The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
By Jeff Head, January 2004

In the 1990's the Poeple's Republic of China embarked on an unprecedented military buildup to modernize their aremd forces, increase their qualitative functioning and put them in a position to be able to better carry out the geo-olitical dictates of the Red Chinese government. This necessarily includes being able to develop themselves to a point that they could credibly confront the other armed forces in the region who may stand in the way of those geo-political directives, in particularly the United States.

The buildup has covered the spectrum of military forces, from strategic rocket forces (ICBM's), tactical rocket forces (SRBM's), ground forces, air forces and naval forces. It is being accomplished with monies that would otherwise have bankrupted the earlier marxist and maoist market economies, and while maintianing their communistic/marxistis political heiarchy. Capitalizing on the low cost labor force that they have opened up to the western world, the Red Chinese are obtaining the influx of capital necessary to maintian their military buildup. Thye are also making adept application of Sun Tsu philosophy (where makes clear that all warfare is deception) to amass staggering western trade defficits (meaning the west is on the deficit end) which are reaping them the tremendous capital and technological capabilities to continue and to achieve their military goals.

In conjucntion with the capital gains, through research and development, blackmail, importation of dual use technologies, bribery and out and out espionage, the Red Chinese have also markedly increased their technological and qualitative capabilities many fold over the last several years. This has allowed them to rise from a point in the early to mid 1990's where they were 25-30 years behind US technology, to a point today (less than fifteen years later) where their newer systems are challenging American capabilities in some areas, and posing a credible threat in others.

While not an exhaustive study, the focus of this article is to examine and present the recent developments in the Chinese Navy (PLAN) which are putting them into a position to credibly challenge the United States Navy in the region.

The Chinese Navy has historically been without any sea-based naval air component. Like the Soviets before them, they have historically relied heavily on land based naval strike aircraft to attack and defeat opposing at-sea naval forces in the region. They have had no aircraft carriers. However, like the Soviets before them, the Chinese have come to see the desirability and necessity of developing sea-based naval air forces if they plan to project power very far from their own shores. In recognition of this, over the last ten years, they have purchased and studied at least three different carrier designs. These ships have been acquired through various strategmns including purchasing them for scrap and then bringing them to Chinese naval yards for study and purchasing them for supposed economic reasons, like making a floating casino out of a former Russian carrier, and then again bringing them to China for study. The two carriers bought for scrap are not suitable for refitting and making operational, but they would have provided Chinese shipbuilders and designers with invaluable knowledge so they can augment their own future naval plans.

The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable. It was towed to the Dalian Chinese naval yards where it is currently being studied for anything but a floating Casino. Given the Chinese capital capabilities, it could easily be refitted and made sea worthy (it was towed at sea from the Black Sea to China) or it could provide the technical basis for a wholly indigenous Chinese carrier.

The Vayrag Entering Chinese waters


The Vayrag birtrhed at Chinese naval shipyards

The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equiped it would approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design) to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credable threat in the China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramitically.

Red Chinese produced SU-27 Aircraft (J11)


The Red Chinese J-10

But do the Chinese intend to do this?

That question can be answered by determining if the Chinese are developing and fielding the necessary escort and support vessels and infrastructure to protect and augment any carrier they develop.

The answer to that questions is an umittigated, yes!

The Chinese have embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented development and ship building program of modern destroyers and frigates that would allow for the creation of powerful carrier battle groups similar to those fielded by the U.S. Navy once they produce a carrier. These include multi-role combat vessels, area air-defense vessels (similar to American Aegis vessels) and support vessels. They have also purchased very capable, modern large surface combatants from the Russians.

