The Physics of Extra-Terrestrial Civilizations

http://www.mkaku.org/ ^ | unk | Michio Kaku

[Michael Barnes]

Some interesting stuff. Throw some multi-verse in there, then we'll be cooking like Level III's...

[LiteKeeper]

YEC INTREP

[sourcery]

	Summoning the usual suspects...
"Do not meddle in the affairs of Wizards, for they are subtle, and quick to anger!"

[Sabertooth]

((((((growl)))))

[PatrickHenry]

PING. [This ping list is for the evolution side of evolution threads, and sometimes for other science topics. FReepmail me to be added or dropped.]

[Ronin]

Interesting read.

Bump.

[Ogmios]

Thanks for the ping, I like it a lot!!

[Congressman Billybob]

The premise of Carl Sagon is that there must be advanced civilizations in the universe, because there are "billions and billions" of stars. Some of those billions have planets capable of supporting life on the carbon cycle, the nitrogen cycle, or some other cycle. And some of those billions of planets have been stable for millions of years longer than our relatively new Earth.

However, Henrico Fermi pointed out the flaw in this argument, half a century ago. He said to take as a given all that predecessors of Sagan were saying decades ago. If all that is true, these greater civilizations would have already spread throughout the Universe. Fermi asked, simply, "Why aren't they here?"

The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle (also found in the Federation's constitution), the principle of "non-interference." The conclusion that higher civilizations have already found us, concluded that we are a Type 0 civilization, and have chosen to leave us alone until the millenia have passed and we have become a glatactically-civilized civilization. That makes sense to me.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, "Open Judicial Mouth, Insert Foot," discussion thread. IF YOU WANT A FREEPER IN CONGRESS, CLICK HERE.

[js1138]

Klaatu Barada Nikto

[sourcery]

"Do not meddle in the affairs of Wizards, for they are subtle, and quick to anger!"

Staring into the Singularity

[Ogmios]

...alone until the millenia have passed and we have become a glatactically-civilized civilization

Yeah, like that's gonna happen...

Sorry, don't mean to sound negative about that, because I wholeheartedly agree with that assumption, but the fact is at the rate we are going, the terrorists will make darn sure that there is no peace in our time, and will do their best to kick us back to the 12th century.

As long as we are killing each other off in such droves, they are going to keep to themselves.

We must look like a bunch of barbarian savages to any that might be watching.

[Not now, Not ever!]

Bump, Bttt, as a bookmark

[Physicist]

For example, the ultimate measure of a rockets capability is measured by something called “specific impulse” (defined as the product of the thrust and the duration, measured in units of seconds).

So thrust is unitless?

Specific impulse is the integrated thrust for a given amount of fuel (which is force times duration), divided by the weight of that amount of fuel on the surface of the Earth (which is mass times the acceleration due to gravity).

[PatrickHenry]

The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle

There are more explanations than that. Google on "Fermi paradox" and you'll find a rather large literature on the subject.

[mrsmith]

The idea that we'd run away from a supernova instead of "re-engineering" the sun never made sense to me- why assume we will never be able to do something we already can nearly conceptualize.

The same with the end of the universe scenario. Why postulate that man will not be there at the end and have the ability to determine what happens? Maybe to force another "big bang" if that is the way to save the universe.

[Physicist]

The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle (also found in the Federation's constitution), the principle of "non-interference." The conclusion that higher civilizations have already found us, concluded that we are a Type 0 civilization, and have chosen to leave us alone until the millenia have passed and we have become a glatactically-civilized civilization. That makes sense to me.

Well, it's not the only way to reconcile it. Perhaps the distance between civilizations is large compared to their speed of propagation. Or perhaps--and I think this is the correct answer--civilizations just don't last very long.

[Little Ray]

Actually there is some question as to whether or not "billions and billions" are relevant. In Alchemy of the Heavens ( http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0385472145/qid=1067894396/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/104-8385362-0586309 ) the authors suggest that the conditions that gave rise to (allegedly) intelligent life on Earth may be vanishingly rare. Basically the gas giants of the Solar System and the Moon act as a giant broom reducing the frequency of environment-altering impacts.
Intellgent life may be vary rare indeed.

[sleepy_hollow]

Interesting speculation, but I agree with Fermi and BillyBob. If Sagan was even close to correct, we'd have seen them by now. A jupiter sized planet is not particularly hospitable to life as far as we can tell so far. I am all for exploring space, don't get me wrong, but I just don't think we will find any life.

One interesting logical flaw in the "non-interference" theory (the one that says the aliens have found us but have left us alone for awhile) is that it is basically saying the absence of evidence is evidence. The fact that we have not seen aliens means they are there (or might be there) but are not showing themselves. This is extremely problematic from an epistemological perspective. That is, we can never know if it is true or not as long as the aliens decide to refrain from contact. It's basically useless and an intellectual dead end.

Finally, exploring space is fine for its own sake as far as I am concerned. But, when the goofy people start their fantasy stuff it really creeps me out personally. They go overboard beyond the realm of facts and science into this weirdo land that just does not make sense. What business case or scientific curiosity case could ever be made for these Von Neumann probes? Where would anyone ever get the capital to develop these? Who would ever invest such enormous sums? Look how absurd this is when compared to what little has been accomplished with the space station and how much has been spent on it.

I think separating fantasy (not dreams) from reality is key to making any progress. Otherwise we are simply fooling ourselves and will never get anywhere in space. It will be costly. People will die. And we should go anyway because it's there to be explored. Beyond that, we will see what we will see.

[Liberal Classic]

If a Von Neumann probe only finds evidence of primitive life (such as an unstable, savage Type 0 civilization) they might simply lie dormant on the moon, silently waiting for the Type 0 civilization to evolve into a stable Type I civilization. After waiting quietly for several millennia, they may be activated when the emerging Type I civilization is advanced enough to set up a lunar colony. Physicist Paul Davies of the University of Adelaide has even raised the possibility of a Von Neumann probe resting on our own moon, left over from a previous visitation in our system aeons ago.

(If this sounds a bit familiar, that's because it was the basis of the film, 2001. Originally, Stanley Kubrick began the film with a series of scientists explaining how probes like these would be the most efficient method of exploring outer space. Unfortunately, at the last minute, Kubrick cut the opening segment from his film, and these monoliths became almost mystical entities)

[justanotherfreeper]

Intellgent life may be vary rare indeed.

God knows it's rare here!