Poll: Kerry Could Beat Bush

Newsmax.com ^ | 01-25-04 | PR Newswire

[Theodore R.]

Poll: Kerry Could Beat Bush PRNewswire

Jan. 25, 2004

NEW YORK-- Senator John Kerry has taken the lead nationally among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters over Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the race for the Democratic nomination, according to the latest Newsweek Poll.

Kerry leads the field with 30 percent, followed by Sen. John Edwards with 13 percent. Howard Dean falls to 12 percent from 24 percent in the last Newsweek Poll two weeks ago, and is even with General Wesley Clark, also at 12 percent.

Kerry also leads the pack of Democratic contenders among registered voters as the candidate who would have a better chance of beating President George W. Bush if the election were held today.

A Kerry-Bush match-up would have Kerry up by 49 percent to Bush's 46 percent. A Clark and Bush match-up would be a close race, with Bush at 48 percent and Clark at 47 percent. Bush would have an edge over Edwards (49% to 46%). Yet, with a plus or minus margin of error, these match-ups result in a statistical dead heat. And the President would beat Dean (50% to 45%) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (49% to 45%).

And Democrats and Democratic learners also think Sen. John Kerry has the best chance (48%) of defeating Bush in November, and is the candidate mostly likely to do so (43%). Howard Dean follows at 26 percent (a drop from 38% in the 12/11-12/03 Newsweek Poll). Only 15 percent think Dean would most likely defeat Bush. In third is Wesley Clark at 23 percent, and John Edwards at 22 percent. Only 14 percent say Joe Lieberman has a good chance of beating George Bush.

And more registered voters (54%) and Democrats and Democratic leaners (74%) have a favorable opinion of Kerry followed by Lieberman with 48 percent of registered voters, but only 56 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners. Edwards follows with 60 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners, but only 46 percent of registered voters. However, 42 percent of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Howard Dean, though a 57-percent majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners has a favorable opinion of the Vermont Governor.

Ticket Combinations

And the combination of Democrats considered the best ticket to beat Bush in November among Democrats and Democratic leaners would be Kerry-Edwards or Kerry-Clark, both at 21 percent, followed by Kerry-Dean (19%).

Meanwhile, a week after President Bush's State of the Union address, his approval rating has fallen to 50 percent from 54 percent in the last Newsweek Poll (1/8-9/04). Yet, a 52-percent majority of registered voters says it would not like to see him re-elected to a second term. Only 44 percent say they would like to see him re-elected, a four-point drop from the last Newsweek Poll. (Of that, 37% strongly want to see him re-elected, and 47% strongly do not). However, a large majority of voters (78%) says that it is very likely (40%) or somewhat likely (38%) that Bush will in fact be re- elected to a second term in office. Only 10 percent believe it is not too likely or not at all likely (10%).

With 52 percent of registered voters saying they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. this year, the issues that are very important in helping them determine who they will vote for are: the economy and jobs (83%); health care (75%) and education (74%); the situation in Iraq and terrorism and homeland security (70%). The least important is the appointing of new Supreme Court justices and federal judges (42%).

A 53-percent majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners say they are more inclined to vote for the candidate who comes closest to their way of thinking on the issues rather than the candidate with the best chance of defeating President Bush (39%). And the large majority (71%), says it's very important that the Democratic presidential nominee has clear-cut alternatives to Bush on issues like Iraq and taxes; can attract young people and other first-time voters to turn out and support the Democratic ticket (70%); understands the concerns of working families because he grew up in one (64%); has foreign policy and national defense experience (56%), and comes across as even-tempered and appeals to voters in the South (54%).

For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older on January 22-23, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. This poll is part of the February 2 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, January 26).

© 2003 Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

[Theodore R.]

Columnist Robert D.S. Novak said on CNN's "Capital Gang" Saturday that Bush has made an "inauspicious beginning" for a reelection campaign. Novak said the State of the Union address was unimpressive, a laundry list of government spending, and he stressed that Bush has not satisfied conservatives, particularly on the "gay marriage" issue.

