Solar ALERT: Large CME at 3 AM EDT: possiblepower, communications disruptions October 24

NOAA News ^ | 10/24/2003 | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

[cogitator]

Text below reproduces what is found on linked site; linked site has featured image of MAJOR sunspot group.

Forecasters at the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., observed two dynamic areas of the sun, one of which has produced a coronal mass ejection, or CME, Wednesday morning at 3 a.m. EDT that appears to be Earth-directed. The forecasters are predicting a strong geomagnetic storm, G-3 on the NOAA Space Weather Scales, that should reach Earth on Friday, October 24. (Click here to view larger image from the SOHO spacecraft of the intense solar activity on the sun taken Oct. 21, 2003. Click here to view high resolution version, which is a large file. Click here to view latest images. Please credit “SOHO.”)

NOAA Region 484 developed rapidly over the past three days and is now one of the largest sunspot clusters to emerge during Solar Cycle 23. It is about 10 times larger than the Earth. This region, which is nearing the center of the sun, already produced a major flare, R-3 on the NOAA Space Weather Scales, producing a radio blackout on October 19 at 12:50 p.m EDT. The region continues to grow, and additional substantial flare activity is likely.

Larry Combs, a forecaster with the NOAA Space Environment Center’s Space Weather Operations, said that this region has developed rapidly over the last three to four days. “It’s somewhat unusual to have this much activity when we’re approximately three-and-a-half years past solar maximum,” he said. “In fact, just last week, solar activity was very low with an almost spotless sun.” Solar cycles of high and low activity repeat about every eleven years, and the sun has been moving towards solar minimum for the past three years.

A second intense active region is rotating on the southeast quadrant of the sun. Although the sunspot group is not yet visible, two powerful eruptions occurred on October 21 as seen from the LASCO instrument on the SOHO spacecraft. These eruptions may herald the arrival of another volatile active center with the potential to impact various Earth systems.

Further major eruptions are possible from these active regions as they rotate across the face of the sun over the next two weeks. Satellite and other spacecraft operations, power systems, high frequency communications, and navigation systems may experience disruptions over this two-week period.

[cogitator]

I don't think we need another blackout today; it's chilly outside.

[rwfromkansas]

nothing is going to happen; nothing ever does with these "scary" solar storms.

[cogitator]

After posting this, I found another thread on it, but since I started this, I thought I should provide a solar image. This one shows the active group that launched the CME on October 22nd that was directed at Earth and which may hit us today just off-center, but the really nasty one is just rotating into view on the left-hand side, beneath the Sun's "equator".

[cogitator]

"Nothing" is not always what happens.

"A 1994 solar storm caused major malfunctions to two communications satellites, disrupting newspaper, network television and nationwide radio service throughout Canada. Other storms have affected systems ranging from cell phone service and TV signals to GPS systems and electrical power grids. In March 1989, a solar storm much less intense than the perfect space storm of 1859 caused the Hydro-Quebec (Canada) power grid to go down for over nine hours, and the resulting damages and loss in revenue were estimated to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars."

[The Great RJ]

I'm adding more aluminum foil to my hat just in case.

[discostu]

We owe a tarring and a feathering to the makers of Perfect Storm for putting that idiotic phrase in the general lexicon. "Perfect space storm" puh-lease.

So far doesn't look like this storm has done anything.

[hispanarepublicana]

You should congratulate yourself for not having titled this thread, "Has Anyone Noticed a Host on the Sun?" It's an infamous FReeper lore thread.

[_Jim]

Historically, it seems that satellite damage is discovered weeks after such events ...

[The Dude Abides]

You know, if the sun ever "goes out" we would be in a world of hurt. Events like this remind me of our precarious situation in the Universal Food Chain and reinforce my belief that God is indeed looking out for us.

[geege]

All's we need is our wood burning stove, candles, lots of wine and we'll be OK:0)

[_Jim]

cell phone service

THIS one's pretty much urban myth - nothing space-based is used in systems here ...

[cogitator]

Or if it ever gets a tad brighter. I recommend the short piece of fiction by Larry Niven entitled "Inconstant Moon", which is about such a scenario.

[_Jim]

Pardon me if I squeeze one of these off: Y-A-W-N ...

- - - - -

http://www.cnn.com/TECH/9704/08/solar.flare/

Solar flare heading toward Earth

April 8, 1997
Web posted at: 11:09 p.m. EDT (0309 GMT)

(CNN) -- The sun has produced a storm the likes of which scientists have not seen before, according to a NASA researcher.

The large flare of magnetic energy is expected to hit Earth's upper atmosphere Wednesday afternoon, according to Art Poland, senior scientist with the Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) at the Goddard Space Center in Maryland.

SOHO is a relatively new NASA satellite that is pointed at the sun.

The solar flare was formed Monday when the sun generated a giant shock wave of electrified gases called a coronal mass ejection. SOHO photographs show "a flare going off; you see a shock wave leaving (the sun). Basically, it's a tsunami going across the surface of the sun," Poland said in an interview with CNN.

Solar events like this occur every day. Approximately one in 10 heads toward Earth. But this solar flare is about as large as one that destroyed a broadcast satellite in January.

[hispanarepublicana]

Not sure when it's scheduled to air, but wouldn't it be HILARIOUS if this solar storm disrupted broadcast of CBS hatchett job, The Reagans?

[cogitator]

It doesn't have to be space-based to be affected. If the ionosphere gets active due to the impact of charged particles from a CME, it can affect transmission towers. That's why previous noteworthy storms have knocked out power grids, which aren't space-based either.

[_Jim]

It doesn't have to be space-based to be affected. ... it can affect transmission towers.

Did you not see my reference to cellular service?

The effect whereby High Voltage Transformers as used in HV transmisison systems see *do* DC Current on their windings (THEREBY saturating their iron cores to one side or the other of the BH curve) as induced on long lines between substations *is* well documented.

[_Jim]

... HV transmisison systems *do* see DC Current ...

[Rick.Donaldson]

THIS one's pretty much urban myth - nothing space-based is used in systems here ...

Umm, no, Jim. Not an "urban myth". The devices do not have to be space based. The solar flares, in this particuluar case a cornal mass ejection is technically a "magnetic bottle" which contains plasma and a huge amount of electron radiation.

The electron radiation causes ionization of the "ionosphere" - which will affect things like AM and shortwave radio reception on the planet (not space based) as it interacts with the planet's magnetic field.

Furthermore, the magnetic field itself is on the order of strength similar to what our own planet's magenetic field is. As an example, if you place a strong magnet on a table, and then push another magenet near it, the first will either be attracted or repelled depending on the orientation of the poles of the magenet.

The earths own magenetic field can be disrupted temporarily (and there is a theory that it could be actually flipped - and there is scientific proof that the earths field has actually changed several times throughout the history of the planet).
The MAIN problem however is that the magnetic field can induce spikes of current in existing earth-based systems, in particular the miles and miles of electrical wiring going to your house and from the power plants.

Cell phone disruption can be caused if the power is taken out, or radio systems are "spiked" with a high magnetic field, not UNLIKE an EMP of sorts (as might be generated from a nuclear blast).

In other words, your "urban myth" theory is wrong. All of this is science based, and factual. For the record, I've been an amatuer astronomy for about 3o years, and while I'm not the best astronomer in the world, at least I have a pretty good understanding of the physics involved.

[Barnacle]

Thanks for your post.

Check these shots out. There appears to be rift like activity between the two major sunspots.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-update.html

Anyone have an opinion on this?

[OXENinFLA]

Shields UP!!!