Thomas Sowell: Two earthquakes -

Townhall.com ^ | December 30, 2003 | Thomas Sowell

[Conspiracy Guy]

Say what?

[Conspiracy Guy]

Say what?

[Plutarch]

Is this still true if you eliminate the number of babies from the data that white unmarried women murder???

White unmarried mothers hardly ever murder their children. Their boyfriends murder the children.

[Conspiracy Guy]

Well?

[U S Army EOD]

I don't think that is a true statement. I mean right after birth. In the other cases the boyfriend helps if the mother concents and it is usually their idea. We are talking about babies, not young children. Check your data.

[John H K]

Paso Robles, CA has a population of around 25,000. I think I read that Bam, Iran is around 35,000.

Paso Robles was about 25-30 miles from the epicenter of the quake.

The Bam quake occured on a fault running DIRECTLY through the city.

For a 6.5 magnitude earthquake, that's a HUGE difference.

People really need to stop kidding themselves that the main difference between the two quakes was anything other than locational luck, including Mr. Sowell.

Does the US have better seismic construction, and do we actually enforce our laws? Yes. If we suffered a 6.5 directly under a city the size of Bam, would we have fewer killed? Yes.

But we still could very easily have several thousand killed by a quake. In fact, we will. It's just a matter of time.

I worry more about earthquakes than AQ attacks for this country, myself.

[Publius6961]

I have seen this quoted before, but I haven't seen the actual reference or numbers to back it up.

Don't hold your breath.
This is a classic lie by ommision. Try asking what is the birth rate per 100 pregnancies and compare those!
Killing in utero doesn't seem to count.

[Conspiracy Guy]

OK. If I read you correctly you are making a stupid attempt to insult me. If that is correct, why don't you go outside and play hide and go F yourself. If I am reading you wrong, sorry!

[CyberCowboy777]

I understand your point and agree to a point, that point is technology.

I am only saying that 6.6 in a population center of the size of Bam in the U.S. would not kill 25,000 people - the difference being the technological advances in our architecture available to us by wealth.

There are 1000 year old mud buildings, but most are actually less than 100 years old - look at us 100 years ago compared to them in 2003

Bam has a population of 100,000 people, up to 70% were killed or injured in the 6.6 quake. 25,000 dead.

The population of San Francisco in 1906 was about 400,000, a 7.8 quake caused an estimated death of 3,000. (A 1972 NOAA report suggested that 700-800 was a reasonable figure.)

Our advances by 1906 afforded us better survival rates than Bam in 2003. SF had more people, a larger quake and had by todays standard more than 100 year old architecture.

That is a good comparison and makes Sowells point perfectly.

[CyberCowboy777]

See my post above - Bam has a population of about 100,000.

[ThinkDifferent]

I rarely feel compelled to disagree with Dr, Sowell, but I must in this case. In one word: culture

That's not really a disagreement, just another way of looking at it. It's clear that "traditional" Islamic culture is a major impediment to economic progress.

[CyberCowboy777]

The Bam quake occured on a fault running DIRECTLY through the city.

So did the 1906 SF quake. Paso Robles is a bad example - 1906 is a much better one. 3,000 out of 400,000 vs. 25,000 out of 100,000.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Thanks for the post from one of America's treasures.

[snooker]

Well yes, and no. When the 1989 7.0 quake hit northern CA the results were the same.

I was there and this quake was no joke. But, few people died compared to the Iran quake. Millions were situated in the affected zone of the CA quake.

[justshutupandtakeit]

How many times has it been leveled in the past? And rebuilt in the same fashion constrained by poverty? Sowell is right on the money.

[CyberCowboy777]

[John H K]

How many times has it been leveled in the past?

I've seen no evidence that there's been a big quake in Bam in the last 500 years. It's possible Bam has NEVER been leveled by a quake before.

Most of the seismicity of the area has been to the NW. A fault was mapped there but a given fault can go 5,000-10,000 years without rupturing.

In a treeless environment mud brick construction makes a lot of sense...especially if nobody in your particular town can remember it being leveled by an earthquake.

[rwfromkansas]

I thought the population at Bam was more than that. Wow....I guess building codes/wealth pretty much accounted for it all.

[MineralMan]

"Well, I think the California earthquake struck out in the middle of nowhere, while the one in Iran struck near a major city. That had a lot of impact also.
"

Nope. Bam has a population of 70,000. San Luis Obispo County, where the CA quake struck, has a population of roughly 300,000. The quake was felt equally pretty much in the entire county. It is not the "middle of nowhere." It's just not Los Angeles or San Francisco.

[justshutupandtakeit]

It makes sense only when that is all that you can afford. Once wealth comes in that type of construction becomes a thing of the past for good reason.