[mewzilla]

The Newsweek poll, which came out just in time to reassure NH Dems how electable Ketchup Boy is, is a crock. The poll didn't even ask registered or likely voters, just warm bodies. Ask yourself why Newsweek did a poll that way...

[goldstategop]

If America is ready to elect its first French-looking President, we should apply for France to annex us.

[Jim Noble]

Good thing the election isn't for ten and a half months...

I think polls should be banned.

The reality is, politicians all hate elections. The thought that mere civilians, ones with dirty hands at that, can cause their matchless life to come to an end by such a crude tool as voting is just...just...unthinkable.

So, they prefer a contest in which the outcome is fixed.

How to do it?

Run elections like they were sporting events, with teams. Encourage voters to "pick their team" before they know anything about the candidates, by constant polling.

Use their friends in the media to push, "Who's ahead?"

Of course, the only relevant endpoint is who is ahead after all the votes are counted on November 2-3, 2004, and who has 271 electoral votes as a result.

The rest of this is meaningless garbage.

[C210N]

"unimpressive" due to laundry list of govt spending?

I thought it was more "unimpressive" to a typical lib due to a list of initiatives that don't involve much govt spending.

[cynicom]

Partisan pubs bought the Newsweek polls that showed Bush in the lead. When they change, the polls become hatchet jobs.

[elhombrelibre]

Ask yourself this, how bad will it be to run against a man who is nearly Ted Kennedy? How many flip flops will Kerry have made by the time he must face Bush? How many dumb things will be exposed about him now that he is the front runner by his Democratic foes? How many times in the last 50 years has a Northern liberal won the White House? Don't go wobbly, folks. When the choices are Bush a known quantity and Kerry a soon to be known quantity, people will vote for Bush and he'll win.

[InvisibleChurch]

W in a romp

[steve50]

I've seen the talking heads pushing the line that Kerry may be electible since Iowa. The press seems to want a Bush vs Kerry ticket.

[dakine]

Maybe having a "D" president with an "R" Congress will cause some gridlock in D.C. and stop all the outrageous spending...
That's how I am starting to think....

[SMGFan]

You mean the election is in nine months and one week.

[AD from SpringBay]

Otherwise, it would be kinda hard to sell newspapers. Gotta have a close race boys!

[the invisib1e hand]

Kerry could beat Bush

won't happen.

[Behind Liberal Lines]

Neither Bush nor his supporters should be over confident here, but at the same time, it is typical at this point in an election year for the opposition party's frontrunner to poll better than the incumbant.

This is probably because the frontrunner is the benefictiary of favorable press, his record has not been particularly well scrutinized and he is a relatively fresh face, compared to the incumbant (in this case most definiately only figuratively).

Wait until September before the polls, good or bad for the president, are more reflective of actual sentiment and,t herefore, really matter.

[Common Tator]

Novak wrote a column about n 1984 saying Ronald Reagan was in big trouble. Novak's July 1984 column said Walter Mondale was leading Reagan by 20 points.

Of course on election day 1984 Reagan won 49 states including Massachusetts.

Why did the Clinton News Network hire Novak?

Because Novak is a registered Democrat in real life who plays an inept conservative in newspapers and on TV.

[Neets]

They did a poll that way to nudge the NH voters to give Kerry the Nom.....

[billva]

Kerry should revel in the news. He could well get the nomination.

Getting elected is quite another proposition. As said I don't have a lot of faith in this poll. I used to believe polls are unbiased. I'm no longer so naive.

Also Kerry will not be running against the pitiful Democratic candidates that he is now and a lot of his baggage will come out.

Unless there is a real bad turn in Iraq, or the economy goes into the tank, Bush wins.

[Theodore R.]

Maybe having a "D" president with an "R" Congress will cause some gridlock in D.C. and stop all the outrageous spending...

But what about the judicial nominees?

[pepperdog]

My goodness, how things can change while one sleeps. Just last night I read that Dean was making a comeback, now Kerry is the Dems fearless leader. I think the pollsters are using soap opera writers just to keep their names in the headlines. Where is poor Deanie now?

[Theodore R.]

Novak still said that he is for Bush because of tax cuts. He is for anybody who supports any tax cuts, he said.