Let's not sit back in self assurance but continue to work hard to ensure that it does in fact become reality.
Glad to be of service. Lemme know what y'all thank.
Next year when the Dems realize that Dean is a lost cause, the money will dry up......BIG TIME.....and Dean will be left flapping in the wind!
The demise of the Democrat Party will be better for the health of America than the demise of the Soviet Union and world communism!!!
If Hillary parachutes in, she has an even chance of defeating Bush. That's the REAL nightmare scenerio.
A serious consideration. Hillary and her handlers are acutely aware of the fact that the "world's smartest woman" could never survive a full year of presidential campaigning without suffering "foot in the mouth" disease. She has enough negatives going for her now without taking the additional risk of lengthy public scrutiny and disclosure. Better she sit in the cat bird's seat watching her competition destroy their credibility (with a little help from her friends of course) and descend at the last possible moment as the "savior" by Democratic Party mandate. This is the major reason McCauliff remains at the helm of the DNC.
She won't take the chance in 2003 for 2004. The odds are too great. [Texas hold-‘em "all in"?]
No she'll wait for 2008.
I'm not interested in being complacent, and somehwat resent your otherwise excellent piece because it may make others complacent. I intend to campaign very hard here in the greater Los Angeles area to try to help carry this state for the President and help ensure his re-election. I have not forgotten, nor will I ever forget 9/11/01, the nearly simultaneous anthrax attacks, the DC sniper attacks, and the sacrifices of our armed forces in confronting the terrorism threat ever since.
President Bush has been a giant among world leaders, and a steadfast bulwark between me and those who want to kill me just because I'm an American. So this President deserves my utmost support. The ghosts of those who died on those planes, in the WTC, the Pentagon, the fields of Pennsylvania, and the fields of Afghanistan and Iraq DEMAND at least that much of me. I will not dissapoint them.
So, with all due respect, "Congressman," please let's not take this upcoming election for granted.
A computer program can be set to automatically donate to Dean at a predetermined time (like when he announces a "fundraiser" on the net) and the money is transferred to Dean from all those dummy credit card accounts. The accounts are then paid from the funds deposited by the donor.
Democrats do not donate small amounts over a long period of time to a primary candidate. I have two democrats in my family, and one (my union brother) NEVER donates, as he counts on the union to do so. The other, one of my sisters, donates only as the general election approaches, and she gives small amounts one time.
Democrats have NOT been able to count on small donors for a long time. Why does Dean suddenly have all these donors? I maintain that it is an elaborate fraud, and one which will remain hidden unless we get lucky.
From a policy standpoint, the man is a disaster, combining as he does the worst features of McGovernite cut-and-run foreign policy, Carterish one-worldism, and Mondalesque tax hikes. Electorally, he's even worse; no geographic base to speak of, only some unions and (maybe) the traditional black, homosexual, professioriat, and lockstep loony lefty voting base.
What states do he or the 'Rats think he'll carry, f'Heaven's sake? VT, ok, probably. MA ME, likely enough, RI, too. CT? Tossup, at best. NH, forget it. NY, assuming Hitlery doesn't torpedo his ass, very possibly as is NJ. But south of there, he's got only DC and a shot at MD. Scratch PA and OH -- battleground states no more, or at least not with Howard the Doc as the head of the ticket.
MI? Dunno -- can our MI FReeper friends tell how much influence the Mohammedan vote has in Wayne Co. and statewide? Enough to tip it? I've no idea. IL is a possible, courtesy of Crook County and the utter disarray of the Pubbies there. WI, don't think so, I believe the idiot Gov there has stabbed the 'Rats in the knee with his shenanigans on marriage and CCW. MN, far less likely than in 2000, and IA goes in the GOP column this time, too.
Which leaves, fapp for the 'Rats, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI, and conceivably NV -- and they'll lose a couple of those states, likely enough, esp. if the economy is into a solid recovery. What's that add up to? Maybe 130-140 EVs, best case, and could be well under 100 if Dean continues to make remarks weird enough to make the average psychotic look like Einstein. Hell's bells, even the inept Dole did better than that.
OK, that's my 2 cents, take it from there.
I am curious how the revilation the Kerry is not even a little bit Green will cost him among the Irish vote.
Let's not sit back in self assurance but continue to work hard to ensure that it does in fact become reality.
He is neglecting the third and most important condition; Hillery would have to be relatively sure she could beat Dubya. I believe she would only consider it if the economy is tanking and Dubya's approval rating is significantly below 50%, in the 40% range. My bet is she will wait until 2008.
POKER NOTE
They are "table stakes" games. That means any competitor can at any time go "all in."
The term the author is looking for here is "no limit". "Table stakes" means that you can only play with money already on the table when the hand starts. You can add money between hands, but not during the hand.
I'm not quite as convinced as you are about the outcomes of the Democrat nomination and the general election, but I'm leaning that way in both cases.
At this point, I'd say Dean is almost even money to take the nomination. His decision to forego matching funds has to be a psychological blow to the other dwarves, and will bring confidence to his followers. Still, it should be noted that 1) not a single delegate has yet been selected, and it might be a tad early for the coronation; 2) Dean, as the leader for the nomination, will get ganged up on by the others, as we saw in the aftermath of the pickup truck/Confederate flag flap; 3) Dean, being hot-tempered, will have ample opportunity to again "step in it"; and 4) I question whether Dean can carry South Carolina against a field that will have been effectively narrowed by then, even if there are no official dropouts.
I confess to still having a touch of Gephardtphobia. If he manages to win the Iowa caucus (which he must to remain viable; 2nd place in a Midwestern state by the only major Midwestern candidate won't cut it), he could survive a 3rd place finish in New Hampshire, and look toward the South, where he is (inexplicably) viewed by some as a moderate.
Everyone will have his opinion, of course, and everyone's guesses will change based on events (I, for instance, had thought Graham would have made an impact, and I couldn't have been more off the mark). As of now, I'd give Dean a 45% chance of taking the nomination; Gephardt 15%; Kerry 10%; Hillary 10% (things would have to break "just right" for her to "parachute in," as you pointed out); and the rest combined 20%. Clark was among the leaders for a few hours, as I recall; it looks like he has the staying power of a soap bubble.
With respect to the general election, I think a failure of our incipient economic recovery is the only thing that could beat President Bush. Certainly I'd feel better about his chances even if the recovery falters if Dean is the nominee. But any Democratic candidate who could manage to couch his image in moderate terms could be dangerous under such circumstances. "It's the economy, stupid" could still resonate if the stock market re-tanks and the payroll rebound reverses.
I'm optimistic with regard to both the economy and the general election. But I don't see it as a lock.
Any bets that you are wrong. Dean will never get the nomination. He attracts white liberal angry white guys. That is it.
Gephardt or Kerry will get the nod from the DNC. If you want to draw an analogy, Dean is to the Democrats what Buchanan was to the Republican party.
If history is any indication of what can happen in an election, Dean like Buchanan will do well in the primaries, but when it came to crunch time ...... well you know the rest of the story.
The latest poll out of Iowa shows Gephardt inching ahead. If the economy holds on its pace Bush will win. If not, then it's up for grabs.