[Salvation]

with the five seats in the South open;
Breaux,
Hollings,
Miller,
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(I can't remember the other two......Michael Barone said the Republicans would probably win three of them.

With the two Republican seats open
Oklahoma
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Can't remember the other one there, either.

Barone said the Republicans would probably lose Oklahoma.

So maybe your prediction of '2' will pan out.

[TomGuy]

Blanch Lincoln, Dem in Arkansas, is up for re-election, IIRC.

So far, no significant challenge has been mounted, nor Republican contenders announced.

[Torie]

Edwards and Graham, and Illinois (everybody puts Illinois on the list as the Pubbies most likely loss). But Alaska is in play, and there are maybe another three high second tier states, Spector in Penn, Reid in Nevada, and Daschle in SD, plus some lower second tier states.

[Mike Fieschko]

The two other Senate Dem Southern seats: Edwards (North Carolina) and Graham (Florida).

The other Senate Rep seat: Fitzgerald (Illinois).

[No Dems 2004]

"Barone said the Republicans would probably lose Oklahoma."

Why would he have said that? I don't understand why they would make a prediction like that about one of the South's most Republican states (at the federal level, at least). Brad Carson isn't a god. Personally, I think the GOP will hold this one ... does anybody have a good reason why they won't?