[RedWing9]

Around 2 weeks ago the Tribune showed that Bush had a 52% (or so) favorable rating in IL. Why is it not in play then?

[Keith]

What many of us must remember is the "discouragement" factor.

In 2000, everyone knew it was going to be fairly close, no one knew HOW close. So people voted knowing that it could make a difference.

This year, I expect, as we get near the end of October, the inevitability of Bush's re-election will be obvious, and the Dems, who always have a problem getting the winos and city people to the polls, will suffer a decline in turnout.

It will lead to an even greater victory than the final polls predict...this is important because it will also affect those all important Senate races that we need to get our judges in.

[Onelifetogive]

Why is it not in play then?

I just picked the states that (according to this oddsmaker) is between 40% and 60% chance of Bush winning. IL did't quite make it...

[White Eagle]

52% favorable does not translate directly into 52% of the vote. The GOP in IL is still getting over the George Ryan scandal (Isn't it amazing that the IL Secy of State office, which has been a scandal on wheels since the days of Paul Powell and earlier, is now cleaner than the Vatican under Jesse White??) and until the GOP gets some names people can get behind or Gov Rod gets caught doing something Illinois will continue to look like a Democrat haven.

PS - Lynn Cheney is originally from Illinois. She would be a great campaigner here, at least with the people who are of an age to remember where she came from.