Forecasts for Early 2004 Are Lifted by Economists

WALL STREET JOURNAL ^ | November 13, 2003 | CINDY PERMAN and JON E. HILSENRATH

[OESY]

Economists are nudging higher their projections for economic growth early next year, suggesting they are becoming more confident the recovery is sustainable.

Among 53 economists who participated in The Wall Street Journal Online's November economic-forecasting survey, the average forecast for the inflation-adjusted, annualized growth rate of the nation's gross domestic product during the first quarter of 2004 was 4.1%. That was revised up from the 3.9% rate predicted when the group was last surveyed in October.

[OESY]

ECONOMIC FORECASTING SURVEY: Growth Is Expected to Remain Solid Amid a Revival in Business Spending

[OESY]

In a separate aspect of the survey, economists weighed in for the first time on the economic policies of presidential contenders in the Democratic Party. While Howard Dean, who has called for the repeal of the Bush Administration's tax cuts, is widely seen as a front-runner for the party's nomination, he wasn't a favorite among the business economists who participate in the survey. Only one economist surveyed said Mr. Dean's policies were best suited -- when compared with the other Democratic candidates -- to increase employment, incomes and growth.

Senator Joseph Lieberman won the support of 11 economists, or 29% of those who answered the question, while Wesley Clark won the support of five and John Kerry won the support of four. Eight economists indicated they felt none of the candidates could get the job done.

Even the economists are getting their act together.

[Qwinn]

"Moreover, they said the effect of tax cuts hasn't yet faded. Nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed said that the effects of the tax cuts will continue to have a significant impact on economic growth over the next 12 months, while 7.7% said tax cuts would be the primary driver of growth over that period. More than 17% said that tax cuts will have some effect, but not a meaningful one, in the next year, while only 1.9% said tax cuts would have no effect."

Heheheh... when you consider that there were only 53 economists in the poll, you realize that that last 1.9% they mention is ONE PERSON. Lemme take a wild stab in the dark - Paul Krugman?

Qwinn

[Coop]

FYI

[GatekeeperBookman]

Only 8 out of 59 understand that all the Dumbocrats are dolts??? Maybe the 8 are Hilbebeast plants. Where was the meeting, at a demoncat pre-caucus in Iowa?? were they really farmers who trade grain & pork?? Who woulkd buy anything more than a nice hat from old Joe-"Hadasa! Why must I keep telling these people why I am running?"

[Texas_Dawg]

Yes, but sadly, allowing Americans to trade with foreigners will ruin all of this, as evidenced by how Japan and Mexico have conquered America militarily and economically multiple times in the last decade.

We're all doomed.

[Coop]

The market just shot up 50 points in about 20 minutes after opening. I wonder why?

[Texas_Dawg]

Stronger than expected UMichigan consumer sentiment number.

[dakine]

DOW 12,000 next summer...

[Coop]

Aha! I missed that news somewhere.

[RiflemanSharpe]

I hope you are right.

[Coop]

Here it is:

Reuters Business News
U.Mich Consumer Sentiment Surprisingly Up
10:02 a.m. 11/14/2003 Provided by

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence surged more than expected in November, market sources said on Friday, boosted by recent job growth and a stronger stock market.

The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment for November raced to 93.5 in a preliminary reading, well above economists' median forecast of 91.0 and a final reading in October of 89.6.

The survey's current conditions index jumped to 102.8 from 99.9 in October.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which is released only to paying customers, is based on telephone interviews with 500 U.S. households over the course of the month on personal finances and business and buying conditions.

The preliminary survey, released about midway through the month, is based on the first 250 interviews.

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Of course no sooner did I mention it than the stock market plummeted back to near zero gain. :-)