The Sovermenny class destroyers were produced by the Soviets in the late 1980's to specifcally threaten U.S. carriers. The Chinese have purchased four of these vessels and refitted and renamed them the Hangzhou class. The Russians modernized the design throughout the 1990's before their sale to the Chinese and they are an example of the type of equipment the Chinese are purchasing with their new found wealth and technology (mostly ammassed from trade with the United States and other western countries). These ships are very capable, mulit-purpose guided missile destroyer and carry the Sunburn and Yahkont surface to surface missiles which were specifically designed by the Russians to attack U.S. super-carriers and defeat the Aegis air defense system. These vessels aslo have a credible medium-ranged anti-air defense system suitable for their own protection, or close in protection of other vessels.

A former Sovremmenny class now saling as the PLAN Hangzhou

To augment the multi-role capabilities of the Hangzhou class, the Chinese have done a very thorough job of development themselves, producing their own modern designs. This started in the 1990's with modernization of the numerous, but older, Luda class of destroyers. It then proceeded to the development of the newer Luhu class desroyers in the mid-1990's and the evolution of that class into the newer and more capable Luhai class by the late 1990's. It is now finally producing their new Typer 52B, Guangzhou class of vessels. With a displacemnt approaching 7,000+ tons and modern anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine weapons systems and using proven Russian Top Dome and other acquisition and targeting sensors, this design represents a modern Chinese version of the Russian Svremmenny and indicates the Chinese commitment to being self-sufficient in their naval development and power projection capabilities. This design is a very capable design and cannot be taken lightly by U.S. war planners. Currently the Chinese have launched two of these newer vessels and are projected to build up to eight of them.

The new PLAN 168 Guanghou destroyer


The second Guanghou destroyer being built

In addition, the Chinese are developing a new, stealthy Type 054 class frigate that will be capable in the anti-air, anti-surface and anti-submarine roles. Similar to the role of the earlier U.S. Perry class frigates, but much newer, more stealthy and an apparent attempt to beat the Americans to the Litoral Combat Ship role, these new frigates are already being built and launched in Chinese shipyards.

The new Type 54 PLAN Frigate

In order to provide the area air coverage necessary to protect a carrier in the modern war-at-sea environment, the Chinese have also embarked on the very ambitious task of developing, building, and launching modern area air-defense destroyers. These ships are similar in design and function to the American AEGIS Burke destroyers and are used to protect large task forces, particularly carrier battle groups from mass air assault by aircraft or missiles.

Captializing on joint exercises and partnership programs with the United States Navy in the 1990's. where Red Chinese officers were actually allowed onboard American Aegis ships to observe their operations, and relying on technology that has been pilfered through dual technology methods, espionage and the rising capabilities of Chinese researchers themselves (who are now very well funded), the Chinese are now building a new class of destroyers, the Type 52C, Lanzhou guided missile destroyers. These vessels will employ Phased Array radar acquisition and targeting systems similar to Aegis and their own long-range, vertical launch missiles. These vessels are meant to be the equivalent of the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burk class destroyers. Two are currently being built simultaneously and it is expected that the Chinese will build at least two more, while developing an even larger and more capable class of vessels which may be intended to rival the vaunted American Ticonderoga class Aegis cruisers.

Two new Type 52C, Lanzhou AEGIS like destroyers under construction

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[Cronos]

I brought up the Roman point to demonstrate that a clever power can overcome it's shortcomings. The Chinese navy is woefully inadequate even compared to Japan, India and Australia, but the Taiwan strait isn't that far away and China can intimidate it's other neighbours by it's land power.

you're very right about our own naval power. We can literally take on the entire world in a naval battle and win. This won't change in the next decade, but beyond 2020, all bets are off. Our army is better than others, but nowhere as dominating as our navy. our airforce is in between in terms of dominance

[FreedomPoster]

Just curious - have you played with any of the Harpoon (computer naval warfare simulation) versions?

For those unfamiliar, Harpoon is what Larry Bond used to simulate the Icelandic / North Atlantic battles in the Clancy novel, Red Storm Rising. There's a big thank-you from Clancy to Bond in the credits of the book.

Spending some time with it is a way to learn about naval platform capabilities and interactions at the operational/strategic level. I haven't touched it in 7-8 years, the new versons look pretty interesting. I Googled them up and took a look at the web pages and forums a few weeks ago.

