Political Prognostication 101

Vanity | 12/13/03 | jonboy7

[jonboy]

I've been reading a lot of tidbits here and there about what is expected to happen in 2004. I thought it would be fun to start a thread for all of us novices and experts to place their own observations and opinions about what is likely to happen in the next election. Insider's input is welcome as well.

[jonboy]

First of all, think about what a favor the Democrats have done Bush to have attacked him for everything. They have blamed him for being at fault for the Iraq War all the way down to their toilet not flushing (and everything in between). In my humble opinion, they have politically innoculated him. Think about it. They have had the help of the media in relentlessly attacking him for EVERYTHING. These attacks haven't hurt him. I think the public has become so accustomed to the attacks that even if they dredge up something of substance, the public will ignore it as just another attack of the day.

Second, if Dean gets the nomination, he will lose many of the more moderate voters, on the other hand, if Hillary gets the nomination, she will have fractured the liberal wing that was endeared of Dean (while Nader could quite possibly be out there to mop them up). Picture if Dean has the nomination, all of the feet stuck in the mouth, all of the attacks. Picture President Bush walking across the stage to shake Dean's hand, and Dean, very possibly just looking at Bush, unwilling to shake in return. Does this sound far-fetched?

Third, Bush is unlikely to do worse than he did in 2004. The same states from 2000 would give Bush more electoral votes than last time because of re-districting. Also from last time, the liberal media was burned because they called so much early for Gore. They are much less likely to do the same this time. How many razor thin outcomes went to Gore, because voter turnout on the Republican side was squelched by the dirty dealing Media.

Fourth, think about what is likely to happen in the Senate. Bush will almost surely have coat tails. Despite the fact that he has made some TERRIBLE calls as President (steel tariff's, prescription drugs, CFR, and a number of others), normal people are not ashamed to have him as President and most are very proud to have him as President. When his commercials come out, expect them to make people feel good about being Americans. Also expect much of his money to be spent so that it helps the Senate races substantially to go for the Republicans. If we get five or six Pubbies, I think that you can almost certainly COUNT ON some Democrats to switch sides or retire due to being out of power, since that's all that they live for. Welcome Filibuster proof Senate.

As to 2008, I look for Dean to so drag down his party apparatus and "leftize" it that they will be in severe trouble.

[thoughtomator]

My Swami hat says that Hitlery will take the Dem nomination at a deadlocked convention, Bush will have demoralized his base thoroughly with CFR, legalizing illegals, massively increasing the size of government, total silence on the rising tide of anti-Christianity, and disdain for the Constitution, leading to a very close Hillary win.

[expatpat]

I don't think the nomination is anywhere near wrapped up. First of all, only 60% of the delegates come from the primary voting (the other 40% are 'super'delegates officially uncommitted). Secondly, those delegates coming from primaries are now committed on a proportional basis, not winner-takes-all, as in prior years.

I'm expecting a horse-trading auction at the convention, with the wicked witch's finger in all the pies.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

A Freeper asserted recently that only 60% of the delegates to the DNC are determined by primary vote; a Dean primary "sweep" can't necessarily deliver the nomination to him if the insiders are adamantly opposed. So the Democratic Convention might very well turn into "interesting times."

But of course the salient political fact of 2004 is that the logic of McCain-Feingold overturnes a Limbaugh Doctrine. That is, anyone who desires to publish criticism of political candidates cannot afford to accept anyone else's statement that Rush--or whoever--"is not a journalist, is not objective." We all are journalists now. All our postings in future will have to be prefaced by, "The news is that . . ." The Establishment will wage a brutal PR campaign against us--but what's new about that?

It is perhaps time to compile the Schadenfreude Chronicles into a lawsuit claiming that The New York Times is not journalism--to establish a precedent, when we lose, that engaging in journalism is simply a right of we-the-people individually, not the collective right to shut up and listen to our betters as McCain-Feingold asserts.

[tbpiper]

Your Swami hat has lice.

[Congressman Billybob]

I already put my prognostication on this subject on the Net and on FR more than a month ago. The article and the thread are entitled "The Election of 2004 is Over, Now."

I stand by every part of that prediction, as I did with my predictions more than a month out for the outcome of the recall election in California. I nailed that one. So far as events unfold, it looks like I have nailed this one, too.

Anyone with greater computer skills than me who wants to link to that 2004 prediction thread is welcome to do so.

John / Billybob

[luvbach1]

President Bush wins handily against Howard Dean. Ditto if, by chance, Hittlery is the 'rats nominee.

[jonboy]

The Honorable Congressman Billybob's Prognostication

[bert]

....They are much less likely to do the same this time....

My take is just the opposite.

The 2004 election boils down to being for all the marbles.

The cornered Rats know this and will spare no effort to survive and even win. The media knows no shame. There is absolutely no honor in any Democrat or related special interest group.An honorable loss simply will not happen. They will all fight to the last man. There will either be blood in the streets or the Rebublicans will lose.

Complacency, like appeasement, kills.

[ETERNAL WARMING]

It will be Hitlery vs. Bush and Bush will squeek thru. It's the only way he'll see another vote from me.