2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, January 26, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

[RedWing9]

Around 2 weeks ago the Tribune showed that Bush had a 52% (or so) favorable rating in IL. Why is it not in play then?

[voicereason]

Now, ask "what states that Bush lost in 2000 can he win in 04?" I think you have to say MN, NM, IO, OR, PA, WI, and possibly NJ and MI.

I wouldn't count too much on PA. While its not to say that he couldn't win those votes, it would be a hard fight.

There is also a lot of time between now and the election. One move on the part of either candidate at the right time could have significant effects on the outcome. This amnesty situation is a prime example.

Wait till after the Conventions to see what transpires....

[Keith]

What many of us must remember is the "discouragement" factor.

In 2000, everyone knew it was going to be fairly close, no one knew HOW close. So people voted knowing that it could make a difference.

This year, I expect, as we get near the end of October, the inevitability of Bush's re-election will be obvious, and the Dems, who always have a problem getting the winos and city people to the polls, will suffer a decline in turnout.

It will lead to an even greater victory than the final polls predict...this is important because it will also affect those all important Senate races that we need to get our judges in.

[MattinNJ]

Forget NJ. I am surrounded by not just democrats, but fire breathing Bush haters. Jersey is done. Finito, Hasta la vista. Save yourselves."Drop all ammo on my hole. It's my call. Repeat. It's my call."

[Wright is right!]

"According to the new Newsweek poll, Kerry leads Bush. These numbers will start to change."

The Newsweek Poll is either an out-lyer or an intentional fraud. I have the strong suspicion that the polling unit was told what the desired result was in advance, and told to come up with it. It's nothing more than media propoganda.

Michael

[LS]

Nevertheless, recent polls have Bush defeating any Dem in NJ.

[You Dirty Rats]

I doubt there is much trading in this market. A thin market is notoriously unreliable. It's also WAY too early.

[Onelifetogive]

Why is it not in play then?

I just picked the states that (according to this oddsmaker) is between 40% and 60% chance of Bush winning. IL did't quite make it...

[lasereye]

The Newsweek Poll is either an out-lyer or an intentional fraud. I have the strong suspicion that the polling unit was told what the desired result was in advance, and told to come up with it. It's nothing more than media propoganda.

Is there another poll in the last few days you're relying on? Or you just assume Bush must be ahead? If the latter, it's not a good assumption.

[White Eagle]

52% favorable does not translate directly into 52% of the vote. The GOP in IL is still getting over the George Ryan scandal (Isn't it amazing that the IL Secy of State office, which has been a scandal on wheels since the days of Paul Powell and earlier, is now cleaner than the Vatican under Jesse White??) and until the GOP gets some names people can get behind or Gov Rod gets caught doing something Illinois will continue to look like a Democrat haven.

PS - Lynn Cheney is originally from Illinois. She would be a great campaigner here, at least with the people who are of an age to remember where she came from.

[kidd]

In the 2000 election, Connecticut was actually a Bush state until Lieberman was selected as the DEM VP candidate. Then it went soundly for the DEMs.

Unless Lieberman is the DEM candidate this year, Connecticut could go either way. People in Connecticut are not thrilled with Screamin' Deanie or Ketchup-Boy either.

[MattinNJ]

True, but the whole Torch-Forrester-Lautenberg fiasco just shows how corrupt and unsalvageable this state is.

Still, I wouldn't count Schundler out in a rematch with McGreevey.

[exmarine]

This means nothing and is guess-work at best. Also, this must have come out before the new immigration amnesty plan. Arizonans will not take kindly to Bush's plan and could lose the state for him, since Arizona is overwhelmingly against amnesty and illegal immigration.

[txrangerette]

The dubious assumption would be
to credit a Newsweek Poll. They
are very left-leaning, anti-GOP
& anti-Bush. True to their past.

The recent poll will be used in
a front-cover story to hype John
Kerry. That was their plan.

Now to the flawed methodology of
this poll. A sample of "adults
over 18" is who they polled. All
credible polls use "registered"
or "likely voters" as a sample.
One even narrows it down to "most
likely voters". Repubs do better
& better in each refinement.

[sr4402]

Comparing to 1/21/2004 figures Bush went up in:

AR,CA,D.C, GA, IL, IO,ME,MA,MI,MN,NY,NC,OR,RI,SC

and down in

FL and TN

The figures in FL and TN may be within error range. This doesn't look good for the democrats.

[AmishDude]

Remember that this is not polling data. This is according to a gambling market. This is just what gamblers believe. I think the number is way too high for Ohio, for example.

[txrangerette]

Wow, they will love the total,
immediate amnesty & citizenship
policy of the Dems, won't they?

Sorry, forgot that the point is
to punish Bush.

If successful, will hurt ME.
(not only me; just personalizing
it for emphasis)

Have read a number of your posts.
They depress me. Even scare me.

Seriously.

[Onelifetogive]

This is according to a gambling market.

Agreed...but gambling markets tend to be far more accurate than polls. Something about having real money riding on the outcome...

[Momaw Nadon]

Comparing to 1/21/2004 figures Bush went up in:

AR,CA,D.C, GA, IL, IO,ME,MA,MI,MN,NY,NC,OR,RI,SC

and down in

FL and TN

I believe it is the other way around.

President Bush lost ground in:

AR,CA,D.C, GA, IL, IO,ME,MA,MI,MN,NY,NC,OR,RI,SC

and gained in

FL and TN

[HRoarke]

Tough to say how a presidential election in FL will go, what with all of the stealing the election lies that will be told, but everyone thought that the 02 gubernatorial election was going to be close because of 2000 backlash. JEB! won in a landslide. This time they won't be able to exclude the military vote and the central time zone folks in west FL (Bush country) won't get scared away by an early call from the networks. I'll personally be volunteering my arse off...