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The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

Posted on 01/06/2004 9:05:14 AM PST by Jeff Head

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
By Jeff Head, January 2004

In the 1990's the Poeple's Republic of China embarked on an unprecedented military buildup to modernize their aremd forces, increase their qualitative functioning and put them in a position to be able to better carry out the geo-olitical dictates of the Red Chinese government. This necessarily includes being able to develop themselves to a point that they could credibly confront the other armed forces in the region who may stand in the way of those geo-political directives, in particularly the United States.

The buildup has covered the spectrum of military forces, from strategic rocket forces (ICBM's), tactical rocket forces (SRBM's), ground forces, air forces and naval forces. It is being accomplished with monies that would otherwise have bankrupted the earlier marxist and maoist market economies, and while maintianing their communistic/marxistis political heiarchy. Capitalizing on the low cost labor force that they have opened up to the western world, the Red Chinese are obtaining the influx of capital necessary to maintian their military buildup. Thye are also making adept application of Sun Tsu philosophy (where makes clear that all warfare is deception) to amass staggering western trade defficits (meaning the west is on the deficit end) which are reaping them the tremendous capital and technological capabilities to continue and to achieve their military goals.

In conjucntion with the capital gains, through research and development, blackmail, importation of dual use technologies, bribery and out and out espionage, the Red Chinese have also markedly increased their technological and qualitative capabilities many fold over the last several years. This has allowed them to rise from a point in the early to mid 1990's where they were 25-30 years behind US technology, to a point today (less than fifteen years later) where their newer systems are challenging American capabilities in some areas, and posing a credible threat in others.

While not an exhaustive study, the focus of this article is to examine and present the recent developments in the Chinese Navy (PLAN) which are putting them into a position to credibly challenge the United States Navy in the region.

The Chinese Navy has historically been without any sea-based naval air component. Like the Soviets before them, they have historically relied heavily on land based naval strike aircraft to attack and defeat opposing at-sea naval forces in the region. They have had no aircraft carriers. However, like the Soviets before them, the Chinese have come to see the desirability and necessity of developing sea-based naval air forces if they plan to project power very far from their own shores. In recognition of this, over the last ten years, they have purchased and studied at least three different carrier designs. These ships have been acquired through various strategmns including purchasing them for scrap and then bringing them to Chinese naval yards for study and purchasing them for supposed economic reasons, like making a floating casino out of a former Russian carrier, and then again bringing them to China for study. The two carriers bought for scrap are not suitable for refitting and making operational, but they would have provided Chinese shipbuilders and designers with invaluable knowledge so they can augment their own future naval plans.

The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable. It was towed to the Dalian Chinese naval yards where it is currently being studied for anything but a floating Casino. Given the Chinese capital capabilities, it could easily be refitted and made sea worthy (it was towed at sea from the Black Sea to China) or it could provide the technical basis for a wholly indigenous Chinese carrier.


The Vayrag Entering Chinese waters


The Vayrag birtrhed at Chinese naval shipyards

The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equiped it would approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design) to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credable threat in the China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramitically.


Red Chinese produced SU-27 Aircraft (J11)


The Red Chinese J-10

But do the Chinese intend to do this?

That question can be answered by determining if the Chinese are developing and fielding the necessary escort and support vessels and infrastructure to protect and augment any carrier they develop.

The answer to that questions is an umittigated, yes!

The Chinese have embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented development and ship building program of modern destroyers and frigates that would allow for the creation of powerful carrier battle groups similar to those fielded by the U.S. Navy once they produce a carrier. These include multi-role combat vessels, area air-defense vessels (similar to American Aegis vessels) and support vessels. They have also purchased very capable, modern large surface combatants from the Russians.

The Sovermenny class destroyers were produced by the Soviets in the late 1980's to specifcally threaten U.S. carriers. The Chinese have purchased four of these vessels and refitted and renamed them the Hangzhou class. The Russians modernized the design throughout the 1990's before their sale to the Chinese and they are an example of the type of equipment the Chinese are purchasing with their new found wealth and technology (mostly ammassed from trade with the United States and other western countries). These ships are very capable, mulit-purpose guided missile destroyer and carry the Sunburn and Yahkont surface to surface missiles which were specifically designed by the Russians to attack U.S. super-carriers and defeat the Aegis air defense system. These vessels aslo have a credible medium-ranged anti-air defense system suitable for their own protection, or close in protection of other vessels.


