[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Last week's projection:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[epluribus_2]

This is, of course, BEFORE the arrest of Bin Laden and the passing of the bill to make the tax cuts permanent. (heehee)

[Onelifetogive]

Delaware 42.5
Maine 46.0
Michigan 56.0
Minnesota 56.0
Oregon 58.0
Washington 48.0

This indicates that only 6 states are really in play...

[sirshackleton]

This is weird. I'm looking at it, and it seems overly optimistic, but when I delve further I can't find really any argument with it...at least not enough of one to make a difference in the outcome. Thanks for this.

[LS]

That's almost exactly how I have calculated it on numerous threads around here---340-350 EVs for Bush.

The only thing that could turn this into a Bush landslide would be one of the really biggies, NY, CA, or IL, going to Bush. That isn't out of the question.

[BplusK]

This figures will have to change when we know who is the final candidate for the Democrats. When people will compare George W. Bush with the actual Democrat candidate, they will be able to make their minds more specifically. I believe that many will prefer Bush.

[jmaroneps37]

Iowa and Oregon are a bit too optimistic. Oregon has by-mail voting that spell rat voter fraud opportunity.

[StriperSniper]

Interesting site.

[lasereye]

According to the new Newsweek poll, Kerry leads Bush. These numbers will start to change.

[You Dirty Rats]

I doubt there is much trading in this market. A thin market is notoriously unreliable. It's also WAY too early.

[kidd]

In the 2000 election, Connecticut was actually a Bush state until Lieberman was selected as the DEM VP candidate. Then it went soundly for the DEMs.

Unless Lieberman is the DEM candidate this year, Connecticut could go either way. People in Connecticut are not thrilled with Screamin' Deanie or Ketchup-Boy either.

[exmarine]

This means nothing and is guess-work at best. Also, this must have come out before the new immigration amnesty plan. Arizonans will not take kindly to Bush's plan and could lose the state for him, since Arizona is overwhelmingly against amnesty and illegal immigration.

[sr4402]

Comparing to 1/21/2004 figures Bush went up in:

AR,CA,D.C, GA, IL, IO,ME,MA,MI,MN,NY,NC,OR,RI,SC

and down in

FL and TN

The figures in FL and TN may be within error range. This doesn't look good for the democrats.