Newsweek Poll: Kerry surges to the head of the pack, beating even Bush. ( Lib RAG Alert)

newsweek via msnbc.msn.com ^ | 01/24/04 | Brian Braiker

[KQQL]

Bush’s own standing has slipped among registered voters. "Because of American leadership and resolve, the world is changing for the better," he declared Tuesday. But more people now say they are dissatisfied (52 percent) than satisfied (43 percent) with the way things are going in the United States, down from a post-9/11 peak last April of 50 percent satisfied. And even thought Bush used the State of the Union to emphasize his controversial tax cuts, Medicare overhaul, opposition to gay marriage and a burgeoning economic rebound, Bush saw his job performance ratings dip to 50 percent approval (versus 44 percent who disapprove)—his most negative ratings to date—suggesting a nation sharply divided over the president and his policies. To be sure, Bush is just as solidly backed by Republicans (85 percent) as he is opposed by Democrats (86 percent).

Overall, 52 percent of those polled by NEWSWEEK say they would not like to see Bush serve a second term, compared to 44 percent who want to see him win again in November.

As a result, Kerry is enjoying a marginal advantage over Bush, a first for the poll. Forty-nine percent of registered voters chose Kerry, compared to 46 percent who re-elected Bush.

In fact, all Democrats are polling better against Bush, perhaps due to increased media attention to their primary horserace: Clark gets 47 percent of voters’ choice compared to 48 percent from Bush; Edwards has 46 percent compared to Bush’s 49; Leiberman wins 45 percent versus Bush’s 49 percent; and Dean fares the worst with 45 percent of their votes to Bush’s 50 percent.

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For this NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older Jan. 22 and Jan. 23 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points

[deport]

Close........ you think?

Remember The President's re-election campaign hasn't even kicked off...... There is $100+ million in funds to use to sway opinion, take the democrat to task, etc..... Too early to call it close, landslide or a loss..... Come the 1st of Sept. then things will begin to fall into a much truer focus......

[EGPWS]

If Americans keep dying in Iraq, and no WMDs turn up, Bush is done.

I disagree. I hope your statement is wrong with Americans dying, however the lack of WMD in Iraq is not the end of Dubya'.

Dubya's tenur to date does not focus the publics minds on WMD's alone. As much as Chirac want's this to be the case it just isn't so.

[KQQL]

Close in popular votes, not in Electoral votes

[Hop A Long Cassidy]

>>>"well you canalways vote for Kerry....lol"

W can immediately protect our borders with troops, and send all law-breaking illegals back rather than screaming at President Kerry on the TV from W's Crawford ranch. lol

But, "Oh no! He's going to ride that dead horse into the ground." Did you notice that I had to be redundant here: law-breaking illegals?

Apparently W wants to award law breakers, and the media wants to call illegal aliens other names, like "undocumented workers" and such.

So people who want to uphold the law have to resort to such redundancy so that those "euphemismos" out there can know who we're really talking about.

Hoppy

[Michael81Dus]

I don´t care about the polls. All what matters are the emotions. If the Democrats "smell sunrise", they will be a real danger for Bush, and even worse, that´ll unite them. When parties have accepted ONE leader, they will support him and stop acting like a bunch of crybabies.

Winning polls doesn´t mean winning the election. My party was leading the whole year in 2002, though we narrowly lost to Schröder. And what happened a month after the election? Polls were up for us again - and still are. I am sick and tired of winning polls. I want to win elections! :-)

[rockinonritalin]

Forget the economy. If Americans keep dying in Iraq, and no WMDs turn up, Bush is done.

The war in Iraq has been a tremendous success and by Nov 2004 it will only get better, even if WMD stockpiles are not found. Bush will run on it and win.

[EGPWS]

This country is so filled with whack-jobs and idiots that we're certain to see Hillary in the WH in 2008.

If you are correct with your statement, then we have been lost long ago, and Dubya's tenure is just the calm before the storm.

Doom and Gloom is a long forgotten mind set of mine, hence, IMHO Dubya' WILL be the next POTUS.

Where we go from there? Who know's.

[KQQL]

Bush 46% Democrat 44%

Bush 47% Kerry 39%

Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 46%
Democrat 44%
Other 4%
Not Sure 7%

http://rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

These results are from a national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely Voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. Methodology

[Texas_Dawg]

W has hacked off a lot of conservative voters, including me.

That's nice.

[Alas Babylon!]

Unlike Germany, or like it for that matter, the vote for president is really 50 separate elections, not one national election, except they all take place on the same day. Bush is leading in all the states he won in 2000, and because of our constitutionally-mandated census every ten years, in which congressional seats are reapportioned, those same states Bush won in 2000 have even more electoral votes, and those that Gore won have less. If nothing changes, and the popular vote is split just like in 2000, Bush will win more electoral votes than he did in 2000. I think, after 9/11, things have indeed changed, and I don't think Bush will lose, but rather win big.

[anniegetyourgun]

Yes, I think he is likely to be re-elected. And yes, I think it is the calm before the storm.

[Dane]

I don´t care about the polls. All what matters are the emotions. If the Democrats "smell sunrise", they will be a real danger for Bush, and even worse, that´ll unite them. When parties have accepted ONE leader, they will support him and stop acting like a bunch of crybabies.

I understand that but it is January, 10 months till the election.

Also their is always euphoria when a perty picks a cnadidate and then it dissipates. Kerry is an effete liberal and will turn off many.

[FreeReign]

Folks should remember that Gore and Nader got 51 percent last time round and that immigrants and their children joining the voting roles have probably added another one percent to the blue side of the ledger since then. Bush has always faced a tough reelection fight - even before he pissed off his base.

What you describe is a no-win situation. It may even be accurate.

[Texas_Dawg]

Close in popular votes, not in Electoral votes

<a href="http://www.electionprojection.com</a>Wrong again.</a> <p> Sorry to disappoint you.

[deport]

And?....... do you think $100 million+ will not sway some votes and redefine the democrat opponent.... They are getting the bulk of the media coverage for now and a free ride on the slander or misinfo etc. ...... I'm not saying that's not what the polls are showing... My belief is that will turn when the Bush-Cheney campaign begins......

[EGPWS]

even before he pissed off A small portion of his base.

[Texas_Dawg]

D'oh!

[Texas_Dawg]

even before he pissed off a small portion of his Pat Buchanan's base.

[Alas Babylon!]

You are right, he will only compete with W in following Red states NH, NV, AZ, OH , FL, WV and AR.

I agree, but other states that Gore barely won will be in competition for Bush: MN, WI, OR, PA, MI, IA, ME, and maybe even CA, if Arnold strongly helps campaign, and he said he will.

[Souled_Out]

"On the advice of people such as Karl Rove, Bush has calculated the odds and determined that he must suck up to seniors and illegal aliens to win."

Your point is well made. The election is President Bush's to lose if he expects people to vote for him no matter what he does he is a member of the wrong party.

If he can get the vote of two illegal aliens to make up for every conservative vote lost then he can not help but win.

My hope is he will end up changing his mind about flooding our country with illegal aliens.