Poll: Support rising for Bush in California

San Jose Mercury News ^ | Jan. 14, 2004 | Jim Puzzanghera

[Holly_P]

WASHINGTON - The capture of Saddam Hussein and the improving economy have boosted President Bush's popularity in California, particularly among Democrats and independents, with a slim majority now approving of his performance, according to a Field Poll released today.

The numbers offer Republicans hope that Bush can compete strongly for California's trove of electoral votes, draining Democratic time and resources from other key states during the fall campaign. A Republican presidential candidate has not won California since 1988, and Bush lost the state by more than 1.2 million votes in 2000.

[Holly_P]

I smell a 49 state electoral victory!

[finnman69]

He's looking good in NY also.

[mrs tiggywinkle]

**I smell a 49 state electoral victory! **

That'd be so cool. :o)

[finnman69]

A new poll from the Chicago Tribune and WGN finds that while 48 percent of Illinois voters do not want to see President Bush re-elected this year, he would beat former Vermont governor Howard Dean in a head-to-head matchup, 46 percent to 40 percent.

[Ciexyz]

Go President Bush!

[jdege]

Bah.

We've done 49-state victories before.

I'm looking for a 50-state victory, and hoping for one of the D.C. electors to throw away a vote in protest.

535 to 2 sounds about right...

[Holly_P]

I live in Illinois and will be a first time voter in Nov. but I'm afraid that we are going to need a lot more support to counteract the "cemetery" vote in Chicago.

[mrs tiggywinkle]

**I'm looking for a 50-state victory, and hoping for one of the D.C. electors to throw away a vote in protest. 535 to 2 sounds about right... **

Then that'd be even cool-er. :oD

[DCPatriot]

The capture of Saddam Hussein ...boosted President Bush's popularity in California..."

Remember. It took Bush LESS time to topple Saddam than it took Janet Reno to topple the Branch Dividians in Waco.

[finnman69]

General Election

At this point in the race, none of the major Democratic candidates does better in a hypothetical match-up with Bush than any of the others. Bush leads each of four Democrats by essentially the same 12- to 15-percentage-point margin.

If [Democratic candidate named] were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? As of today, do you lean more toward --


Bush Democrat NEITHER (vol.) OTHER (vol.)No opinion

Likely Voters

Bush vs. Dean
56 41 1 * 2

Bush vs. Clark
56 42 1 * 1

Bush vs. Gephardt
55 42 2 -- 1

Bush vs. Kerry
55 43 1 * 1

* Less than 0.5%

Volunteered response (vol.)


It is clearly too early to use these numbers as predictions of the November election, though they do provide insights as to the current electoral strength of the candidates.

Bush is in a good position at this time. With the capture of Saddam Hussein, and improvements in the economy, his job approval rating -- currently at 59% -- and his electoral strength against possible Democratic candidates have improved.

Although the results presented here are for "likely" voters, the poll shows little difference between the preferences of likely voters (representing about half the adult population) and the preferences of the larger population of "registered" voters.

Bush's advantage over Dean among registered voters has been as low as 3 percentage points (last September), and as high as 23 points (in mid-December).
Shortly after Clark announced his candidacy, he enjoyed a 3-point margin among registered voters over Bush (in a Sept. 19-21 poll), but in mid-December, Bush's advantage was 16 points.

While some political observers, as well as Democratic candidates, have suggested that Dean is less electable than other Democrats, the poll provides no corroborating evidence. At this point of the campaign, each of the major candidates appears about as strong as the other.
Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 9-11, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

[spokeshave]

Just wait till the latest 401K results drop in letter boxes ....see Dubbya jump....see Dashle saddened

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[jmaroneps37]

I've said this before but: By May, we will realize that we are in the middle of the strangest presidential cycle in history. Except in NY DC and LA there will be a sharp drop in the amount of talk in the ratmedia about the presidential race. It will be way too painful for them to cover. We will instead, see a sharp focus on a handful of senate races that will determine how many more years the rats will be out of power in the senate. If they get swept in the South, lose dashhole's seat and even boxer shorts and the commie in tennis shoes go down, the senate rats could be out of power in the senate for another 12 years. The congress is at least twice as far away far the evil donkey.

[AuH2ORepublican]

*PING!*

This Field Poll in California is consistent with the GOP poll released yesterday. It looks like the state may be in play for President Bush, which spells disaster for the Democrats (who can't afford not to be able to take CA for granted).

[gimmealewinsky]

Between this and the Illinois news this is very good indeed. If the nominee is doofus-dean a sweep could well be in order.
On the other hand... GHWB was in very much the same situation in '92 in January. I remember it well as I was teaching Political Science at the time and we devoted alot of conversation to the topic. No way did I think one of the 7 dwarfs at the time could win and look what we ended up with.
Caution, persistence and hard work. That'll reelect GWB!

[Holly_P]

(who can't afford not to be able to take CA for granted) Now they will have to spend spend spend in California and they weren't planning on having to. Florida is another one where they will go broke trying to buy the state and which they are going to lose anyway.

[deport]

A long time till Nov. 2 but if President Bush even forces CA into play then that takes effort and resources out of some other states...... If the economy doesn't tank completely then I don't see the country swapping a CinC for one of the Democrats at this stage....

[deport]

No way did I think one of the 7 dwarfs at the time could win and look what we ended up with.

---

Different candidate, same last name but the approach to addressing a task is totally different. If anything he learned something from his dad's defeat... Don't look for him to take anything for granted.......

[DeathfromBelow]

Just got mine, 25.41% return last year, still doesn't make up for the 60% loss suffered as Clintoon left office.

[Salvation]

**Poll: Support rising for Bush in California**

This would be a dream come true! Throw out Boxer for starters!