in the country (Manhattan), but I'm still baffled at the venom being spewed at Bush on a daily basis. Many of the Dem lies have already seeped into the voters' psyche- they truly believe that Cheney is directly involved in Haliburton's "mess", that Bush lied, that he's evil, etc etc etc...

It makes it EXTREMELY difficult to show public support of Bush - I can't recall this level of hate for any other politician...

Once again, I blame much of it on the Dems lying UNCHALLENGED, supported by an eagerly-complicit media... coupled with an inability or unwillingness to fight back

I've complained about this on any forum that will hear me, to the point it sounds shrill... The GOP had BETTER strike back, and soon... It's not just NYC that feels this way about Bush... Think about it... The Dems go on for over a year, spewing these lies, and the GOP does NOTHING to dispell/dispute them. NOTHING. Why wouldn't a large number of people believe the charges? This in turn feeds the perception that Bush is arrogant- that he continues his policies DESPITE the fact (perceived) that he lied about everything under the son).

I truly believe that 40% of the populace is beyond reach at this point, and no amount of advertising will change that at this point. That leaves a very small margin to work with. The longer the GOP waits, the more difficult it will be to turn around people's perceptions (see Bush 41).

If Bush and his team (CHENEY, FRIST, HASTERT) are not willing to start pounding away, and soon... if they're happier resting on their laurels than fighting the good fight to continue (that is, they'd prefer going into the sunset rather than ticking people off), I, for one, will absolutely DESPISE this President if he loses, and would consider him one of the WORST political fiascos I've encountered in my lifetime...

We are all relying on him to push forward the conservative cause, and we are all assuming that he will soon start fighting back. What if he doesn't? What if he continues on yesterday's disastrous path, where he prefers to turn the other cheek rather than fight? What if he wants his legend to be a "healer" rather than "fighter" for our causes? It would be a HUGE boondoggle, and one I'd never forgive. If he fights the good fight, he will continue to earn my utmost respect.

I think the Dems have switched their loyalty to Kerry too quickly. One month everyone loves Dean then suddenly when Dean implodes they all love Kerry.

Kerry has many skeletons in the closet and the dems are not vetting him for a Presidential run. To name a few: he is extremely weak on National Security, wants to raise taxes, has an elitist background, is connected with Jane Fonda, is a gigolo, has a nutty billionaire wife, has a weak twenty year voting record in the Senate, is connected to the hip of Kennedy, he doesn't think the south is important, etc......

Have the democrats really looked at his guy or he is "attractive" (I say loosely, Lurch) because he's not Howard Dean?

I hope Kerry does get the nomination. He is truly a weak national candidate.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.