2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 2, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	77.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	20.0	0	55
Colorado	86.0	9	0
Connecticut	20.0	0	7
Delaware	42.5	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	70.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	40.0	0	21
Indiana	89.0	11	0
Iowa	71.0	7	0
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	93.0	8	0
Louisiana	90.0	9	0
Maine	43.0	0	4
Maryland	2.0	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	55.0	17	0
Minnesota	54.0	10	0
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	71.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	75.0	5	0
New Hampshire	58.0	4	0
New Jersey	22.5	0	15
New Mexico	70.0	5	0
New York	21.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	78.0	20	0
Oklahoma	93.0	7	0
Oregon	60.0	7	0
Pennsylvania	60.0	21	0
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	85.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	89.0	11	0
Texas	95.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	90.0	13	0
Washington	48.0	0	11
West Virginia	62.5	5	0
Wisconsin	61.5	10	0
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		355	183

[JohnnyZ]

This has to score Maryland major points in the debate over which state is the most liberal/Democratic.

There aren't enough naval officers in the world to offset Baltimore and all them government employees.

So Martin O'Malley really blew it when he endorsed Dean right before Iowa, huh? LOL.

After NH: Mayor Martin O'Malley, who also endorsed Dean last month, said Dean's second-place finish "is stronger than many expected after Iowa and shows the staying power of his message. ... He rebounded and stopped the slide tonight."

[inquest]

In other words, the 355 number, while imperfect, allows us to consider with more accuracy the effect of states falling off the GOP column.

I'll go along with that. Different methods of reckoning are useful for different purposes.

[inquest]

Further, this knowledge serves to cement my resolve to cast a "protest vote". I'm not needed to fend off evil by voting for someone whose evil is slightly lesser. What a burden to be relieved of! Living in a socialist dreamworld has at least one benefit: fanciful write-ins and 3rd-party rebellions are completely guilt-free, or in this one in particular, 98% guilt-free.

Perhaps this could be a ground of compromise between the die-hard Bush supporters and the 3rd-partisans. Conservatives in the single-digit states (as listed on this table) should assume carte-blanche to vote Constitution Party.

[raloxk]

MN and WI are trending R. The GOP candidate did about almost 10 points worse than their national average in those two states in 1988. In 2000, Bush lost to Gore by less than 1% in WI, about national average and less than 5% in MN. Had the 1988 voting patterns held in 2000, Bush would have lost both by more than 15 points. Also DEMS havent won the MN GOV since 1986.

Ohio has remained about 2 points more GOP than the country as a whole since 1980. It did go for Carter by only 20,000 votes in 1976, so that year it was about where the country as a whole was.

Since OH isnt a huge immirgation destination, its voting pattern has remained steady over 20 years, IL, CA, NJ havent.

[WOSG]

"Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House."

From your lips to God's ears!!

[Dan from Michigan]

Michigan in depth

I should have an update to that soon. Michigan certainly is in play, especially if John F'n Kerry is the nominee.

[WOSG]

Didnt Reagan carry mass. in 1984?

Dont most massachusetts residents oppose gay marriage?

Bush could carry it if he makes the case and it's a blowout election. JMHO.

[inquest]

Are you still thinking the election might be like 2000, or has your assessment changed since you posted that thread?

[inquest]

If Bush takes Massachusetts (especially against Kerry!), he'll be taking the whole country.

[Dan from Michigan]

I still think it'll be close. Dean hasn't been as tough since "Sit Down", but has organization. Kerry I think is easier to beat. Edwards and Clark are IMO the tougher two.

Bush's toughest opponent though is himself.

[WOSG]

I guess I am saying that a blowout ispossible.

I personally have been predicting a 54-46 win, and I'll stick with that for now as most likely. And that means maybe 350 or so EVs for Bush.

But the possibilities are wider: They fall between a Kerry (narrow) win, and a Bush electoral blowout as within the realm of possible.

We must not be complacent - Bush will only win if conservatives help him!

[inquest]

Bush's toughest opponent though is himself.

I agree. I don't know if you're thinking along the same lines I am, but this whole WMD thing might be a major liability depending on how he handles it. The part of his interview with Diane Sawyer that dealt with it seemed to have him a bit off-point. I'm glad that he now seems to be making a more serious effort to look into it, but he really needs to be more forthright about the issues involved. It's not enough to just say "Saddam Hussein's a bad person and America's safer now that he's gone." Not that that's not a true statement, but it doesn't answer the concerns about credibility many people - by which I mean swing voters - have. I think a lot of them would be willing to support his Iraq policy and cut him considerable slack, provided he comes clean with them about everything.

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

I feel good about Ohio because of what relatives who live there tell me. Local offices are switching R in huge numbers. Internals are changing. Clinton carried Ohio twice, but its unlikely to go that way again for awhile.

[HostileTerritory]

Dont most massachusetts residents oppose gay marriage?

Surprisingly enough, no. And even if they did, that wouldn't make them vote for Bush.

It was a balmy 38 degrees today. Reminded my why I stay here.

[Vermont Lt]

Yes, the Pubs did carry the state back then. But if JFK is on the ticket, then most brain dead folks in this state will think its the REAL JFK and vote for him without hesitation.

Bush could carry Bin Laden's head around Kenmore Square on a pike--hadning back all of our tax money, and he wouldnt get .0001% of a chance of carrying the state.

Somethings just are the way they are. Don't muddle the thinking with logic.

[Clintonfatigued]

This is interesting. But I'm skeptical on 90% for Louisiana, because the African-American population is growing 12 times faster than the white population.

[inquest]

Then why did their court need to impose it on them?

[HostileTerritory]

I'm not saying it EVER would have passed out of the legislature. A large number of people were mildly opposed to it before the court case but accepted the court decision. Poll numbers shifted strongly after the decision so a bare majority accepts "gay marriage" and only a minority wants to fight it. I did not expect that to happen, but it did.

[inquest]

Wow, that's depressing. Just goes to show how easily people's opinions can be manipulated.

[Looper]

Just read your Michigan analysis. Great work, Dan, which I read with interest because of the state's importance and the fact that my dad's from Michigan. Looking forward to an update from you.