Dean back in dead heat with Kerry

msnbc ^ | 1/26/2004 | RepublicanWizard

[republicanwizard]

Statistically, two are tied in latest MSNBC pollBy Mike Stuckey MSNBC Politics Editor Updated: 7:00 a.m.ET Jan. 26, 2004 Howard Dean is riding a rollercoaster in the New Hampshire polls.

As quickly as he sank in the surveys following his dismal third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, Dean is rising again — so dramatically, in fact, that he is in a statistical dead heat with Sen. John Kerry in the latest MSNBC/Zogby Reuters Poll released Monday

[DM1]

I dont know about that new poll has Kerry ahead of Bush
really disturbed me

[HankReardon]

Are you disturbed enough to counter the leftist views in your local newspaper? They do have an editorial page you can contribute to. This is a battle for us all to engage in, it's no spectator sport.

[Savage Beast]

Lurch vs. The Vermonster! The Democrats sure know how to pick'em.

[shhrubbery!]

I dont know about that new poll has Kerry ahead of Bush really disturbed me

I wouldn't worry about that too much. IIRC the polls had Carter beating Reagan, and Mondale beating Reagan at several points during those campaigns; and Dukakis beating GHWBush, too.

[Go Gordon]

Someone (and I don't remember who) said that Zogby used his secret "sauce" to get those poll results. The phrase has stuck and is used whenever Zogby presents one of these odd polls.

Also part of the "sauce" reference is the fact that there is a product on the market called Zogby's Special Sauce - I think its a barbeque sauce.

[CasearianDaoist]

Or a lot of rebulicans voting in the Dem primary. I know I'd be out there giving dean my "support" if I lived up there.

[chiller]

Bad sampling (adults rather than likely voters), and amid all the Dem publicity of the primaries which has been wall to wall. Not to worry.

[DM1]

I know but it still is disturbing, i really really dont like Kerry

[DM1]

ah yes
i am disturbed enough to do so
and have done so
will continue to do so
if they bother to publish it
;)

[evad]

INDEED!

1 - The demographic model that a polling outfit uses for the universe of primary voters, and thus how they sample it.

2 - The difference between registered voters and "likely" voters. If a poll uses likely voters, it needs a model to identify them (e.g., "did you vote in the last primaries?").

3 - How hard a poll leans on respondents to choose a preference.

These factors are always present, but harder to discuss because you can't look them up in a statistics textbook. Polling outfits are quite close-mouthed about these things, especially #1, so we don't know what they are doing. Zogby's Special Sauce is legendary, but only Zogby knows what it is, and everyone else has their own special sauce.

[Aquinasfan]

On Fox this morning they were saying that in 30 different polls Kerry was up by an average of 20 points. Then again, NH voters like to be contrarians. And I bet a lot of Republicans are crossing over to vote for Dean.

[evad]

I dont know about that new poll has Kerry ahead of Bush really disturbed me

Fear not..polls on the general election at this point are absolutely meaningless.

[IWONDR]

Unfortunately, as i recall, Zogby's call in the Bush/Gore presidential race was the closest to actual of all the pollsters. Most of the others had Bush winning by a fairly comfortable margin. I think we have to keep a close eye on what Zogby's polls may be indicating.

[COBOL2Java]

I'd like to see the three of them slug it out all the way up to the DemocRATic Convention. They'll wind up spending more and more money against each other - Kerry will wind up putting his wife's shoes out on eBay for all we know.

The only problem I see with that scenario is that there will be a huge slugfest at the convention with no apparent winner...until...SHE enters in and deigns to "save" the party.

[freeperfromnj]

As much as I hate everything Dean stands for, I hope he kicks Kerry's smug little butt right out of New Hampshire.

[Ga Rob]

I heard Kerry say yesterday on FNS "If I'm then nominee early enough"...you know they don't want to slug it out..but I think Dean will try...just to be an instigator!!

[Johnny_Cipher]

I found the Ultimate Dean Sample List in another forum:

Welcome To Dean's Jungle
Dean Dance
Dean Rap
Crazy Train Mix
Dr. Dre Dean
Oy! Dean
Dean's White Album
Dean Does The Beach Boys
Deansane In The Membrane
America
Dean Out Of The Tunnel With The Pats
Iron Dean
Another One They Play At Gillette
Pretty Fly For Dean
We Were Just Talking About This - O Fortuna Dean

[OldFriend]

Having worked on campaigns and having compiled lists of likely voters, I can assure you that the lists are purchased by the big boys.

We would actually go into the voting records to see how many times the person voted and whether they vote only in the presidential elections or vote in primaries, local elections, school board, etc.

For those who want the real guesstimate, they use the list compiled with the most relevant data.

These lists take time and money and only the state or presidential campaigns can afford them. They purchase.....the rest of us do our own local compiling.

[OldFriend]

Notice how the media ignored completely Kennedy's rant for Kerry.

Dean gave the media a good reason to tear into him but it seems to have backfired because they went too too far and gave him a human face when he tried to ammend for his outburst. Now that the free fall is ended he is back to his former insane self.

[George W. Bush]

Having worked on campaigns and having compiled lists of likely voters, I can assure you that the lists are purchased by the big boys. We would actually go into the voting records to see how many times the person voted and whether they vote only in the presidential elections or vote in primaries, local elections, school board, etc.

You're the only one I've found who has this same experience.

I'm trying to get a newer copy of my congressional districts voter database right now. Despite lackadaisical database maintenance, it's a real eye-opener.

I think Zogby's secret sauce is using such voter info to help select his pollee's. He's using his past exit-polling and voter data to help select his new samples.