The Wilder Effect - Why Bobby Jindal lost in Louisiana, despite being ahead in the polls.

Weekly Standard ^ | 11/17/03 | FredBarnes

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

BOBBY JINDAL'S DEFEAT in the Louisiana governor's race Saturday is a bigger loss for Republicans than just an office they've held for eight years. For now, it denies the party an impressive new national figure, a 32-year-old Indian-American who's destined to be a political star sometime--but not yet.

Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the "Wilder effect," named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced.

Jindal's advisers worried that he might lose the "Bubba vote," rural whites unwilling to vote for a black candidate or even a dark-skinned Indian-American. The Jindal camp's fears were realized. A Republican normally needs two-thirds of the white vote to win in Louisiana to compensate for losing nearly all of the black vote. But Jindal got only 60 percent of whites, according to an analysis by GCR & Associates Inc., a political consulting firm. Its findings were reported in the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

Had Jindal fared better among blacks, he might have won despite losing white votes. But he got only 9 percent of blacks, this after mounting a highly-publicized effort to attract black voters. Jindal was endorsed by several black political organizations, a former associate of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who is black. Nonetheless, he did only slightly better among blacks than Republicans normally do.

Jindal, whose parents moved to Baton Rouge from India shortly before he was born, won 70 percent of the white vote in the New Orleans area. But outside that urban hub in the more rural and poorer parts of the state, only 48 percent of whites voted for Jindal, according to the GCR analysis.

Blanco's victory was hailed by Democrats, and for good reason. It broke the Republican winning streak in governor's contests this year. (One of those new Republican governors, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is being sworn in today in California.) Republicans also won in Kentucky and Mississippi, seats that had also been held by Democrats. In Louisiana, Republican Gov. Mike Forster is stepping down after two terms. His successor, Blanco, is a conservative Democrat opposed to abortion and tax increases and closer philosophically to Democratic Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia than to most national Democrats.

Jindal, a Brown University graduate and Rhodes Scholar with a dazzling résumé, ran a positive campaign, calling himself a "problem solver." When Blanco ran a TV commercial attacking his tenure as head of Louisiana's hospitals, he didn't respond directly to the charges, though he criticized her for going negative. Some Republican strategists thought his campaign was simply too nice for the rough and tumble of Louisiana politics, especially when he left serious charges unrefuted.

Had he won, Jindal would surely have emerged as a national spokesman for the Republican party. For one thing, he is a policy wonk who talks knowledgeably about health care, Medicare reform, and education. For another, he would add to the ethnic diversity of Republican leaders. But his time has not yet come.

[Huck]

A lot of freepers seem pretty taken by her.

[wardaddy]

for transparent reasons in my view.

don't get me wrong, I admire her accomplishments but her stance on abortion kills the deal for me. I want my president to at least pretend to be pro-life. and I have not seen enough on her expertise aside from foreign policy to merit all this heroine worship except over her gender and race which don't mean squat to me.

however...I have no doubt that at this juncture the first woman or minority president will be ostensibly conservative.

nor do I think Jindhal lost due to racism. LA is strongly Dem (arguably the strongest and longest history of electing Dems in the country since Reconstrucion) and the image of Blanco ...however flawed ...was that she is a social conservative which is where the rubber meets the road down here.

I think most of the race baitors on this thread are reaching and canard purveying. LA can change though, it's just slow. It's the last southern state to get on board but it will in time hopefully. Arkansas is not the same issue. Hutchinson lost due to his messy divorce, hence we are back again to social conservatism being the defining factor here...not race. Conservatives will support a true conservative minority in a heartbeat and enjoy doing so.

[JohnnyZ]

It looks like he was able to get--surprise surprise--about 1 out of 10.

Instead of 95-5, it was 90-10. And that's on roughly 25% of the electorate. If the electorate was 400 people, he gained 5 and Blanco lost 5. That closes a 2.5% gap. How is picking up 2.5% not huge? It's simple arithmetic.

Of course, you have to be within 2.5 points in the first place for it to mean victory, but why dismiss the successful part of the campaign strategy because other parts of a campaign were less successful?

[Huck]

I would say I am slightly prejudiced against women for the top spot. Yeah, I guess that makes me a horrible person. Oh well. I don't care about race. The hanger for me on Rice is just her leadership capabilities. Some of that comes through in a person's resume, and some of it is just the gut feeling you get. It's hard to define. But let's face it, what made Ronald Reagan so effective was mostly the stuff that's hard to define. That and his rock solid foundation of beliefs.

What are Rice's core beliefs? Why should I think she can persuade Americans? Why should I think she will be a shrewd negotiator. A tough customer? I don't have any reason to believe it.

Also, and I guess this makes me even more awful, I am prejudiced against highly educated intellectual bureacrats, and let's face it, that's what she is. I like the self made man. Maybe because I am one. So there. It doesn't have to make sense to anyone but me, anyway.

