Crawford: Dean and Hillary Most Likely Nominees

NewsMax.com ^ | 11/02/03 | Carl Limbacher and NewsMax.com Staff

[kattracks]

Congressional Quarterly's 2004 campaign correspondent Craig Crawford is keeping score on the Democratic Party's pack of presidential hopefuls, and Friday night he delivered his interim assessment.

As the race stands now, either Howard Dean or Hillary Clinton will be the Democrats' nominee, he claims - whether or not Sen. Clinton decides to throw her billing records into the ring.

Crawford, who doubles as MSNBC's chief political analyst, told ABC Radio network's John Batchelor & Paul Alexander that he handicaps the race on the basis of five factors: money, message, organization, polls and "buzz."

On Sen. Clinton's chances to become her party's standard-bearer, Crawford said: "I give her 1 to 10 odds if she runs, that's a 90 percent chance for the nomination. I say it's 3 to 2 odds that she will run, that's a 40 percent chance.

"And I give her 3 to 1 odds, a 25 percent chance, if she doesn't run - of winning," he told the ABC radio duo. "That's my brokered convention scenario."

How does Clinton stack up against Dean?

"I've moved him up to 3 to 2, which gives him a 40 percent chance of winning the nomination," Crawford told the radio duo. "The money primary looks as though he's going to win."

Nine of the last 10 Democratic nominees had bested their competition in fund raising, the CQ reporter noted, adding, "It's a better predictor [of who'll get the nomination] than winning Iowa or New Hampshire."

The future doesn't look nearly as rosy for the other seven contenders.

Sen. Joseph Liberman has experienced "the most dramatic tumble since I started handicapping in March," said Crawford. "There's no money. He can't run a national campaign - that's why he pulled out of Iowa." He gives the Connecticut Democrat a 4 percent chance.

Sen. John Edwards had a disappointing third quarter on fund raising. "But Hollywood's showing some interest," said Crawford, noting a recent Edwards fund raiser thrown by actor Dennis Hopper. The North Carolina senator has a 10 percent chance of winning the nomination, he said.

Of Gen. Wesley Clark, Crawford complained, "His performance in the debates has been consistently weak, especially when he's attacked." Crawford described Clark's campaign organization as "just a mess" and gives him only a 10 percent chance.

On Sen. John Kerry, Crawford noted, "For four or five months I had him in the lead." But he now thinks the trendline for the Massachusetts Democrat's presidential bid is "down." He has an 11 percent chance.

There's better news for Rep. Dick Gephardt, who, Crawford said, had "seen the most dramatic rise in my handicapper." The Missourian is now "coming across well" to crowds and has a 25 percent chance of winning the nomination.

The CQ reporter did not offer assessments for Carol Moseley Braun, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich.

[Clemenza]

Craig Crawford is the same idiot who predicted that McBride would beat Jeb in Florida.

[rs79bm]

Isn't it nice to nominate someone who isn't even in the race? I mean, how stupid is that?

[F.J. Mitchell]

That choice for Veep would be perfect for Dean. Up beside the Vice President, the First Lady would be a raving beauty.

[F.J. Mitchell]

"I mean, how stupid is that?"

Quayle wasn't in the race and GHW Bush chose him.

[pabianice]

On Sen. Clinton's chances to become her party's standard-bearer, Crawford said: "I give her 1 to 10 odds if she runs, that's a 90 percent chance for the nomination. I say it's 3 to 2 odds that she will run, that's a 40 percent chance.

Her election as president would mean the end of the United States, one way or another.

[sick1]

Headline should read:

Raciest Correspondent Denies Carol Moseley Braun & Al Sharpton Legitimacy

[duckman]

I wish she would just anounce and get it over with and get her crusty a$$ in the race. Jeez

[Thebaddog]

He's also the dope who's based in San Francisco. What does that tell you about his center of political gravity?

[Oldeconomybuyer]

"Bring 'em on."

[OldFriend]

Crawford is a drunken fool. And Batchelor and Alexander are turning into demonrat hacks.

[newfreep]

Crawford is a spokesman for the DNC - nothing more, nothing less.

I agree, Batchelor has become a liberal rat and joins Alexander. I rarely listen anymore as their anti-American diatribes have grown tiring.

WABC should replace batchelor with Monica Crowley......:-)

[The Wizard]

but what isn't reported here is that none of these assholes, including the beast and her crooked supporters, is going to be president

[Clemenza]

Craig Crawford ping!

Check out #11 and see if you agree.

[Clemenza]

John Batchelor is as good at pretending to be a Republican as he is at pretending to be heterosexual.

[ALOHA RONNIE]

.."IS it SAFE?" = President HILLARY

http://www.TheAlamoFILM.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1556

---

.."IS it SAFE?" = HILLARY on Senate Armed Services Committee..

http://www.TheAlamoFILM.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=629

[tjg]

"Her election as president would mean the end of the United States, one way or another."

She was already president for eight years. If she didn't screw it up beyond repair in that time, I doubt that she can.

[OldFriend]

Used to listen to them at night but now I listen to the FAN....

B&A let Loretta Sanchez on to bash and trash Arnold over a year ago when they wanted to scare him away from running for governor!

Hah, now he's governor anyway!

Both B&A appear to be high on something.....they often have the giggles for no apparent reason.

[OldFriend]

I wish Monica had the two hours that Laura Ingraham has now. For some reason Laura just grates on my last nerve. Two hours of inane opinion is just tooo much. Monica has good guests and while I don't always agree with her, it is interesting and informative.

[bert]

The man gets paid for pulling numbers from his butt.