[fourhorsemen]

Very interesting appraisel of the current situation of Al Qaeda.

[Support Free Republic]

Here we go again folks... why not donate now and help get this fundraiser over with!

[U S Army EOD]

How do you say in Arabic, "Gee folks, things just ain't working out like we thought they would".

[Shermy]

Big picture bump.

[MonroeDNA]

Man, when I saw "doom and gloom," I thought of certain freepers.

My bad!

[CWOJackson]

Last month the level of attacks against the Royal Family in Saudi Arabia escalated sharply and suddenly. I seriously thought civil war had some there finally after all those years of the House of Saud walking a fine line between the fundamentalists and the majority of Saudis.

That seemed to die down very quickly...the Saudis can act quickly and brutality when pressed. I'm wondering just how much damage Al Qaeda suffered in Saudi Arabia.

[expatpat]

Second, it might -- in al Qaeda's mind -- convince the American public that the price of fighting al Qaeda is too high.

These people are stupid -- they need to realize that another attack will only make our resolve stronger, and our vengeance more bloody. If they really want the US public to quit fighting them, they need to quit attacking and threatening us. Then, after a while, the US public will lose interest....

[InterceptPoint]

There is a risk, of course. The Islamic masses might well take the same course that followed Sept. 11: vigorous conversation coupled with inaction, and the American public might want blood instead of withdrawal.

And blood they would get. If al Queda manages to pull off a "Trans 911" attack on the United States the gloves would come off. Both Syria and Iran would be well advised to prepare for war and the manhunt for bin Laden would be intense and would honor no national boundries.

[Keith]

Outstanding analysis...and I think spot on...we must be vigilant as their need for a big splash coincides with our election cycle...

[KingNo155]

The only thing bin laden is going to do is get more muslims killed!

[McGavin999]

The Islamic masses might well take the same course that followed Sept. 11: vigorous conversation coupled with inaction, and the American public might want blood instead of withdrawal.

Might want blood? There's no might about it. The gloves would come completely off.

No, I think Al Qaeda will strike where it thinks there will be no retaliation. I think they will strike france.

[Billthedrill]

The Islamic masses might well take the same course that followed Sept. 11: vigorous conversation coupled with inaction, and the American public might want blood instead of withdrawal.

I can absolutely guarantee the latter. And that would inevitably result in this:

Al Qaeda knows that the culminating battle of the war will be waged in northwestern Pakistan when U.S. forces go after Osama bin Laden and his command cells.

...as I think it will. Al-Qaeda overplayed its hand in the Saudi and the Pakistan bombings, the former to tell their erstwhile paymasters that the deal had changed and the gloves were off, the latter to forestall American intervention in northwestern Pakistan. Neither succeeded, and in fact served to hasten that intervention rather than forestall it. If Special Forces operations haven't already commenced there they will very soon.

On a peripheral but no less important note, I do think that the Iranians are playing for control of the nascent Iraq government. They should be careful what they wish for. The Shi'ites in Iraq are co-religionists, to be sure, but they are also not necessarily pro-Persian, and there are significant Iranian anti-government guerrilla forces in Iraq at the moment as well. The Iranian mullahs are playing for control of little brother to the west; I wonder if they've considered that little brother has his own game and might just be playing for control...of them.

[Skywarner]

Excellent analysis by Stratfor.

[Tauzero]

cool piece

[T. Jefferson]

The release of a new tape by Osama bin Laden is always an important event. The most recent one is particularly important because of the tone it takes.

The echoes in the cave are decidedly deadened, and the impersonator clearly doesn't have the cadence or resonance in his command. Give us strength Allah, the virgins in the sky have been deflowered...and me thinks Howie the Midget Dean wears diapers and will lose 48 states..

[lainde]

I agree...Very interesting! BTTT

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Bin Laden concedes that Sept. 11 failed to achieve al Qaeda's strategic goals. In fact, events since then have moved in just the opposite direction.

Bin Laden misread the Americans - as if we'd cow and succumb. Well that would have happened in the Clinton administration and under Howard Dean.

[GOPJ]

Arabs who can't jump on the right bandwagon don't survive. When Arabs perceive we're winning, it'll be over.

Osama miscalculated the American response -- his best game plan is mystic. If he takes us on again, local Arab leaders will off him before we get the chance. They're getting tired of paying the piper for Osams's dances.

Bin Laden concedes that Sept. 11 failed to achieve al Qaeda's strategic goals. In fact, events since then have moved in just the opposite direction. The problem was the lack of political preparation in the Islamic world. The weakness among Arab regimes generally and Saudi Arabia particularly meant that the U.S. response -- rather than triggering massive anti-American resistance -- resulted in broad-based collaboration.

[Beck_isright]

If anyone, has studied or spent any time in this region, you must realize their ultimate goal:

The re-establishment of the great Arab empire of the 8th-12th centuries.

Attacking the U.S. is viewed as an extension of an attack on the House of Saud. AQ knows that. Thus why the Eurocowards have thus far been immune. Israel is also irrelevant. A study of the Koran and Islamic history indicates that the liberation of Mecca and Medinah are much more critical to the radical Arab movements. This is a civil war waiting to happen and the original tribes outside of the House of Saud have chosen sides. It is only a matter of time before the infighting begins. Fill your tank up now and every week until then....

[Cap Huff]

Bump.