Posted on 11/18/2003 8:40:56 AM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection
BOBBY JINDAL'S DEFEAT in the Louisiana governor's race Saturday is a bigger loss for Republicans than just an office they've held for eight years. For now, it denies the party an impressive new national figure, a 32-year-old Indian-American who's destined to be a political star sometime--but not yet. Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the "Wilder effect," named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced. Jindal's advisers worried that he might lose the "Bubba vote," rural whites unwilling to vote for a black candidate or even a dark-skinned Indian-American. The Jindal camp's fears were realized. A Republican normally needs two-thirds of the white vote to win in Louisiana to compensate for losing nearly all of the black vote. But Jindal got only 60 percent of whites, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm. Its findings were reported in the New Orleans Times-Picayune. Had Jindal fared better among blacks, he might have won despite losing white votes. But he got only 9 percent of blacks, this after mounting a highly-publicized effort to attract black voters. Jindal was endorsed by several black political organizations, a former associate of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who is black. Nonetheless, he did only slightly better among blacks than Republicans normally do. Jindal, whose parents moved to Baton Rouge from India shortly before he was born, won 70 percent of the white vote in the New Orleans area. But outside that urban hub in the more rural and poorer parts of the state, only 48 percent of whites voted for Jindal, according to the GCR analysis. Blanco's victory was hailed by Democrats, and for good reason. It broke the Republican winning streak in governor's contests this year. (One of those new Republican governors, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is being sworn in today in California.) Republicans also won in Kentucky and Mississippi, seats that had also been held by Democrats. In Louisiana, Republican Gov. Mike Forster is stepping down after two terms. His successor, Blanco, is a conservative Democrat opposed to abortion and tax increases and closer philosophically to Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia than to most national Democrats. Jindal, a Brown University graduate and Rhodes Scholar with a dazzling résumé, ran a positive campaign, calling himself a "problem solver." When Blanco ran a TV commercial attacking his tenure as head of Louisiana's hospitals, he didn't respond directly to the charges, though he criticized her for going negative. Some Republican strategists thought his campaign was simply too nice for the rough and tumble of Louisiana politics, especially when he left serious charges unrefuted. Had he won, Jindal would surely have emerged as a national spokesman for the Republican party. For one thing, he is a policy wonk who talks knowledgeably about health care, Medicare reform, and education. For another, he would add to the ethnic diversity of Republican leaders. But his time has not yet come.
That's why we have to fear a Hillary! candidacy.
Ballot initiatives=Rule by the Sheeple
Support among white voters helped Blanco turn tide
Jindal polled better than normal among state's black voters
Sunday November 16, 2003
By Laura Maggi and Jeffrey Meitrodt
Staff writers
Kathleen Blanco's remarkable victory Saturday was propelled by her ability to capture more white voters than Democrats typically can count on in statewide races against Republicans.
Republican Bobby Jindal's bold push to win over African-American voters with high-profile endorsements succeeded to a point: He got 9 percent of the black vote, almost twice what most Republicans typically get in the state.
But as much attention as that garnered, a key to Blanco's victory was the white vote, of which she won 40 percent, according to an analysis of returns in Louisiana's 4,143 precincts by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm in New Orleans.
In the weeks leading up to Saturday's vote, Jindal was considered the front-runner because he led in some polls, even as others showed the race close.
After the primary, during which she captured 18 percent of the vote to Jindal's 33 percent, Blanco had a tough time pulling together the disparate Democratic factions.
Blanco's best hope seemed to be energizing the Democratic base of African-Americans to go to the polls. Historically, African-Americans vote less regularly than white voters, and Democrats were concerned that turnout would decline in the runoff since Blanco ran third among African-American voters in the Oct. 4 primary.
In the primary, only 45 percent of the state's black voters turned out, according to Greg Rigamer of GCR. Saturday, that rate climbed to 46 percent.
White vote was unchanged at 54 percent, Rigamer said.
In an unusual twist for most Democratic statewide candidates, Blanco could not take for granted that she would receive the overwhelming number of those votes. Early in the runoff, Jindal made an effort to woo black voters from their traditional role as stalwart members of the Democratic camp, winning endorsements from a handful of black leaders, including New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.
In the end, Blanco won 91 percent support among black voters.
Significantly, her support among black voters in the New Orleans area was slightly smaller at 89 percent, perhaps because of the Nagin endorsement.
But Jindal's bigger problem, it turned out, was among white voters. Republicans typically need about two-thirds of the white vote in order to succeed in a statewide race, said Elliot Stonecipher, a political analyst based in Shreveport.
Jindal achieved that in the New Orleans area, winning 70 percent of white voters, Rigamer said. But in the rest of the state, he trailed Blanco among white voters, getting only 48 percent.
The Times-Picayune paid Rigamer for his analysis. A portion of the firm's work is conducted for politicians, and in this race Rigamer worked for Blanco.
I learned a huge lesson in this election, which is, no matter what, Louisiana will alway be a stinking hell-hole. I actually had hope for my native state on election day. Ordinarilly, I am pestimistic towards Lousisiana. I read the polls, got hopeful, only to be slapped into reality. If not for my friends and family, I would never return there.
What are you gonna do next? Call me chicken? Look, I am just not motivated to get into a discussion about it. It's really not that important what I think. I am pretty sure it won't make a difference on what you think. So why bother? Why not just let it be? Huck doesn't want Condi Rice to be president. It's not that big a deal.
To tell you the truth, I don't really know of any really inspiring leaders on the GOP side. I can't think of one, come to think of it. Maybe one will emerge. Could you list 3 GOP potential candidates that excite you? I seriously can't think of one.
Don't need to. You've demonstrated your character admirably. No worries. Ms Rice does not need my help protecting hers from the likes of you.
I see. You were feeling chivalrous. Gotcha.
Yeah, pretty f&^%ed up!
Pretty as in beautiful? Yes, it is, unless you go near urban areas.
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