Kerry leading Bush in new poll

The survey, taken Thursday through Sunday, reflects the battering Bush has received from the Democratic presidential contenders for months and the questions raised in the past week about the administration's rationale for going to war with Iraq.

Even as a snapshot at a difficult moment, the poll shows perils for Bush early in the election year:

• Kerry defeated Bush 53% to 46%, a lead outside the poll's margin of error. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards edged Bush at 49%-48%, a statistical tie. Bush bested former Vermont governor Howard Dean by 7 points and retired Army general Wesley Clark by 3.

• Bush's job-approval rating dipped below 50% for the first time in his presidency, to 49%, and his disapproval rating rose to a record 48%. His approval ratings for handling the economy, Iraq and health care all fell to near-record lows.

• Support for going to war with Iraq also dipped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. The proportion of Americans who were certain that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction or was trying to develop them before the war fell dramatically. More than four in 10 said the administration deliberately misled the public about whether Iraq had the banned weapons.

In an attempt to address that concern, Bush agreed Monday to order a bipartisan probe into prewar intelligence. He spoke before meeting with former chief U.S. arms inspector David Kay, who has told Congress that reports the arms existed were wrong.

Bush, whose job approval was a robust 60% just three weeks ago, faces a more difficult landscape and some sobering history. Since World War II, only two presidents have trailed challengers early in the election year. In 1948, Harry Truman was behind Thomas Dewey but won in November. In 1976, Gerald Ford was behind Jimmy Carter and lost.

"Kerry's got a big bloom on the rose ... and as soon as that wears off, this race is going to be competitive from start to finish," says Matthew Dowd, strategist for the Bush campaign. He predicts that either candidate will find himself up or down 3, 4 or 5 percentage points through the year: "In a tight race in a closely divided country, this is where we'll operate."

Mark Mellman, a pollster and strategist for Kerry, says the poll underscores the opening for Democrats.

"People are unhappy with his (Bush's) economy performance, they're unhappy with the situation in Iraq, and Kay has dealt his credibility and/or his competence a real blow," Mellman says. He said Kerry has shown "tremendous strength" in recent weeks.

Among the Democratic candidates, Kerry was supported by a commanding 49% of Democrats nationally who are registered to vote. Former front-runner Dean was second at 14%, followed by Edwards at 13%.

gwb is a good man ...but that may not work in the general election...ill not abandon him of course but i believe a lot will...remember a lot of folks thought a man like clinton would never get elected!..one thing is for sure ..gwb has been underestimated his entire political career..still im worried about the election outcome and the direction we are headed even if he does win..if he drops in popularity we may lose some republican seats in the house and the senate! to further complicate things we really dont have much in the way of leadership in the house or the senate...IMHO

For those who missed it:

DrDeb posted this excellent analysis last night. It was a different poll but the conclusion applies to all polls.

REALITY CHECK

As predicted, Newsweek has provided its "Kerry for President" poll just in time for the Sunday talk shows (and its new 'Kerry' cover shot -- of course, one can only hope the cover shot does for Kerry what it did for Dean)!

Perspective:
1/29-30/04 49% approve 44% disapprove
1/22-23/04 50% approve 44% disapprove

WOW: How will the President ever recover from such a precipitous one-week decline in his approval ratings?! I was expecting something MUCH more dramatic from Newsweek!!! After all, the radical Left and Right (and their resective enablers in the media) have been taking unprecedented/unrelenting 'shots' at the President for weeks -- and this is the best they can do?!

Again, I hate to be redundant, but let's review the FACTS about polls one more time:

1.) Polls at this juncture merely track the general public's perception of the economy/job growth. As predictors of events in November 2004, polls conducted January - August are MEANINGLESS and polls conducted September - October are highly suspect. BOTTOMLINE: The only poll that matters is the one conducted in November!

2.) Relative to the general public's perception of the economy/job growth, tracking polls indicate that 'perception' started turning decidedly negative beginning with the January 9 jobs report. This past week, perception took another dive after Greenspan spooked the market and the 4.0 GDP growth failed to meet economists' expectations. FOR THESE REASONS ALONE, THE PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL RATINGS HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A HIT. CONCURRENTLY, KERRY'S RATINGS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

What will change this trajectory? A POSITIVE jobs report on February 6! If this report fails to meet analysts' expectations, the President's ratings will take another severe hit! We will then have to wait until spring for continued GDP growth, continued growth in corporate earnings and some good news on the job front (some pundits earmark March, others April).

[*Jobs: Many pundits indicate that the way in which the government collects and reports job data is flawed. For example, job growth numbers differ greatly depending upon which report one references. The household survey indicates that OVER 2 million NEW jobs have been added since the President took office; however, the 'business' survey puts this number at fewer than 200,000. Of course, the survey that will be referenced on February 6 will be the 'business' survey!]

AGAIN, IT'S A WASTE OF MENTAL AND EMOTIONAL ENERGY TO GET EXORCISED ABOUT POLLS AT THIS STAGE OF THE ELECTION CYCLE! Remember, we are helping the President run a MARATHON not a sprint!!

138 posted on 01/31/2004 9:06:53 PM CST by DrDeb

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