[Jeff Head]

I am very familiar with the game.

I used the data base editor in Harpoon II and Harpoon III to create and test the large supercavitating weapons I introduce in the books. Long-range (450 nm) with dual propulsion and a 2,000 kilo warhead. They are launched from ships (too big for subs), land and air and cruise at apoximately 50 knots and have a terminal, rocket-powered speed of 500 knots. Sophisticated sonar and acoustic target acquiition and employing digital terrain mapping of the sea floor to navigate. At the terminal rocket speed, have about a 20 mile range after having arrived in the target area from much further away.

As modeled, they wreak havoc on our CBG's and other escorts.

In the books we ulitamtely develop counter technologies, but the surprize introduction of these weapons at the start of hostitilities with China decimates our large Phibron and CBG response to an invasion by N. Korea and effectively moves us out of the western Pacific to begin with.

The owner of the Haproon HQ site has my books referenced on his site links page under literature HERE.

[FreedomPoster]

Yes, I can imagine, from my time with the simulation, that a sophisticated torpedo with the ability to run at 500kts for a 15-20 mile terminal phase would be extremely ugly.

I really need to get your books, don't I? ;-)

Dang reading stack just grows and grows. It's "Arrogance" by Bernard Goldberg this week, a short, fast read.

[Screaming_Gerbil]

Modern ships with dazzle paint schemes? Or are those cables or lnes criss crossing on the hull?

It's duct tape to hold everything together until the glue fully cures.

[Jeff Head]

Harpoon is absolutely the best naval simulation game on the market. Bond did a great job and it's just shy of being so good that it would be classified. The US Naval Reserve used it for training I understand.

I was dissappointed (again) when Harpoon IV washed out.

I have been told that there are some war college scenarios being gamed that include the weapon I have fictionalized. I hope so, because the smaller version has been worked on quite extensively by the Ruskies and it would not take to much of a strecth (particularly since the smaller version has legs that are way too short) for someone to come up with a larger one...loaded on naval or even container ships to look like containers and then launched from significant distances at our forces.

Anyhow...it's just fiction.

If you get the books, please let me know what you think of them as you read them.

Best Fregards.

[Jeff Head]

FYI...reference posts 102, 103, 104 and 106.

Jeff

[Travis McGee]

I don't think it matters in the end whether the specific super cavitating torpedo you postulate pans out. I think the SC torpedo stands for any "breakthrough" weapon introduced by the Chinese in a surprise attack. Anyone who thinks the Chinese are not smart enough to even possibly leapfrog our tech with a breakthrough weapon or classes of weapons is delusional. Prior to Pearl Harbor that type of thinking was very dangerous, regarding the "stupid Japs" who could only make bad copies of American toys.

[Jeff Head]

Agreed. We know they are trying and we can't afford to let up for an instant or get to a point where we think they are not a threat.

IMHO, we should be starving their ability to fund this stuff by taking a much different economic angle. They are artificially bringing their totalitarian regime forward by getting us to fund it to the point of their own self-sufficiency...a state of affairs that would neve happen under their own socialistic/maxistic.maoistic economic models. They have abandoned those economic models in favor of the current ones...but not the ideological basis for their governing or world view. A very dangerous, lulling and pacifying mix.

[ContemptofCourt]

Hi Jeff: I looked at your books, but can you tell me why a paperback is $19.99? I can't recall paying that much for any book in years.

[Jeff Head]

Two reasons.

1) It's self published so I do not have the backing of a big publisher to print 10,000 of them and get the print and shipping costs down. Perhaps someday.

2) It's a trade paperback format, meaning it is the size of a hardback but has a soft, full color cover. The size and the color drive the costs up too.

I choose that format because I am told that large publishers, if they do pick you up later, are much more likely to do so with a self-publisher if he/she hasn't already used one of the typical formats (mass paperback and hardback).

Hope that helps...I'd love to be able to get the price down quite a bit more but just don't have the front cash to do so.

