[sirshackleton]

This is weird. I'm looking at it, and it seems overly optimistic, but when I delve further I can't find really any argument with it...at least not enough of one to make a difference in the outcome. Thanks for this.

[LS]

What you have to do is ask yourself this: "What states that Bush won in 2000 can a Dem win today?"

You won't find many. MAYBE FL with the "right" candidate . . . except any named candidate gets creamed by Bush.

Now, ask "what states that Bush lost in 2000 can he win in 04?" I think you have to say MN, NM, IO, OR, PA, WI, and possibly NJ and MI. Throw in the fact that JUST the states Bush won in 2000 already have an additional 7 electoral votes (meaning he begins with 278 and the Dem has 7 fewer) and you see the magnitude of the Dem challenge.