The Blue State Report (eight new polls in states President Bush did not win in 2000)

1/16/2004 | RepublicanWizard

[republicanwizard]

Today's Blue State Report will consist of polling data from the following five states-New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Iowa, and California.

Together, those states account for 129 electoral voters, or nearly half of those won by Bush's Democratic opponent in 2000.

New York (31 electoral votes)-A Marist Poll the other day showed that "President George Bush’s approval rating is currently 52% among New York State's registered voters. This is an increase since a similar poll conducted last September. 47% do not rate his job performance positively."

Voters were nearly evenly split on whether they would vote to re-elect the President. A Zogby Poll taken before Saddam Hussein's capture showed the President winning 42% of the vote in the Empire State. That is a huge improvement over the 2000 result.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/0401pz.htm

Ne Jersey (15 electoral votes)-A Farleigh Dickinson Public Mind Poll states that "President Bush’s popularity among voters in the Garden State rebounded in the New Year. According to the most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, half of New Jersey voters rate his job performance as excellent or good."

Specific match-ups show that the President would defeat Democratic frontrunner Howard Dean by a 45% to 28%. Of course the pollsters, Democrats, had to seek the input of two people who said Bush doesn't have a chance to win New Jersey. Laughable when one considers that President Bush defeats the generic Democrat by eight points.

http://www.politicsnj.com/fdu011604.htm

Iowa(7 electoral votes)-President Bush narrowly lost the Hawkeye State in 2000, but it may be different this time. Despite the fact that the six dwarfs have been attacking him relentlessly, President Bush leads anyone of them by a healthy margin. For example, he pulls 50% of the vote against his likely opponent, Howard Dean.

http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2750996/detail.html

Illinois (21 electoral votes)-Many of us were astounded, not by the fact that Illinois went Democratic in 2000, but that the margin was so large. However, it may be different this time. Two separate polls show that President Bush is doing well in the Land of Lincoln. One is the Chicago Tribune Poll which shows President Bush hovering near 50%, leaving Howard Dean 46% to 40%. Another Mason-Dixon poll showed the President also leading by a slightly larger 49% to 40% margin. Dean has high unfavorables in Illinois, a state which is econmically hurting and a must-win for a Democrat.

http://www.thetimesonline.com/articles/2004/01/10/news/local_illinois/cd952544280e7ad286256e170002e460.txt

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0310270202oct27,1,107734.story?coll=chi-news-hedv

Finally, the biggest prize of all:

California (55 electoral votes)-President Bush lost California in 2000 by over a million votes. Two years later, the GOP went on to lose the Gubernatorial race against an unpopular incumbent. Then came the recall, and everything has changed:

President Bush, according to three recent polls, is doing quite well in the Golden State.

A Public Policy Poll shows he splits 45% to 45% against a generic Democratic candidate. A specific poll quoted in the Washington Times showed the President leading Howard Dean with 51% of the vote. The well-respected Field Poll has reported that President Bush sports small leads over all his Democratic competitors.

So there you have it. As always, feel free to let me know of data I missed. You can find the California data at the appropriate sites...I have to run...

[republicanwizard]

Enjoy!

[Publius]

In Search of the Elusive Swing Voter

[GulliverSwift]

This is all assuming that Howard Spleen is the nominee.

[Ciexyz]

Good news!

[republicanwizard]

I don't see how it matters...

[oceanview]

Bush has no chance of winning NY (and I doubt NJ). Others can speak about states they have first hand experience with.

[Ingtar]

Illinois will still go massively Democrat... as will California. These are two places where election law seem to favor cheating on the Democratic side.

[GulliverSwift]

Ed Koch says he'll vote for Bush.

[mewzilla]

Bush has no chance of winning NY (and I doubt NJ). Others can speak about states they have first hand experience with.

Oh, I don't know :) If Hillie's in trouble, and she is, there may be hope yet.

[republicanwizard]

Well, considering that I live near the intersection of both states, in the Keystone State, I feel confident President Bush will win both.

[republicanwizard]

I know. Ronald Reagan could win any state, and yet the much better politician, George W. Bush, can't?

[oceanview]

Hillary is only in trouble against rudy or pataki, she would win against everyone else. if the same election were held today, hillary vs lazio, she would win. even after 9/11, because we don't have any republicans with the nuts to bluntly say that the clintons stewardship of the US military and intel capabilites led directly to 9/11, most NYers are too dumb themselves to make the connection.

[oceanview]

you live in PA? yes, I think Bush could win PA, although Rendell was elected. But NY? no way.

[republicanwizard]

Um, President Bush is mighty popular on Long Island.

[mewzilla]

FWIW, I know lots of Dems voting for Bush. NYS's county map is very revealing. If Upstate got off its fanny and voted, the Dems would be toast. And folks in this state haven't forgotten 9-11. I live Upstate, and lots of people know friends and/or family of victims, or people who responded and their familes and/or friends. I still think Bush will win NYS. I really do :)

[COEXERJ145]

As long as Daley runs Chicago, IL will always go Rat. It is impossible to counter the millions of votes that pour out of the cemeteries.

[GulliverSwift]

Well, the media will try to promote whoever the nominee turns out to be, but Dean will shoot his mouth off like an idiot again and again, which will make it harder for the media to be effective. With some of the other candidates, if they were to win, they would have liberal media help, but they wouldn't shoot their mouths off with inane remarks.

[Alberta's Child]

Out of all the states Bush lost in 2000, I think his chances of winning are greatest in the following (in order):

1. New Mexico
2. Minnesota
3. Wisconsin
4. Iowa
5. Delaware

Out of all the states Bush won in 2000, I think his chances of losing are greatest in the following:

1. West Virginia
2. New Hampshire
3. Arkansas
4. North Carolina

The odds of Bush losing more than two of the four in the second list seem pretty remote at this point, while he probably has a pretty good chance of winning three of the five in the first list.

[My2Cents]

The most recent poll shows Bush ahead against specific Democratic opponents. 61% of voters in the recall voted for Republican candidates. With the economy swinging back into health, and the tax cuts being the cornerstone of the recovery, plus the fact that most Californias know that the it's the Democrats who have driven the state into the ground, I think California is winnable.

[republicanwizard]

Add Pennsylvania to your list. Because I said so.