1. Incumbent-party mandate: in the last congressional election, the incumbent party increased its seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
2. Nomination-contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third-part challenge.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession.
6. Long-term economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth is improving.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.