Huge Solar Flare! 10/24/03

http://www.sunspotcycle.com/ ^ | 10/24/03 | FoxNews, www.sunspotcycle.com

[GRRRRR]

SOLAR EXPLOSIONS: Solar activity is high. An intense X5-class solar flare erupted today (Oct. 23rd at 8:35 UT) from sunspot 486 near the sun's southeastern limb.

The explosion hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. See the movie. Although the CME was not Earth-directed, it could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field as early as Oct 24th (although the 25th is more likely).

Sunspotcycle.com

Another CME was already en route when this morning's explosion occured. Pictured right, it was launched on Oct 22nd by an explosion near sunspot 484. Forecasters expect it to arrive on Oct. 24th and possibly trigger a strong geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at middle latitudes should be alert for auroras.

[RightWhale]

Neutrons wouldn't seem to be a huge problem unless there are a solid mass of them coming at high speed. Since they are electrically neutral, there wouldn't be a mechanism for collecting and strengthening a stream of them as there is for electrons and positrons, so they will be a diffuse flow. To interact with nuclei they would have to hit nuclei directly, and that would be not all that common. Granted if there is a sufficient concentration and the nuclei are unstable, there could be problems, but overall we should not fear neutron bombardment.

[_Jim]

Doesn't look *too* bad at the present:

The GOES Hp plot contains the 1-minute averaged parallel component of the magnetic field in nanoTeslas (nT), as measured at GOES-12 (W76) and GOES-10 (W134). The Hp component is perpendicular to the satellite orbit plane and Hp is essentially parallel to Earth's rotation axis. If these data drop to near zero, or less, when the satellite is on the dayside it may be due to a compression of Earth's magnetopause to within geosynchronous orbit, exposing satellites to negative and/or highly variable magnetic fields. On the nightside, a near zero, or less, value of the field indicates strong currents that are often associated with substorms and an intensification of currents in the Earth's geomagnetic tail.

Noon and midnight local time at the satellite are plotted as N and M. Default scaling is 0 to 200 nanoTesla. Non-default scaling to include infrequent extreme values is lableled in red to emphasize the change in scale.

From: http://sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/mag_3d.html

[Johnny Gage]

Anyone else have a "brown out/surge" at about 2:50pm CDT?

We had a HUGE brownout, and my dad said they lost power about a 1/2 mile from my office.

[snopercod]

NASA has always been hush-hush about the dosimeter readings for the astronauts. It would be interesting to know how many rems they accumulate during six months on the ISS. Or maybe not...

[rwfromkansas]

That's the only thing that almost always comes from these storms.

I have never lost power, never lost tv, never lost my cell phone, despite multiple flares coming our way in the past couple years.

[Rebelbase]

That was Alderon.

[RonDog]

See also these RELATED threads:

Solar ALERT: Large CME at 3 AM EDT: possiblepower, communications disruptions October 24
			Posted by cogitator On 10/24/2003 7:40 AM PDT with 33 comments NOAA News ^ | 10/24/2003 | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Huge Solar Flare! 10/24/03
			Posted by GRRRRR On 10/24/2003 3:50 AM PDT with 45 comments sunspotcycle.com ^ | 10/24/03 | FoxNews, www.sunspotcycle.com
Big Solar Storm Will Hit Earth Friday
			Posted by webber On 10/23/2003 9:03 PM PDT with 131 comments CBC News ^
THE SUNSPOT CYCLE
			Posted by Mike Darancette On 10/24/2003 9:54 AM PDT with 7 comments Marshall Space Flight Center ^ | 10/23/03 | Marshall Space Flight Center

[Molly Pitcher]

Has anyone seen anything tonite???

Sky conditions here in n.e. Ohio are favorable, and looking n.n.w., above the treeline, I see a rosy glow which reminds me of 2 years ago.

I'm going to wait 20 minutes or so, and check again...

[Molly Pitcher]

Check my note just above...

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

Too overcast in west Michigan to see anything.

If I hadn't just winterized the cabin I would go over there for the weekend and do a little sky watching.

[Centurion2000]

Although the CME was not Earth-directed, it could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field as early as Oct 24th

So what happens if Earth takes one on the chin from one of these monster explosions ?

[Molly Pitcher]

Yes, that cloudcover is headed this way, so if there's to be a night....this is it.

[ejo]

Another AP line: " It's Bushe's fault"... so scream the liberals !!!

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

This is the earth.

This is the earth after being hit by a solar flare.

Any questions?

[Phsstpok]

That's exactly what happened to me here in n.e. Ohio! First inkling of it on FR when I did a late night check....about 10:30, and ran outside. WOW! It was either Oct or Nov....

There's a new major event this AM, linked from Drudge to SPACEWEATHER.COM. It's an X-17 class flare, which they say is the biggest since 89 when there was an X20, which caused the Canadian power grid to fail. However, in the background they say there was an X20 in Jan 01. Now, that might be the event we both remembered, but I think what they're saying in the "since '89" bit is that this is the largest flare pointed towards earth and the Jan 01 event wasn't pointed to earth. I didn't find an event for October or November of 01 of any great magnitude, so I don't know what event you and I saw, but my memory of the timing is about the same as yours.

They are saying this event today could cause northern lights down to the lower latitudes tonight or tomorrow. We'll have to hope the clouds clear up here in Memphis.

[Molly Pitcher]

Thanks!! We have a chance for clear skies tonite (Wed)!