The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
By Jeff Head, January 2004

In the 1990's the Poeple's Republic of China embarked on an unprecedented military buildup to modernize their aremd forces, increase their qualitative functioning and put them in a position to be able to better carry out the geo-olitical dictates of the Red Chinese government. This necessarily includes being able to develop themselves to a point that they could credibly confront the other armed forces in the region who may stand in the way of those geo-political directives, in particularly the United States.

The buildup has covered the spectrum of military forces, from strategic rocket forces (ICBM's), tactical rocket forces (SRBM's), ground forces, air forces and naval forces. It is being accomplished with monies that would otherwise have bankrupted the earlier marxist and maoist market economies, and while maintianing their communistic/marxistis political heiarchy. Capitalizing on the low cost labor force that they have opened up to the western world, the Red Chinese are obtaining the influx of capital necessary to maintian their military buildup. Thye are also making adept application of Sun Tsu philosophy (where makes clear that all warfare is deception) to amass staggering western trade defficits (meaning the west is on the deficit end) which are reaping them the tremendous capital and technological capabilities to continue and to achieve their military goals.

In conjucntion with the capital gains, through research and development, blackmail, importation of dual use technologies, bribery and out and out espionage, the Red Chinese have also markedly increased their technological and qualitative capabilities many fold over the last several years. This has allowed them to rise from a point in the early to mid 1990's where they were 25-30 years behind US technology, to a point today (less than fifteen years later) where their newer systems are challenging American capabilities in some areas, and posing a credible threat in others.

While not an exhaustive study, the focus of this article is to examine and present the recent developments in the Chinese Navy (PLAN) which are putting them into a position to credibly challenge the United States Navy in the region.

The Chinese Navy has historically been without any sea-based naval air component. Like the Soviets before them, they have historically relied heavily on land based naval strike aircraft to attack and defeat opposing at-sea naval forces in the region. They have had no aircraft carriers. However, like the Soviets before them, the Chinese have come to see the desirability and necessity of developing sea-based naval air forces if they plan to project power very far from their own shores. In recognition of this, over the last ten years, they have purchased and studied at least three different carrier designs. These ships have been acquired through various strategmns including purchasing them for scrap and then bringing them to Chinese naval yards for study and purchasing them for supposed economic reasons, like making a floating casino out of a former Russian carrier, and then again bringing them to China for study. The two carriers bought for scrap are not suitable for refitting and making operational, but they would have provided Chinese shipbuilders and designers with invaluable knowledge so they can augment their own future naval plans.

The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable. It was towed to the Dalian Chinese naval yards where it is currently being studied for anything but a floating Casino. Given the Chinese capital capabilities, it could easily be refitted and made sea worthy (it was towed at sea from the Black Sea to China) or it could provide the technical basis for a wholly indigenous Chinese carrier.

The Vayrag Entering Chinese waters


The Vayrag birtrhed at Chinese naval shipyards

The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equiped it would approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design) to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credable threat in the China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramitically.

Red Chinese produced SU-27 Aircraft (J11)


The Red Chinese J-10

But do the Chinese intend to do this?

That question can be answered by determining if the Chinese are developing and fielding the necessary escort and support vessels and infrastructure to protect and augment any carrier they develop.

The answer to that questions is an umittigated, yes!

The Chinese have embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented development and ship building program of modern destroyers and frigates that would allow for the creation of powerful carrier battle groups similar to those fielded by the U.S. Navy once they produce a carrier. These include multi-role combat vessels, area air-defense vessels (similar to American Aegis vessels) and support vessels. They have also purchased very capable, modern large surface combatants from the Russians.

The Sovermenny class destroyers were produced by the Soviets in the late 1980's to specifcally threaten U.S. carriers. The Chinese have purchased four of these vessels and refitted and renamed them the Hangzhou class. The Russians modernized the design throughout the 1990's before their sale to the Chinese and they are an example of the type of equipment the Chinese are purchasing with their new found wealth and technology (mostly ammassed from trade with the United States and other western countries). These ships are very capable, mulit-purpose guided missile destroyer and carry the Sunburn and Yahkont surface to surface missiles which were specifically designed by the Russians to attack U.S. super-carriers and defeat the Aegis air defense system. These vessels aslo have a credible medium-ranged anti-air defense system suitable for their own protection, or close in protection of other vessels.

