Posted on 12/10/2003 7:02:58 PM PST by shortstop
Al Gore has done it again.
There is a reason he isn't president and it's not just the chads in Florida. The man has the worst political instincts of anyone to have gotten as far as he did in this business.
Once again, he has proven why he is a loser and not a leader.
Of course, the endorsement by the former vice president helps Howard Dean, at least in the short run. It cements his role as the front runner in the race, sending a powerful message about the race to insiders and outsiders. Try making fundraising calls today if you are Joe Lieberman or John Kerry or Dick Gephardt. Try explaining to would-be donors how it is that the race is still wide open. Say thank you to Al Gore for that.
But if Dr. Dean wins the nomination, Gore can hardly claim to have been the kingmaker. The rules were written for a candidate like Howard Dean. They were intended to ensure that an insurgent candidate would have a chance against a better financed, better organized front-runner. When the better financed, better organized candidate IS the insurgent, the rules provide him with an overwhelming advantage. According to current polls, Dean is already ahead of John Kerry in New Hampshire, and is running neck and neck with Dick Gephardt in Iowa. But the Iowa numbers may be misleading. Polling in caucus states is notoriously difficult to begin with. Dean's Internet base should help him immeasurably, and the fact that Dean is free to spend as much as he wants in Iowa, while Gephardt is limited by the expense limits that come with federal matching funds, gives Dean advantages not reflected in the current numbers.
To be sure, the fat lady has yet to sing. There is always a chance that Gore's endorsement could backfire. Iowans do not like to be told how to vote. There is a nasty streak among Democratic primary and caucus voters: Candidates can start losing when they become"inevitable" and "unbeatable"- just ask Fritz Mondale who almost lost the nomination to the unknown Gary Hart.
Still, the smart money for the nomination has been on Dean for some time, which gives the other candidates even more reason to be angry at the former vice president, both personally and institutionally.
Was Joe Lieberman not loyal enough? Remember the Al Gore who used to complain about HIS running mate Bill Clinton not being loyal to HIM? Al Gore apparently did not even have the decency to call Lieberman before endorsing his opponent.
What about Dick Gephardt, who carried the Clinton-Gore agenda for eight years in the House, and then put aside his own personal ambitions in 2000 to endorse Al Gore over his friend, Bill Bradley? And what about all of Gore's former aides, who are now working for Wesley Clark?
What harm would it have done for Gore to wait, and give voters the first chance to decide? Let his former running mate, his former allies, his former aides take their best shot, and if they fail, so be it. He had that chance. Why should they? Indeed, the danger for Gore is that if Dean should be the nominee and lose, as some on the hawkish side of the Democratic Party fear (including some old friends from the Democratic Leadership Council, which Gore helped to form-and watch Hillary Clinton while you are at it), Gore can kiss his role in the party goodbye. But that's the least of it.
Even looking only at this year, the former vice president's timing is way off. The time for leadership comes later, when at least some voters have had the opportunity to speak, when a winner has emerged and when the time has come for the losers to pull out, the party to pull together and the nominating season to be over.
The problem with the Democratic rules, and I know because I both wrote many of them and suffered under them, is that it can take too long even for a winner to amass the number of delegates necessary to cement the nomination. Because the Democrats have eliminated winner-take-all primaries, because minor candidates can stay in the race and continue to collect delegates, there becomes a point in the process when you need party leaders to declare the process ended, even if no one has literally won a majority yet. Al Gore could have played that role- now someone else will have to. A man who has stepped on those who have stood by him is in no position to lead.
That jusy makes this more fun to watch!
Good read. I sometimes wonder if I'm living in some alternative universe, when I find myself agreeing more and more with Susan Estrich. The fact that the St. Pete Times actually ran this reinforces that feeling.,
Gore throwing his support to Dean at this hour were the embarrassing flailings of a dolt trying desperately to avoid his free fall into insignificance.
It's ineptness was only surpassed by the mainstream media's attempt to make it significant.
Shame on all of them.
Thanks for your hard work.
I was flabbergasted to read the byline.
Cue Hillary's entrance, next spring.
I don't think Gore was endorsing a presidential candidate. On the contrary, I think he was throwing his weight behind the next potential leader of the DNC. IMO, there's a great power struggle for the DNC leadership going on behind the scenes and Gore shot the first public salvo. I'm waiting with great anticipation to see what the HMS Clinton fires back.
I don't see Hill running second banana to Dean under any circumstances, although if she's smart she'd consider just that. But not that ego, I just don't see it. Which means that Dean must be defeated or defanged, and Algore's defection makes it considerably more difficult for her chosen instrument for that, Wes Clark, to accomplish his mission. From her point of view Dean mustn't get the nomination at all, because if he does she ends up working against her party in a presidential election or risks spending 2008 working on Dean's re-election campaign.
I'm just glad I'm out of ash-tray range.
Naahh. She's just finally joining the Zel Miller wing of the Democrat party. I think she has the same distates for the Clintons as does Dick Morris.
-PJ
Another poster once wrote a theory on Hillary!'s strategy given that she is not running in any primaries and the deadlines to file are coming up fast (or have already passed). The strategy is that the convention delegates are bound, by rules, to their respective candidates FOR THE FIRST ROUND ONLY. If no nominee wins the first round of voting, then the delegates are free to vote for whomever they wish. That is when Hillary! steps in to take the nomination.
It may be that Gore unintentionally made that possibility more likely to occur.
-PJ
Susan Estrich: Hillary Clinton absolutely unelectable
Op/Ed by Susan Estrich is surprisingly candid about X42 and Hillary
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