I didn't even know her position on abortion.

[Huck]

All he did was get the maximum allowable black votes for a GOPer: 10% (a little less actually.) Yawn.

[JohnnyZ]

All he did was get the maximum allowable black votes for a GOPer

You're so right, we're better off minimizing the GOP share of the black vote.

Ignorant Hick.

[wardaddy]

lol....well I have a pet peeve about women preachers but that's another thread.

I would be happy with a Maggie Thatcher comparable as POTUS but I can't think of one offhand. Jeane Kirkpatrick came close but she is too old now and rambles a bit for the TV age.

As for blacks, I like Alan Keyes but he is not electable. I like JC Watts but .....

Hell, I don't know of any strong conservative female or minority candidates for the job off hand....I'm not even sure I could name W's replacement right now.

I know it may be laughable to some, but the brightest relatively young conservative I see at this moment with spunk is Joe Scarborough but he's not even in politics right now...he's on the graavy train so to speak.

Anybody can think of some good minority or female rising stars aside from Condi, I'll be more than happy to be enlightened but I don't think the quest to find one is an end all and it skirts dangerously close to acting like Dems speak and govern(but don't practice themselves obviously).

[JohnnyZ]

Anybody can think of some good minority or female rising stars aside from Condi

GraniteStateConservative is planning US Rep. Melissa Hart's ascendancy to our nation's higher office. After Craig Benson's two terms, anyway.

[Huck]

Thatcher was a tough cookie. I'm just being honest that I have a bias. But Thatcher could have gotten my vote. I share your bias regarding preachers, too. And while we're at it, how about sportscasters? Linda Cohn? Unlistenable! OK, that's also another thread.

I also don't see who the next GOP leaders will be. A lot of people say they like Bill Owen, but he seems a little...I don't know...soft. We want someone who scares the living hell out of liberals, but appeals to regular folks. I don't think that person is out there at the moment.

[Huck]

Ignorant Hick.

This sort of talk reflects poorly on you. Temper tantrums and name calling are for immature little babies, not for grownups.

[JohnnyZ]

Oops, I meant "Ignorant Huck".

Ah . . . I kill me!

[wardaddy]

Yep..

Lady Sportscasters are only good for Maxim Magazine pictorials and for being harrassed in the men's locker rooms...where they have no business being IMHO.

[wardaddy]

damn...you got me ignorant on both of them...I will have to google.

The only Melissa Hart I know is a cute actress.

Granite State Conservative is a fine fellow and he acquits himself well enough but I would not put him in charge of "Southern Strategy"...lol...he's still pissed over Sumner's caning 150 years ago.

[JohnnyZ]

Hart - PA swing district (pretty, too)

Benson - NH guv

[Kuksool]

Melissa Hart would make an awesome Governor or Senator. She has the ability to attract Reagan Democrats in Pittsburgh.

[Edit35]

"The outgoing La. Gov. Foster is a Republican. He has been a big let down to many people.

Can't believe what I'm reading here.

If I lived in LA, I'd be voting for Jindal PRECISELY BECAUSE he was hated and opposed the hard-core genocidal 91-percent African American Democratic voting race-mongering leftists.

By the way, you said the previous GOP gov "let you down."

What is it that he didnt' do that you wanted so badly.

[Edit35]

"Unfortunately this sort of group loyalty means Blacks not only tend to overly exhalt "their" leaders, they also tend to not hold "their" leaders accountable

In other words, most blacks base their votes SOLELY on race.

I think there's a word for that.

[shhrubbery!]

I certainly wouldn't want Condi a step away from the Presidency.

Why not?

I'll answer that question, for me at least:

1. She's 'pro-choice.'

No matter what you think about on abortion, the fact that a pol is 'pro-choice' almost always signals that he/she is 'moderate' on other issues important to conservatives, too, e.g. 'gun control,' 'affirmative action,' and Big Gummint spending programs.

2. She's never been elected to anything.

She needs to stand for election to a lower office so her character and stand on the issues are subjected to greater scrutiny.

[LucyJo]

Well, thanks for only considering North Carolina in a nat'l election! I, for one, don't want Hillary or anyone who thinks like her in the White House, and that pretty much includes the left side of the political spectrum. Leaving that to others, or to chance, by not participating in the process is a disservice to the Republic, IMHO. If our military folks are willing to sacrifice their time, effort, and sometimes their very lives for freedom, it seems the least we, as citizens of this great country can do is to vote, and try to influence the office holders to support the policies we believe are best for our nation. If you think your involvement doesn't matter, you are wrong. Guess you never heard the quote about what happens when good men do nothing.

[JohnnyZ]

Guess you never heard the quote about what happens when good men do nothing.

What happens, their wives do it for them? ;)