A former Sovremmenny class now saling as the PLAN Hangzhou

To augment the multi-role capabilities of the Hangzhou class, the Chinese have done a very thorough job of development themselves, producing their own modern designs. This started in the 1990's with modernization of the numerous, but older, Luda class of destroyers. It then proceeded to the development of the newer Luhu class desroyers in the mid-1990's and the evolution of that class into the newer and more capable Luhai class by the late 1990's. It is now finally producing their new Typer 52B, Guangzhou class of vessels. With a displacemnt approaching 7,000+ tons and modern anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine weapons systems and using proven Russian Top Dome and other acquisition and targeting sensors, this design represents a modern Chinese version of the Russian Svremmenny and indicates the Chinese commitment to being self-sufficient in their naval development and power projection capabilities. This design is a very capable design and cannot be taken lightly by U.S. war planners. Currently the Chinese have launched two of these newer vessels and are projected to build up to eight of them.

The new PLAN 168 Guanghou destroyer


The second Guanghou destroyer being built

In addition, the Chinese are developing a new, stealthy Type 054 class frigate that will be capable in the anti-air, anti-surface and anti-submarine roles. Similar to the role of the earlier U.S. Perry class frigates, but much newer, more stealthy and an apparent attempt to beat the Americans to the Litoral Combat Ship role, these new frigates are already being built and launched in Chinese shipyards.

The new Type 54 PLAN Frigate

In order to provide the area air coverage necessary to protect a carrier in the modern war-at-sea environment, the Chinese have also embarked on the very ambitious task of developing, building, and launching modern area air-defense destroyers. These ships are similar in design and function to the American AEGIS Burke destroyers and are used to protect large task forces, particularly carrier battle groups from mass air assault by aircraft or missiles.

Captializing on joint exercises and partnership programs with the United States Navy in the 1990's. where Red Chinese officers were actually allowed onboard American Aegis ships to observe their operations, and relying on technology that has been pilfered through dual technology methods, espionage and the rising capabilities of Chinese researchers themselves (who are now very well funded), the Chinese are now building a new class of destroyers, the Type 52C, Lanzhou guided missile destroyers. These vessels will employ Phased Array radar acquisition and targeting systems similar to Aegis and their own long-range, vertical launch missiles. These vessels are meant to be the equivalent of the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burk class destroyers. Two are currently being built simultaneously and it is expected that the Chinese will build at least two more, while developing an even larger and more capable class of vessels which may be intended to rival the vaunted American Ticonderoga class Aegis cruisers.

Two new Type 52C, Lanzhou AEGIS like destroyers under construction

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[risk]

The picture below is from varyagworld.com , or "The Mystery of the Hapless Varyag." Click the picture for more images of the massive Russian carrier, including stupendous satellite pics!

[Jeff Head]

Thank you so much for the kind words and the mention of my Dad. He was a great christian father, husband, friend and patriot and I am determined to keep faith with him.

[Jeff Head]

Hope you were able to get The Dragon's Fury Series.

I look forward to your comments regarding the various volumes as you get a chance to read them. They were written specifically to present a warning about many issues, and to do so hopefully wrapped in an exciting and compelling read.

[risk]

So guess where generation X, Y, and XL can look for guidance? It's your turn to be the mentor.

[risk]

just a reminder everyone: let's not forget our other nuclear neighbors while the mideast is hot

[Polybius]

The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equiped it would approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design) to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside of America's super-carriers.

If there were no other vessels in existence, my Catalina 27 sailboat could be described as "the largest vessel in the world outside of America's super-carriers".

[Atlantic Friend]

A fellow Freeper is planing to take a short vacation in Europe, and thus he'll bring me your books. I guess I'll devour them hungrily, for I've been suffering from a low-thrillers literary diet these last months ! Plus, the recent Tom Clancy books have somewhat disappointed me. The last one I really enjoyed was Rainbow Six, and it's been a while.

Don't worry, I'll let you know my impressions - but since I really enjoyed the excerpts, I guess it's a sure winner.

[Jeff Head]

Yes...but your Catalina 27 would not have ...

a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft

[Jeff Head]

Exactly! ...and we'd best have the gumption, the commitment and the desire to be about it.

We have raised 4 children to adulthood...and our youngest is within four years of being there. You can believe that each of them knows the basic underlying foundational principles about this country and how to recognize those individuals, institutions and their desires, aims and philosophies that are undermining and destroying that foundation.

We are now working on a crop of grandkids!

Best Fregards.

[Jeff Head]

Thanks. I know you will not be disappointed.

The Dragon's Fury Series is not your, "Amereica can do anything and win everything", kind of series. It takes into account the requirement that the moral foundational principles must be strongly in place in order for a free people to overcome extreme hardship. It also takes into account what ruthless, dedicated enemies are capable of when we let our moral guard down.

It describes events as serious as, or even more serious than the alliances and commitments the free world faced in World War II...but in a modern environment where the threats and consequences are even more grave. It also describes how a people can recover their moral compass during such hardships.

...and all of that in the midst of what is meant to be a compelling and engaging, action packed war story.

Hope you enjoy it.

