Posted on 02/05/2004 4:42:51 AM PST by Liz
The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is quickly shaping up as two separate contests: the battle among John Kerry's rivals to emerge as his chief competitor, and Kerry's struggle to keep the pack at bay.
It is a situation reminiscent of last year, when Howard Dean was dominating the field and opponents fought to become the Anti-Dean. But there is a difference: Kerry is steadily piling up delegates and would have to be stopped soon if at all.
"Every win Kerry has now, and every indication his base is broadening, makes it tougher for anyone else," said Russell Hemenway, a veteran Democratic fund-raiser based in New York. "The window of opportunity is narrowing."
The senator from Massachusetts won primary contests in five of seven states Tuesday night. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark have the strongest claim to oppose him after single-state wins. Dean, who has gone 0-9 so far, has a steeper hill to climb.
With each ballot test that comes and goes, however, Kerry's position becomes more formidable. No major party candidate since the emergence of the modern primary system in 1968 has crossed as many hurdles as Kerry and lost the party nod.
His opponents will try to make history with a risky strategy of cherry-picking states over the next few weeks on the way to Super Tuesday on March 2. The idea is simple: Trip the front-runner enough times and maybe he'll fall.
"It's called the late-late strategy," said Ross K. Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University. "It's the kind of plan the guys who are behind put together, because it represents the only hope they have."
The most extreme example of this tactic came in 1976, Baker said, when Democrat Frank Church hit the trail late and designated Nebraska as the place where he would stop Jimmy Carter's steamrolling campaign. The Idaho senator won Nebraska and a few other Western primaries, but it wasn't enough.
"It didn't work," Baker said. "Carter's momentum was so far advanced that no one could stop him. This idea of hanging back and trying to pick your shots doesn't seem to translate into more than an asterisk at the party conventions."
Making the challenge especially difficult for Kerry's rivals is this year's front-loaded calendar, which builds steadily over the next month toward Super Tuesday, when 1,151 of the 2,162 delegates needed to claim the nomination will be at stake on one day.
The schedule leaves limited room for dramatic reversals, but each of the second-tier candidates has mapped out a plan designed to propel him into a one-on-one race with Kerry, in the hope the front- runner then will stumble.
Edwards, fresh from his victory in South Carolina, sought support in two other Southern states yesterday, eyeing the contests in Tennessee and Virginia next Tuesday as his best opportunities to stay afloat.
"This is a very fluid race. It looks like it's narrowed down to two or maybe three candidates," Edwards told reporters after a rally at the Orpheum Theater in Memphis, Tenn. "And I think if it's two, it's myself and Senator Kerry."
Edwards was giving less attention to two states that vote on Saturday but where he has spent little time: Michigan and Washington. He planned a trip to Michigan but nothing to the Pacific Northwest.
Clark, an Arkansas native who won the Oklahoma primary Tuesday, was also skipping this weekend's contests. Like Edwards, the former general is seeking to cast himself as the Democrats' Southern alternative.
Looking ahead, Clark will go head-to-head with Edwards in Tennessee and Virginia, with a special focus on Tennessee. In fact, the two men's campaign press buses were parked next to each other at a Memphis hotel yesterday morning.
The danger for Edwards and Clark in the Southern contests is a split decision, a result that surely would benefit Kerry. By staying in the South, they also undercut their criticism of Kerry as a regional candidate with limited national appeal.
"They can take their potshots at Kerry from their sandbags on the Mason-Dixon Line, but that only underscores the fact that Kerry is the only candidate to win in several areas of the country," said Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University in Washington, D.C.
The challenges facing Edwards and Clark may be nothing compared with those facing Dean, who will try to win Washington state on Saturday, Maine on Sunday and Wisconsin on Feb. 17. The former Vermont governor is low on money and winless thus far, a perilous combination.
Money, which tends to flow to front-runners, takes on added importance as the campaign approaches the 10 contests on Super Tuesday, when candidates have to compete in the nation's most expensive markets, New York and California.
Highlighting the plight of the underdogs, Edwards had to take time off from the campaign trail last night to attend a fund-raiser in Hasbrouck Heights, where he hoped to raise $50,000 from a crowd of 50 to 100 supporters. (Dean, originally scheduled to appear tomorrow at a fund-raiser in the Elizabeth home of state Sen. Raymond Lesniak, decided to stay in Washington state; Gov. James E. McGreevey agreed to appear on Dean's behalf.)
Kerry, meanwhile, is the only candidate with the luxury of running a national campaign. Yesterday he promised to continue his strategy of relentless travel and outreach to Democrats in every region of the country.
"I'm going everywhere," he said. "That's the way I've run so far and that's the way I'm going to continue."
Star-Ledger wire services contributed to this report.
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