I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2 posted on
01/26/2004 8:47:14 AM PST by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
This is, of course, BEFORE the arrest of Bin Laden and the passing of the bill to make the tax cuts permanent. (heehee)
To: Momaw Nadon
Delaware 42.5
Maine 46.0
Michigan 56.0
Minnesota 56.0
Oregon 58.0
Washington 48.0
This indicates that only 6 states are really in play...
To: Momaw Nadon
This is weird. I'm looking at it, and it seems overly optimistic, but when I delve further I can't find really any argument with it...at least not enough of one to make a difference in the outcome. Thanks for this.
To: Momaw Nadon
That's almost exactly how I have calculated it on numerous threads around here---340-350 EVs for Bush.
The only thing that could turn this into a Bush landslide would be one of the really biggies, NY, CA, or IL, going to Bush. That isn't out of the question.
11 posted on
01/26/2004 9:13:55 AM PST by
LS
(CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
To: Momaw Nadon
This figures will have to change when we know who is the final candidate for the Democrats. When people will compare George W. Bush with the actual Democrat candidate, they will be able to make their minds more specifically. I believe that many will prefer Bush.
13 posted on
01/26/2004 9:16:17 AM PST by
BplusK
To: Momaw Nadon
Iowa and Oregon are a bit too optimistic. Oregon has by-mail voting that spell rat voter fraud opportunity.
16 posted on
01/26/2004 9:19:34 AM PST by
jmaroneps37
( lurch and teddy perfect together!)
To: Momaw Nadon
Interesting site.
To: Momaw Nadon
According to the new Newsweek poll, Kerry leads Bush. These numbers will start to change.
19 posted on
01/26/2004 9:45:25 AM PST by
lasereye
To: Momaw Nadon
I doubt there is much trading in this market. A thin market is notoriously unreliable. It's also WAY too early.
To: Momaw Nadon
In the 2000 election, Connecticut was actually a Bush state until Lieberman was selected as the DEM VP candidate. Then it went soundly for the DEMs.
Unless Lieberman is the DEM candidate this year, Connecticut could go either way. People in Connecticut are not thrilled with Screamin' Deanie or Ketchup-Boy either.
31 posted on
01/26/2004 10:56:51 AM PST by
kidd
To: Momaw Nadon
This means nothing and is guess-work at best. Also, this must have come out before the new immigration amnesty plan. Arizonans will not take kindly to Bush's plan and could lose the state for him, since Arizona is overwhelmingly against amnesty and illegal immigration.
33 posted on
01/26/2004 11:11:42 AM PST by
exmarine
( sic semper tyrannis)
To: Momaw Nadon
Comparing to 1/21/2004 figures Bush went up in:
AR,CA,D.C, GA, IL, IO,ME,MA,MI,MN,NY,NC,OR,RI,SC
and down in
FL and TN
The figures in FL and TN may be within error range. This doesn't look good for the democrats.
35 posted on
01/26/2004 11:38:24 AM PST by
sr4402
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