How Dean Could Win . . .

WP ^ | 12/10/2003 | William Kristol

[FRgal4u]

...

Could Dean really win? Unfortunately, yes. The Democratic presidential candidate has, alas, won the popular presidential vote three times in a row -- twice, admittedly, under the guidance of the skilled Bill Clinton, but most recently with the hapless Al Gore at the helm. And demographic trends (particularly the growth in Hispanic voters) tend to favor the Democrats going into 2004.

But surely the fact that Bush is now a proven president running for reelection changes everything? Sort of. Bush is also likely to be the first president since Herbert Hoover under whom there will have been no net job creation, and the first since Lyndon Johnson whose core justification for sending U.S. soldiers to war could be widely (if unfairly) judged to have been misleading.

...

[KC_Conspirator]

The illegal vote, which is illegal and a diret threat to our democracy, definately is a factor. However, its still possible to win. Take a look at Arnold's victory. He promised (and actually followed up on it) to get rid of illegal driver licenses against an Hispanic in a 3 person race. Admittedly there were other factors involved, but victory is still possible.

[Gorjus]

That is the only way to get votes.

On this we disagree. It [pressing the flesh] is important, but more as a way to raise money than get actual votes (though of course money leads to votes). The country is just too big to have personal contact with enough voters to matter. Publicity like that, looking presidential in a way that doesn't seem like campaigning but has to be reported by the press is very effective campaigning.

He needs to do the traditional campaigning, too, but mostly to convince people he's not taking their votes for granted. It won't change many people's minds, but it is important to motivate the base to actually get out and vote.

[ThinkDifferent]

No, Clinton won 43% of the popular vote in 1992, and 49% in 1996.

Yeah, but both of those were clear pluralities, and without Perot he would have been above 50%. In 2000 around 52% voted in favor of more socialism. I still think Bush will win, but it's far from a certainty.

[Reagan Man]

Bill Kristol is being Bill Kristol.

Is there a chance Bush could lose? Yeah. But theres a better chance, a 90% chance he's gonna win. No reason to overreact. Everyone should know what's going on here. It's the presidential political season. Get used to it.

[pfflier]

I disagree. The question being posed is diametric values. Will mainstream America support Dean's agenda? No way.

The hard core Dean supporters will "get out the vote" . This will only be hard core leftists. The centrists will face a choice: Vote for Bush (probably not) or don't vote at all.

The only way President Bush can be beaten is Republican voter apathy. Dean is perceived to be the loser so Republican and traditional American values supporters stay home in equal numbers to the disenchanted demoncrats. Bush won't lose in that case, the Republicans will have thrown away the opportunity to win.

[polemikos]

No, Clinton won 43% of the popular vote in 1992, and 49% in 1996.

Yes, that's what he means.

[Search4Truth]

Kristol conveniently excludes the fact that Bush is also the first President to have had an attack of the scope and scale of 9/11 on US soil. That not so small point invalidates what little argument he offers. When one considers that fact, President Bush has done extraordinarily well. We will see what the people think come Nov 04.

My guess is that the Liberals are going to be very dissappointed, again. No doubt they'll blame it on not getting their message out and the VRWC, when in fact, Americans are getting their message quite clearly - they hate America.

[2Hot4You]

Kristol is correct, in the sense that if we sit back and assume President Bush will be reelected, Howard the Duck could slip in. It looks like I'm going to be a Bush county chair here in Colorado (and proudly so), and I can assure everyone that we're taking nothing for granted. Plus, we have to be sure to capture more Senate seats and, in our case, make sure that the Democrats don't worm their way into one or two of our House seats (Beauprez, running for re-election, and McInnis' seat, which is open).

[petercooper]

yes everyone always forgets Perot got 20 million votes in 1992 and something like 10 million in 1996

[varon]

The libs underestimated GWB and look where it got them.

Yes and GHB underestimated Clinton and look what it got us. Anyone arrogant enough to thinks GWB is unbeatable best look at recent history of "unbeatable" incumbents to the white house.

[twigs]

I agree with you. I also think Bush fully anticipates a very dirty campaign season. Have you seen the latest Bush ad? It shows how angry most of the dem candidates are. It's a wonderful ad and contrasts them all to the president's professional and calm way he goes about doing the country's business.

[finnman69]

The new GOP ad is great and I hope we stay positive as long as positive. Eventually due to the sheer volume of negative crap the DNC and special interest soft money George Soros/Moveon.org ads buy willr equire Karl Rove to get nasty.

The good news is Karl Rove is a friggin political genius who thinks strategically and tactically. He has several plans, moves, counter moves, etc. in the works.

[Cicero]

That Does IT! Bill Kristol dissing Bush in the Washington Post, of all places!

He's lost all my respect! What? Oh, that's right, he never had my respect in the first place, not since he cheered clinton on while he bombed Belgrade and let the Albanians into Kosovo. Not since he pimped for McCain. Not since . . . oh, well.

[ppaul]

Dean will succeed the democRATis way - scorched earth.
Smear all opponents.
Stab 'em in the back.

Stabbed in the back.

[finnman69]

"Karl Rove is a fag. Dean can win if he runs to the right of Bush, and since there's so much room to W's right it shouldn't be hard to do.

Gee, why don't you just sign up as Bush's politcal advisor then genius?

[Jim Cane]

Because I don't work well with leftists.

[Grampa Dave]

Kristol again proves that he is a life long mole of the rats pretending to be a conservative.

Kristol's problem is that he is no more welcomed at the White House than my dead dog. She passed away about 14 years ago.

[woodyinscc]

Kristol's problem is that he is no more welcomed at the White House than my dead dog. She passed away about 14 years ago.

LOL!

If Kristol would look forward every now and then, he just might get one of those coveted invites. Unfortunately he cannot forget South Carolina.

[Grampa Dave]

GW doesn't forget what Kristol said/did in 2000 and since then.

All of these clowns seem to go after the same market, the 1-3 % of the population that claims to be conservatives, yet hate GW more than the rats do. I call it the decreasing pyramid scam.