A former Sovremmenny class now saling as the PLAN Hangzhou

To augment the multi-role capabilities of the Hangzhou class, the Chinese have done a very thorough job of development themselves, producing their own modern designs. This started in the 1990's with modernization of the numerous, but older, Luda class of destroyers. It then proceeded to the development of the newer Luhu class desroyers in the mid-1990's and the evolution of that class into the newer and more capable Luhai class by the late 1990's. It is now finally producing their new Typer 52B, Guangzhou class of vessels. With a displacemnt approaching 7,000+ tons and modern anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine weapons systems and using proven Russian Top Dome and other acquisition and targeting sensors, this design represents a modern Chinese version of the Russian Svremmenny and indicates the Chinese commitment to being self-sufficient in their naval development and power projection capabilities. This design is a very capable design and cannot be taken lightly by U.S. war planners. Currently the Chinese have launched two of these newer vessels and are projected to build up to eight of them.


The new PLAN 168 Guanghou destroyer


The second Guanghou destroyer being built

In addition, the Chinese are developing a new, stealthy Type 054 class frigate that will be capable in the anti-air, anti-surface and anti-submarine roles. Similar to the role of the earlier U.S. Perry class frigates, but much newer, more stealthy and an apparent attempt to beat the Americans to the Litoral Combat Ship role, these new frigates are already being built and launched in Chinese shipyards.


The new Type 54 PLAN Frigate

In order to provide the area air coverage necessary to protect a carrier in the modern war-at-sea environment, the Chinese have also embarked on the very ambitious task of developing, building, and launching modern area air-defense destroyers. These ships are similar in design and function to the American AEGIS Burke destroyers and are used to protect large task forces, particularly carrier battle groups from mass air assault by aircraft or missiles.

Captializing on joint exercises and partnership programs with the United States Navy in the 1990's. where Red Chinese officers were actually allowed onboard American Aegis ships to observe their operations, and relying on technology that has been pilfered through dual technology methods, espionage and the rising capabilities of Chinese researchers themselves (who are now very well funded), the Chinese are now building a new class of destroyers, the Type 52C, Lanzhou guided missile destroyers. These vessels will employ Phased Array radar acquisition and targeting systems similar to Aegis and their own long-range, vertical launch missiles. These vessels are meant to be the equivalent of the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burk class destroyers. Two are currently being built simultaneously and it is expected that the Chinese will build at least two more, while developing an even larger and more capable class of vessels which may be intended to rival the vaunted American Ticonderoga class Aegis cruisers.


Two new Type 52C, Lanzhou AEGIS like destroyers under construction

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TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Free Republic; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: armsbuildup; asia; authorjeffhead; china; chinesemilitary; jeffhead; miltech; plan; powerprojection; redchinathreat; usnavy; westernpacific
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To: Jeff Head
bump
141 posted on 01/10/2004 10:19:40 AM PST by VOA
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To: 11B3
bump
142 posted on 01/10/2004 10:22:18 AM PST by VOA
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To: John H K
As my brother who is a strike eagle pilot says," They have 10 fighters to our one and I can kill 8 from miles away. That leaves 2 that I have to dogfight and even if we are the best, eventually the odds begin to get much worse each time we lose one.
143 posted on 01/11/2004 8:59:03 AM PST by liberty or death
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To: Jeff Head
Excellent article ! I didn't know the Chinese had purchased Russian-type carriers. As by the old Chinese curse, the Far East will certainly live some "interesting moments", moments we as Western nations must prepare for.

The (very justified) American emphasis over Middlemost deployment is certainly put to good use by China, who, for the first time since the 11th century is becoming a naval power to be reckoned with. Will this achievement mean a change of political posture from the Chinese leaders, who until now moved their knights across the board in a very cautious and patient manner ?

By the way, I hope I'll be able to get my hands on your books. I used to like Larry Bond and Tom Clancy, but I felt their later books lacked tempo and suspense.

144 posted on 01/13/2004 4:20:25 AM PST by Atlantic Friend (Cursum Perficio)
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To: Atlantic Friend
Thanks.

There is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a vast modernization and upbuild effort of all of their forces, including the PLAN.

Based on the moves they have already made strategically (in the South China Sea, in the Pacific (they are on Tarawa Isalnd)), and in central America (most notably with the Panama Canal), it is clear they are positioning themsleves to extend and project their power. We will ultimately be the ones that have to counter any of that and it wioll be a military, political and an economic game.

Please let me know what you think of the books. I believe you will find them enjoyable. You can read what other ereaders have been saying at any of the Amazon sites, or HERE, at the Reader Review Site on the series main site.

Best Fregards.

