KCCI Iowa TV Poll: Dean 29, Dick 25, Kerry 18

www.theiowachannel.com ^

[Paul8148]

DES MOINES, Iowa -- The results of an exclusive NewsChannel 8 poll show Howard Dean remains at the top of the heap among Democratic candidates.

Out of 600 Iowans surveyed this week, the former Vermont governor has support from 29 percent of Democratic caucus voters. That's 3 percent higher than

[Paul8148]

The good news is Dean is leading. Bad is Edwards is at only 8%. If he cannot get 15% in most place but bring out 10 or 11 then they will like go to Gerphart.

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[Pubbie]

KCCI Poll: Dean Still On Top In Iowa
Howard Dean In 1st Place with 29 Percent

POSTED: 1:51 PM CST January 8, 2004
UPDATED: 4:47 PM CST January 8, 2004

DES MOINES, Iowa -- The results of an exclusive NewsChannel 8 poll show Howard Dean remains at the top of the heap among Democratic candidates.

Out of 600 Iowans surveyed this week, the former Vermont governor has support from 29 percent of Democratic caucus voters. That's 3 percent higher than KCCI's poll in October.

When NewsChannel 8 spoke with Dean, he took the results in stride.

"Polls don't mean anything in Iowa. It's who gets the voters to the caucuses. So, I think the poll is just wonderful, better to be ahead than not, but the truth is, on Jan. 19, that's when the polls really count," Dean said.

Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt is in second place with 25 percent, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry came in third with 18 percent. Fourth place goes to John Edwards with 8 percent.

Despite national excitement for Gen. Wesley Clark, most Iowans still aren't becoming supporters. Dennis Kucinich and Joe Lieberman both have 2 percent support. Carol Mosely Braun and Al Sharpton didn't get enough support to register.

How Was The Poll Conducted?
The Research 2000 Iowa Poll was conducted from Jan. 5 through Jan. 7, 2004.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the true figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

There was an oversampling conducted among Democratic caucus voters. The margin for error is plus or minus 5%.

Who Was Polled?
A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Researchers contacted 282 men, which is 47 percent of those polled, and 318 women, or 53 percent of those polled. The researchers also balanced the sample based on which political party those surveyed identify with. Some 176 or 29 percent of those surveyed were Democrats, while 191 or 32 percent were Republicans and 233 or 39 percent were independents.

---

QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Richard Gephardt, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?


Bush Gephardt Undecided

All 48% 42% 10%



QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between John Kerry, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?


Bush Kerry Undecided

All 49% 42% 9%



QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Joe Lieberman, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?


Bush Lieberman Undecided

All 49% 39% 12%



QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Howard Dean, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?


Bush Dean Undecided

All 50% 42% 8%



QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Wesley Clark, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?


Bush Clark Undecided

All 50% 39% 11%



QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between John Edwards, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?


Bush Edwards Undecided

All 51% 40% 9%

---

DEMOCRATIC SECTION ONLY (404 Democratic Caucus Voters)

A. The first name is ________. Do you recognize that name?
B. (IF YES) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______?



Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion

Joe Lieberman 50% 44% 6%

Richard Gephardt 68% 30% 2%

John Kerry 69% 27% 4%

Al Sharpton 19% 61% 30%

John Edwards 56% 29% 15%

Howard Dean 74% 22% 4%

Carol Mosely Braun 15% 22% 63%

Dennis Kucinich 27% 20% 53%

Wesley Clark 38% 30% 32%


COMPARE: KCCI Poll Taken In October 2003



QUESTION: If you were voting today for the Democratic nominee for President, which of the following candidates would you vote for? (NAMES ROTATED):


All Men Women

Howard Dean 29% 32% 26%

Richard Gephardt 25% 29% 21%

John Kerry 18% 15% 21%

Joe Lieberman 2% 3% 1%

John Edwards 8% 6% 10%

Wesley Clark 3% 4% 2%

Dennis Kucinich 2% 1% 3%

Carol Mosely Braun - - -

Al Sharpton - - -

Undecided (not read) 13% 10% 16%

COMPARE: KCCI Poll Taken In October 2003




Previous Stories:
October 31, 2003: KCCI Poll: Bush's Approval Rating Slipping
August 28, 2003: KCCI Poll: Dean Gains Support
June 23, 2003: KCCI Poll: Bush's Approval, Democratic Nomination

Copyright 2004 by TheIowaChannel.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed

[Paul8148]

I wish they ask want their second choice would be if they guy would not get 15%.

[alloysteel]

Then Clark is not even on the scope at the moment. Hard to build momentum from a standstill in only about ten days' time.

[Paul8148]

He is by passing Iowa.

[deport]

Then Clark is not even on the scope at the moment. Hard to build momentum from a standstill in only about ten days' time.

---

He and I think Lieberman are bypassing Iowa for greener pastures to the East.......

[Paul8148]

My guess is with Edwards not likely to get 15 % and the Unions help I think Dick will pull it out maybe 38 Dick, 32 Dean, 25 Kerry, the rest 5%. The good news is it he will stay in and hurt clark in Penn and Mich he would like pick up the blue coller voters more than Dean if it came down to a two man race.

[Timesink]

I think Gephardt stands an excellent chance of winning Iowa. If he does, boy is the rest of the RAT primary season going to be fun to watch!

[Paul8148]

I think South Carolina will be fun. If Dick wins he, Clark, Dean, and Al will all have a shot to win.

[Timesink]

Is 15% a magic number of some sort in Iowa regarding allocation of delegates?

[Timesink]

I think South Carolina will be fun. If Dick wins he, Clark, Dean, and Al will all have a shot to win.

Oh, can you just imagine Gephardt winning Iowa, Dean winning NH and Sharpton winning SC? I'd be in heaven!

[Paul8148]

It is the rule. If you go to vote in the caucs (SP?) and if you first choice does not have 15% then you will have to vote for one that does have 15%.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

I'm trying to figure out why The Club for Growth is running an anti-Dean ad now. It's a good ad but why wouldn't they hold their fire until after the Dumbocrats choose their nominee.

The fact is one of these idiots will be the nominee, one is as bad as the other.

[Timesink]

It is the rule. If you go to vote in the caucs (SP?) and if you first choice does not have 15% then you will have to vote for one that does have 15%.

Excellent. Sounds like very good news for Gephardt.

Not that I want Gephardt to win the nomination; I just want Dean to have to spend lots of cash, time and energy to win it, and lose some of his golden reputation in the process, as well as fracturing the RAT party base.

[Paul8148]

Hey Did anyone back there on the east coastes watch NBC News Tonight let? If so what was the Dean Tapes about?

[WOSG]

Facinating ... We could end up with a Dick/ Clark ticket,
or a John / Dean ticket, or a ...

[WOSG]

It's a good ploy ... cutting Dean's lead turns this back into a horserace ... Clark is now in 2nd in NH, meaning he may have mo for the Southern states that Howeird Dean may have trouble in...

Dean needed a KO after Iowa and NH, if he doesnt get it, he may not get all the delegates in the other primary states.

Club for Growth is doing yoeman's work in keeping the Dem field and primary wide open.

[WOSG]

Another point: Club for Growth attacked Dean for being a taxhiker and now Dean is considering pushing for a middle class tax cut. It's cool when you actually can see the candidates repond to pressure!!

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

This is the only advantage of spending the money now that I can see. Club for Growth is going to have to settle for one of these jerks and it might as well be Dean. Beat up on him after he gets the nomination. Save the money.