Posted on 01/24/2004 10:10:43 AM PST by Pubbie
MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry holds a nine-point lead over Howard Dean in New Hampshire but the race appears to be tightening, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Saturday.
Kerry led Dean 31 percent to 22 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, but the last day of polling showed Kerry with a much smaller margin over Dean while John Edwards and Joseph Lieberman both gained ground on the leaders.
"Kerry's lead is now nine points over three days, however he led only by 26 percent-22 percent over Dean in Friday polling alone, while Edwards and Lieberman each hit 10 percent," pollster John Zogby said.
"Dean's showing on Friday may suggest that he has bottomed out and may in fact be starting to increase," Zogby said. "Another day like this and Dean may be in striking distance again."
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
The Democratic race in New Hampshire has been turned upside down by the results of Monday's Iowa caucuses, where Kerry rolled to a big win and one-time front-runner Dean collapsed to third place in the battle to find a candidate to challenge President Bush.
Dean's much-lampooned Iowa concession speech appeared to damage his candidacy as Kerry stretched his lead in polls, but the former Vermont governor made light of it on Thursday and appeared on national television with his wife, Judy, in an interview designed to soften his image.
Dean, who held a more than 20-point lead over Kerry in New Hampshire in December, suggested on Friday that his campaign had "turned a corner" and was coming back up.
"We know New Hampshire always likes to change what Iowa does," Dean told campaign volunteers in Keene, New Hampshire. "The question is how hard everyone is willing to work to get to where we were before."
Retired Gen. Wesley Clark, in third place, held steady at 14 percent. Edwards, a North Carolina senator, and Lieberman, a Connecticut senator, each gained one percentage point to 8 and 7 percent, respectively, over the course of the three days of polling.
The number of undecided voters dropped from 17 percent to 13 percent three days before the primary, the poll found.
Zogby said Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, held leads among most sub-groups in the poll. That included double-digit advantages with independents, who form the state's largest voting bloc and can vote in either party's primary.
The poll of 601 likely primary voters was taken Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. It will continue through Tuesday, the day of the New Hampshire primary.
Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich received 2 percent in the poll, with civil rights activist Al Sharpton getting 1 percent.
Grandfather Twilight is deeply saddened.
http://www.kucinich.us/endorsements/endorsements/grandfather_twilight.php
Creatures of Forest Sign on for Kucinich
Among the Trees, 7 pm--A sober mood here broke into a raucous celebration as creatures great and small followed the Bear's lead in signing a statement endorsing Dennis Kucinich for President in 2004.
REAL DEAL
ZOGBY ERROR ANALYSIS [CLOSE LOOK AT ZOGBY "SAUCE" DATA ]:
Zogby IOWA Poll for 01/18/04 - Kerry 24, Dean 23, Gephardt 19, Edwards 18.
Actual IOWA caucus 01/20/04 - Kerry 38, Edwards 32, Dean 18, Gephardt drops out
CONCLUSION - ZOGBY off by 14% on Kerry. A roomful of monkeys could do better
And his looks can scare children.
"I'M FEELING MUCH BETTER!"
One would assume that Dean would be using his one major advantage in this race: $Big $Bucks. If he isn't spending big on TV ads right now he is making a big mistake. I'll bet he is.
Any NH Freepers out there who are watching the tube?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.