145 posted on 01/13/2004 5:29:28 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: LS
"Overestimating an enemy..."

With the fracturalization and lack of assets on the ground, the situation of our Intel, I would be satisfied with CORECTLY ESTIMATING OUR ENIMIES.

146 posted on 01/15/2004 10:18:49 PM PST by endthematrix (To enter my lane you must use your turn signal!)
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To: endthematrix
If we end up in any kind of ground war in China, we've already lost.
147 posted on 01/16/2004 4:46:00 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: John H K
But wont they be slowed down by their demographics and capital formation capabilities relative to the Chinese?
148 posted on 01/16/2004 4:51:12 AM PST by AmericanVictory (Should we be more like them, or they like us?)
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To: ought-six
Not to mention passing on to them our silent sub technology.
149 posted on 01/16/2004 4:52:12 AM PST by AmericanVictory (Should we be more like them, or they like us?)
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To: Support Free Republic
cannon fodder
150 posted on 01/16/2004 4:56:27 AM PST by holdmuhbeer
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To: Travis McGee
We need to study the UK's mistakes in Asia prior to WW-II. There is much to learn from them.

151 posted on 01/22/2004 6:42:38 PM PST by GOP_1900AD (Un-PC even to "Conservatives!" - Right makes right)
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To: Cronos
This is a great idea. It would do much to break the neutrality of ASEAN countries. The reason for their neutrality is, on the one hand, they've been burned before by large allies such as the US and UK failing to protect them. On the other hand, our own non proliferation religion has resulted in a situation where ASEAN is a nuclear free zone; sadly, this has been and will continue to be a PRC goal. I am not saying I want to see countries like Malaysia have their own nukes. But given the DF-15s and DF-21s located just to the north of ASEAN, and given the fact that these are no different than SS-20s, why haven't WE gotten in there with OUR nuclear deterent? Some would say we have a deterent in the form of our ICBMs etc. But I'm telling you there is nothing like having things with short flight times right there. Look at how the Soviets balked on the SS-20s when we put nuke tipped ground launched cruise missiles in Europe and started up the Pershing 2 program. Today, by comparison, ASEAN is at a net disadvantage. Sorry about the long wordy post, this topic really gets my blood boiling.

152 posted on 01/22/2004 6:49:39 PM PST by GOP_1900AD (Un-PC even to "Conservatives!" - Right makes right)
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To: LS
Indeed, the way for them to draw us into a ground war is by invading overland to the south. They are building superhighways in that direction, to be completed within the next couple of years. Sad thing is, the highways are half funded by Thai businessmen who think they are going to get rich from trucking in and out of the PRC. They believe all that PRC rot about peaceful coexistance. What dupes.
153 posted on 01/22/2004 7:05:10 PM PST by GOP_1900AD (Un-PC even to "Conservatives!" - Right makes right)
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To: Jeff Head
I would guess that they will hit Taiwan and nationalize all industry in China at the same time.Am I close?
154 posted on 01/22/2004 7:36:37 PM PST by philetus (Keep doing what you always do and you'll keep getting what you always get)
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To: philetus
They may end up wanting more than Taiwan.
155 posted on 01/22/2004 8:54:59 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
I don't doubt that at all.
156 posted on 01/22/2004 9:51:34 PM PST by philetus (Keep doing what you always do and you'll keep getting what you always get)
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To: belmont_mark; Chronos; swarthyguy; Atlantic Friend; Cincinatus' Wife
bump
157 posted on 01/29/2004 4:09:24 AM PST by risk
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To: risk
Yes, it's truly an excellent article. The last time China had a real navy was in the 12th-13th century, if I recall correctly, when Chinese navigators ran (or sailed) amok in the Pacific and even along the African coast. Then they decided the world had nothing to offer outside of their Empire, and they burned their ships.

China's buying a modern navy, with a lot of emphasis on force projection is certainly not without meaning. They seem to have decided the outside world HAD something to offer, after all.
158 posted on 01/29/2004 4:16:08 AM PST by Atlantic Friend (Cursum Perficio)
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To: Atlantic Friend
Yes, you and patriot Jeff Head are both to be commended for drawing attention to this turn of events. Jeff's father recently died, and I'm sure he would be proud of this effort to keep his countrymen and their allies informed of the looming threat of Chinese militarism and nationalism.
159 posted on 01/29/2004 4:23:34 AM PST by risk
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To: risk
I'll have to get my hands on his books, the excerpts were very promising.
160 posted on 01/29/2004 4:33:18 AM PST by Atlantic Friend (Cursum Perficio)
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