If the Primary Were Held Today,
Whom Would You Vote For?
Posted on 01/21/2004 8:01:19 PM PST by RWR8189
Kerry is closing in
PRINCETON, NJ -- Monday's Iowa caucuses produced the political equivalent of an earthquake, shifting the fates of the Democratic presidential candidates with speed and shock value. Now that the Iowa winner, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, has the "big mo" and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (who came in third) is trying to find the ground beneath his feet, the political expectation is that Kerry will get a bounce in voter support in New Hampshire. He could even go on to win this jewel in the crown of state primaries next week.
It will take more than one day, however, to see if these prognostications are correct. The New Hampshire-based tracking polls, Gallup's included, will not have a clear post-Iowa result for two more days (as pre-Iowa data are gradually replaced by post-Iowa data in the three-day rolling averages). Just as importantly, any immediate bounce Kerry receives in New Hampshire from his impressive Iowa victory may or may not last.
At the moment, the signs are positive for Kerry. Today's results from the 2004 CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll in New Hampshire, with interviews conducted Jan. 18-20, show Dean leading Kerry by only two points, 30% to 28%, among likely Democratic primary voters. This includes two days of polling completed before the results of the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses were reported, and one day of polling after the caucuses. The previous tracking result, from Jan. 17-19 (with all interviews conducted before the Iowa results were reported), showed Dean with a seven-point lead, 32% to 25%.
| Likely New Hampshire Voters: If the Primary Were Held Today, Whom Would You Vote For? |
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This degree of change in the horse race is not statistically significant given the 4-point margin of error for the poll. But the internal data show a clear shift in New Hampshire's political winds, with Kerry picking up substantially in interviews conducted last night. If that pattern continues for the next night or two, Kerry will be the clear front-runner by week's end. The Thursday night candidate debate in New Hampshire could be crucial in determining what happens after that.
Not only is Kerry virtually tied with Dean for first place in New Hampshire, but Kerry leads Dean when factoring in voters' second choices for the Democratic nomination, which gives a broader sense of potential support for the candidates. Yesterday, Dean led by two points on this measure. Now, almost half of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters (46%) would vote for Kerry as their first or second choice. That compares with 43% for Dean, 37% for retired Gen. Wesley Clark, and 23% for North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman is mired in the teens (at 17%) on this measure, while Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich has only 4%.
Edwards' N.H. Candidacy Not Transformed by Iowa
Edwards' strong second-place showing in Iowa has reportedly given new life to his candidacy, raising his media profile as well as his fundraising receipts. But the CNN/USA Today/Gallup New Hampshire tracking poll finds no evidence of a groundswell of support for Edwards in the Granite State, at least not yet. He is up slightly (at 9% currently, compared with 7% in yesterday's poll), but remains well behind Clark, who is in third place with 19%. The nightly numbers suggest Edwards may have as much as doubled his support in New Hampshire since Iowa, but given the low point at which he started, that is not enough to change his overall positioning.
Survey Methods
New Hampshire tracking results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 280 New Hampshire residents per night who say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary on Jan. 27. Results are reported in three-day rolling averages.
The most recent results are based on interviews conducted Jan. 18-20, 2004, with 644 New Hampshire residents deemed most likely to vote in the Democratic primary. For this sample, the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±4 percentage points.
The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout rate of 60% of those who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary -- approximately 25% of New Hampshire adults. The "likely voter" results are weighted to match this assumption (weighted sample size is 497).
All results reported here are based on likely voters.
Number of Interviews |
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Plan to vote in |
Likely |
Margin of error, "likely voter" sample |
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|
2004 Jan 18-20 |
849 |
644 |
±4 pct. pts. |
 |
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Governors make better Presidents than Senators
Only 2 sitting senators in our entire history have ever been elected President
No. Harding and JFK. Senators who eventually became president include: James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, Martin Van Buren, William Henry Harrison, John Tyler, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Benjamin Harrison, Warring Harding, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Richard Nixon.
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