The Physics of Extra-Terrestrial Civilizations

http://www.mkaku.org/ ^ | unk | Michio Kaku

[truthandjustice1]

Great post. Great book.

[aruanan]

There's also the matter of probability. Whatever the improbability of life arising on its own on earth and evolving to the present level of complexity, the probability of a two such forms of life arising on their own elsewhere and achieving a similar level of civilization is the first improbability squared. For three such civilizations, the probability is the first cubed and so on. The likelihood is that we're all there is.

[RadioAstronomer]

This is very seat-of-the-pants, so I'll let RadioAstronomer mop up after me.

Many look at the heliopause (the boundary of the solar wind particles and the interstellar particles) as the edge of the solar system. So how far out is the heliopause? It has been estimated between 80 to 130 AUs. So one light day can be considered in the ballpark. :-)

[PatrickHenry]

Once again, you have enlightened me.

[truthandjustice1]

"and have no inkling of how to measure that which is coming to us from the future, we're stuck with a penumbra of present cobbled together through our measurements of past events"

Uh, yeah, what he said.

[Bernard Marx]

Don't forget about Ringworld.

That's for after Halliburton's finished with Iraq. The scuttlebut is that Cheney's already put out a request for bids and proposals.

[RadioAstronomer]

Awwwww. :-) You are most welcome.

[boris]

"For example, nanotechnology may facilitate the development of Von Neumann probes. As physicist Richard Feynman observed in his seminal essay, “There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom,” there is nothing in the laws of physics which prevents building armies of molecular-sized machines. At present, scientists have already built atomic-sized curiosities, such as an atomic abacus with Buckyballs and an atomic guitar with strings about 100 atoms across.

Paul Davies speculates that a space-faring civilization could use nanotechnology to build miniature probes to explore the galaxy, perhaps no bigger than your palm. Davies says, “The tiny probes I'm talking about will be so inconspicuous that it's no surprise that we haven't come across one. It's not the sort of thing that you're going to trip over in your back yard. So if that is the way technology develops, namely, smaller, faster, cheaper and if other civilizations have gone this route, then we could be surrounded by surveillance devices.”

Furthermore, the development of biotechnology has opened entirely new possibilities. These probes may act as life-forms, reproducing their genetic information, mutating and evolving at each stage of reproduction to enhance their capabilities, and may have artificial intelligence to accelerate their search."

This argument, plus the arguments in Rare Earth, leave little doubt that we are alone at least in this galaxy and perhaps in the universe. I would put the upper limit of intelligent species in the galaxy at no more than 100 and possibly no more than ten.

Otherwise we would be having visitors (large size, the guys who built the nanorobot probes).

The Fermi Paradox.

--Boris

[Congressman Billybob]

Nope, the probability runs differently. Our planet revolves around a relatively new star. We've had three billion years to develop to our present state, with most of the real progress in just the last 4,000 years.

There are billions of suns, many with potentially habitable environments, that are ten billion years old. The odds are in favor of life developing on several of those, and having the time to far outstrip our current state of development.

Unless we are absolutely unique, odds are we have neighbors who are way ahead of us.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, "Open Judicial Mouth, Insert Foot," discussion thread. IF YOU WANT A FREEPER IN CONGRESS, CLICK HERE.

[petuniasevan]

I use Starry Night Pro, and love it. The only problem I have is there seems to be a glitch which overestimates the luminosity of giant and supergiant stars.

You're getting a 16" Dob from Meade? I'm jealous.

From the looks of it you won't be casually tossing it in the trunk to haul it to dark-sky sites... ;-D

[RadioAstronomer]

I don't think I completely agree. Machines fail over time, and self-replicating ones would have replicating errors over time. Also, why would a race use the extremely valuable resources of their solar system to create one-way journeys that would give zero return for their effort?

[Junior]

Pluto isn't the frontier marker for our solar system. You still have the Kuiper Belt (of which Pluto is one of the bigger and closer objects) and the Oort cloud, which extends something like half a light year out.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Maybe dark matter is more than subatomic particles.

[Junior]

Pluto isn't the frontier marker for our solar system. You still have the Kuiper Belt (of which Pluto is one of the bigger and closer objects) and the Oort cloud, which extends something like half a light year out.

[RadioAstronomer]

See post 123 :-)

[Fitzcarraldo]

self-replicating ones would have replicating errors over time

build into the device a means for consulting the original blueprints

[RadioAstronomer]

The bigger question is what’s the point. And indeed I think self-replicating machines would experience evolution.

[Michael Barnes]

Times they are a changing, and Dad now get's some of his own paycheck...I live semi-sticks, but there are NO ctiy anything around here..A few minutes drive, I'll be in heaven, optically speaking..Can't wait to get the kids hooked on this.

[Michael Barnes]

Maybe the race is something like out of ID4, locusts.. Travelling and pileaging along the way?

[Michael Barnes]

oops..missed your premise..