[Atlantic Friend]

I'm sure I will. The problem with ten techno-thrillers of the mid-80s was their growing emphasis on technology, that hid the fact that, ultimately and regardless of the nice gadgets fielded, conflict is a human thing that calls for the best - and sometimes for the worst - part of our soul.

I have always longed for a thriller as action-packed as Tom Clancy's or Larry Bond's books, but whose hero is a normal guy (a bit like John Preston in Frederick Forsyth's "Fourth Protocol"). I found the excerpts of Dragon's Fury very promising in this way...

[Jeff Head]

I stopped reading Clancy some time ago...when his language and other anomalies became too much for me. Particulary the idea that we were completely unassailable.

...it also took him way too long to get to the meat of the story for my tastes, sometimes hundreds of pages.

I tried again with the "Bear and the Dragon", but found his too resolution to the issues in Siberia with Red China much too clean and much too quick.

I really liked his earlier "Red Storm Rising" and "The Hunt for Red October".

[Atlantic Friend]

I concur. "Red Storm Rising" really got my attention, as did "Patriot Games" and "The sum of all fears". Then, things began to go downhill, IMHO, even if I thought he had regained some ground with "Rainbow 6", and if I appreciated the description of rebuilding institutions in "Executive orders"
. But the situation depicted in "The Bear and the Dragon" was just too too. Poor, hapless Russians who have to fight with WWII-era military gear ?

Plus, I like subplots to be fully exploited.

[Polybius]

Yes...but your Catalina 27 would not have ... ..... a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft

Look at the photo of the Vayrag:

"Ski Jump" configuration. No angle deck.

What that means is that it can only accomodate VTOL jets and helicopters.

According to the On Dec. 29, 1995, the Moscow-based Segodnya newspaper:

" Varyag could deploy up to 24 fighters with vertical landing/takeoff [VTOL], such as SU-25 UTG, SU-27 K, MiG-29L, and up to 42 naval combat helicopters, such as KA-29 and KA-31."

Missing from the mix are state-of-the art air superiority fightes and the over-the-horizon radar aircraft such as the Hawkeye that allow U.S. carriers to identify and eliminate threats hundreds of miles from the carrier group.

E-2C Hawkeye

What that means is that such a carrier goes into battle like a blind man taking a knife to a gun fight.

The Brits had such "Gary Hart carriers" during the Falklands War and the British carriers found it beyond their capabilities to prevent ancient, Argentine A-4 Skyhawks (an aircraft that began operational service in 1956) from dropping "dumb" (unguided) bombs and damaging or sinking British ships that included HMS Glasgow, HMS Argonaut, HMS Ardent, HMS Antelope, RFA Sir Bedivere and RFA Sir Galahad.

When the enemy is succesfully scoring sinkings on your fleet with "dumb" bombs that are powered by good ole gravity, that means that you have allowed the enemy to be on your fleet like a pitbull on a pork chop.

During the Falklands War, I was stationed aboard a U.S. Navy CGN whose mission it was to provide missile defense for carrier battle groups. The C.O. wanted to use the unfolding Falklands War as a Ward Room discussion topic for the ship's officers so that we could war game an actual carrier warfare battle as it unfolded. However, the capabilities of the British VTOL carriers were so antiquated in comparison to a modern U.S. carrier battle group that our C.O. soon realized that we might as well have been war gaming the Battle of Trafalgar.

[Jeff Head]

I am very familiar with US naval resources and the operations of our carrier battel groups. There is no doubt that in an open sea, strike at sea scenario, that a carrier such as this would not stand against any battle group of ours.

That being said, a modern Chinese carrier group in the China Sea is a different matter. When they are in range of massive land based air in support of their operations they become a tougher nut to crack. Particularly if the augment said groups with the modern surface and air warfare escorts they are building, along with a sub force that could be a potent threat in such waters.

Do not let the ski jump configuration lead you to believe that only VTOL operations are possible. For over a decade the Soviets have operated the older, sister ship to this very carrier, utilizing potent SU-27 aircraft. They are capable of STOL operations. And it does have an angled deck. That pic does not show it well. Here is a better view of the Russian ship, the Admiral Kuznetzov, which shows its angled deck configuration witht he ski jump...

You can see five SU-27's, wings folded, along and to the aft of the Island.

What it means of course is that the efficiency of operations is severally constrained as compared to our own. In addition, their expertise and training is way behind our decades of experience.

But, like I said, in the confines of those waters close to their mainland bases, it would significantly increase the threat.

[El Gato]

What that means is that it can only accomodate VTOL jets and helicopters.

Well, no, I certainly wouldn't call the Su-27K a "VTOL", STOL yes, VTOL, no. It's a very capable bird, and can be equiped with a radar superior to that of anything short of that of an F-22. (A full active electronically steerable array)

[Jeff Head]

FYI