[ContemptofCourt]

Thanks.

[SuperLuminal]

As A.E.N. used to say: "What? Me worry?"

I have no doubt (snicker) that another huge "criminal alien" amnesty program being proposed by those who lead us will more than offset any military advances the chicoms make.

[Little Ray]

450 nm range? Heck, most cruise missiles don't go that far. What sort of target acquistion does it have, and what gives it the mid course correction? The torp must be the size of an ICBM...
Just a question: how does a super-cavitating torp track a target in its terminal phase? I would think that the cavitation would interfere with any sensor system, even a laser.

[Jeff Head]

40ft long and 6ft diameter.

In the terminal phase, it's a straight shot with proximity detonation of the 2000 kilo warhead. But at a mile in less than six seconds, a large ship has very little time to react once the things lite off...less than a minute for 10 miles.

Several variants. Some are seeded like limpit mines and sit in hibernation mode at 1000ft waiting. Others cruise to the target acquisition area at 50kts and then go into acquisition mode. They target a vessel and then lite off when they are close enough to assure a hit. Some launched by aircraft, etc. Later, a variant is developed that does a pop-up manuever where it actually lifts out of the water and attacks accross the last couple of miles like a missile.

They use digital terrain maps of the ocean floor and have sophisticated sonar and acoustic target acquisition capabilities.

All fictional of course.

[Poohbah]

"All fictional of course."

EXTREMELY fictional. There's no way in hell one of these things will actually go 450 miles UNDERWATER and hit a target--maritime targets have this annoying habit of MOVING.

Read up on Outlaw Shark, and the oopsies that happened with that program, to get an idea of (1) the isssues involved in OTH-T, and (2) why we canned the TASM. And the TASM could actually receive target location updates while in flight. Your supercavitation weapon can't.

So, you're stuck with either (a) shooting at targets that can't move at all, (b) shooting hundreds of these things for one hit (which would bankrupt anyone except the United States, and we'd have a hard time maintaining that rate of expenditure), or (c) get used to your weapons locking onto anything that's even remotely close to the intended signature (i.e., your own Super Panamax container ships full of rubber dog poop and whoopie cushions, oil and LNG tankers inbound to Shanghai, et cetera).

Half of your problem is that you used Harpoon for modeling: that game system's EMCON modeling is extremely poor. Communications are never affected by EMCON, and are never counterdetected--you can have a submarine ghosting an enemy surface group via periscope, transmitting detailed OTH-T data without the enemy knowing they're there unless they get a hit on the periscope via radar. It grossly oversimplifies the entire complexion of scouting and antiscouting. Reality does not work like that. It also heavily abstracts the midcourse guidance issue in a manner that makes hits far more likely than they would be in reality.

[Jeff Head]

Take it easy Poohbah...it is fiction.

Harpoon II was good enough for the USNR and has some ardent naval supporters in the user community who have dramatically improved the data base engine and editor in Harpoon III. But I am not going to argue with you on that...if you want to argue, go on those boards and tell them how badly they have done.

As to maritime targets moving...of course they do. But in the confines of the Western Pacific, particularly within the 1st island chain, there are places you have to go if you want to get somewhere. Such a weapon can simply go there and wait. In addition, as I have stated, there are variants that get seeded and wait for the target to approach, others that get launched by air, etc., etc.

But, as I have always stated, the over-riding thing here is that this is a fictional novel series. Don't get so worked up over it. Despite the messages I unabashedly try and convey...the book was written for entertainment. If you don't find it entertaining...the answer is simple and I will not hold it against you in the least.

[sonofatpatcher2]

Re: ...their aremd forces...

How's that again?

[Jeff Head]

Yea...sorry for the several typos/misnomers in the article here on FR. That clearly should be armed forces.

The actual article posted on my site has got all of that pretty much cleaned up.

HERE

[sonofatpatcher2]

Jeff, if you are going to put your writing out for the public to read, remember to get the spelling right. It is like going out in your best suit with toilet paper stuck on your shoe.